Actually the longest anyone has been on furlough is since January 2003 or about 2 1/2 years. There were 20 of us furloughed right after 9/11/2001, but we were recalled and re-furloughed. There was 1 from the original furlough who did not come back due to military reserve call up, but I think he was considered recalled and re-furloughed. However, he was 54 years old in July 2001 during our new hire class so I do not know if he will ever come back even if recalled prior to age 60.
There are many rumors going around about a "big announcement" soon. Supposedly there have been many meetings in the last week or so and the 2nd quarter results are being withheld to be released with this announcement. The Chief Pilot told more than one pilot that "you will like it"....whatever that means.
If there are no additional planes, we can expect 10 to 20 recalls next spring to cover attrition due to retirements and medicals. At that time, it would cover a 2 year period since the last recalls.
2 of the things generating rumors are that the 717 long-range ferry tanks have been broken out by maintenance and are getting attention. This usually does not happen unless a 717 is getting ready for a flight to the coast. Since we are not getting rid of any and all the maintnenace is done inhouse, this leaves only a couple of options - all positive. The 2nd is that maintenance has obtained an additional couple of 767 ACARS sets and printers and that these are being tweaked. Again this leads to the conclusion that there are more planes coming for them to be used in. We are not having ACARS problems on the existing planes so....
But remeber, this is all rumor based on what a furloughed guy stuck in Vegas with limited HAL contact is hearing. I am remaining hopeful, but I also know all previous rumors have proven false.
I do not think management is waiting for Aloha to crash or recover. They are waiting for planes that are compatible with our fleet. I was told from a union rep that all the existing used 767s that have been looked at so far would have lease rates higher than new ones by the time they were reconfigured. Further, management does not want to lease new ones because of the required 20+ year leases. They want to be able to go to the 787 or another aircraft without having to worry about 20+ year leases. HAL has hired a guy whose job is to travel the world looking at 767s as they become available. Also, getting 757s instead is an option, but it would take a very good deal with a minimum of 6 or 7 planes to have it finacially doable due to the required spare parts inventory (supposedly only 15-20% compatible parts with the 767).
Bottomline is that I am cautiously optimistic that I will be recalled within the next 2 years, hopefully sooner. Out CEO has stated numerous times to the press and employees that we need expansion to continue to succeed financially. He has stated that we need more frequency to the west coast (especially California) markets, we need to go to the east coast and that Asia is a prime market for us. He has also stated that although it does not seem so when looking solely at load factor, our Austrailian flight is making big bucks due to the cargo it carries. He want to increase those flights too.
Ranch Capital's game plan when they started bidding on us in bankruptcy was to double our size in a 5 or so years. Over the 12-18 months it took for them to actually get control, fuel has risen dramatically. Ranch still says they want to double the fleet size, but at a slightly slower rate. Only time will tell if they are being truthful or not.