HA vs. AS

[xjhawk]

Both are great companies with some great people (the ones I have run into anyways). I would work at either if they would have me but sadly HAL is off my radar as some family issues trump my want to work in a state I that I have lived in for three years and would love to move back too. I do not think a commute from MSP to HNL would be feasible. Moving is not an option as being near my kids is a higher priority. A commute to the west coast might not be idea, but manageable.

 

[Full of LUV]

My guess is the 95 will be hired at whatever rate training can absorb them. Than the next round will start. Haven't looked that closely, but perhaps widebody Captain in 6 years may be possible if things keep going the way they are.
Anybodies guess what could happen in a merger. One thing that does help HA pilots is the career expectations provision in Macasskill (sp?) Bond. The new hires at Hawaiian have the career expectations of either inter-island flying or Transpac widebody flying.
Rumors of airlines merging with Hawaiian are always out there, for years now, DAL pilots are always starting that rumor, nothing yet. Their was even a some AK people that thought AK was going to merge with us. Nothing ever comes of these rumors so far!
Our business plan simply doesn't work with any other airline. Hawaiian is all about flying to markets were they can fill up a widebody with people that want to start their vacation to Hawaii on Hawaiian Air.

Bottom line is though, money talks. But both AK or HAL would not go cheap, and if they ever did merge into DAL, much of what makes them desirable would be lost. In other words, paint another name on the side of Hawaiian or Alaska and much of the reason passengers ride on them would be gone. They are both highly rated niche carriers that people like. Hawaiian has a very loyal passenger base that would be squandered in any merger, I suspect the same holds true for Alaska.

Dan,
While I agree with your assessment on HAL's successful marketing as the vacation airline and the locals preference, ultimately if DAL or someone else did purchase them (probably for their route structure and newly operational A330's) people would not cancel their vacations and the locals have to fly someone to get to the other islands. Ultimately it would be for the acquiring airline to market and staff the remains appropriately. There is no doubt that HAL is seen as the hometown airline in Hawaii, but not so sure Go would fill in if Hawaiian went to another name.

 

[Full of LUV]

Notice VERY LITTLE overlap with Delta. The only routes that overlap are SEA to ATL, MSP, and HNL. That's it. ....



Bye Bye---General Lee

Heh, no reason to pee in your Wheaties bowl. AK has done a nice job of establishing 737 service as the norm to Hawaii years ahead of SWA...(and a couple of years after Aloha).

 

[igneousy2]

Are you being facetious about AS's fleet growth? Since this thread hasn't descended into the usual FI chaos, I thought I'd throw in the "planned" fleet growth over the next few years.

From the Alaskaair.com newsroom:

2012, net +6 ending with 123.

2013, net +6 ending with 129.

2014 net +3 ending with 132.

I know it's not explosive growth, but not insignificant. I haven't looked at actual numbers, but I'm willing to bet our aircraft utilization is way up too. We're seeing more and more redeys. If the utilization rate went from 11 hrs/day to 12 hrs/day that would be like adding another 10 airplanes to our fleet.

Yes, this is all true, however, this is a large difference between AS & HA, this is a very slow steady growth, but is it significant? First off, the first 3 of 2012 has already happened, so going forward we are talking about 120 to 132 in 2 1/2 years which is about a 10% increase means going from bidding 330 in SEA to bidding 300...or "middle reserve" to "senior reserve". Hardly a significant move in that much time.

OTOH, our seniority list is smaller than it was in 2006 thanks to the new contract and single fleet.

Rumor has it the May bid was just a warmup. The next one will be much bigger.

I talked to Crew Planning and last bid should be considered "average" +/- with a new bid coming out every 3 months or so...at least that was the plan today...which will change tomorrow.

I also heard the company approached the union about opening up satellite bases in the Bay Area, San Diego, and HNL. I'm sure the union said, "you can do that in accordance with our contract. Oh yah, there's no provision for that."

I think a Hawaii base is a no brainer going forward, I think having reserves in Hawaii in addition to having to rent 200+ hotel rooms a night in the islands is making the economics more and more compelling.


I've seen a few captains crack a smile with the prospect of a HNL base. I think that's the least likely of the three rumored bases, since the pay rates section of our contract would have to be reopened (not too much of a factor since the union and company are already negotiating), but even more prohibitive would be the expense of moving 50ish crews to open the base.

As being from Hawaii I can tell you that the average stay of a mainlander with dreamy eyes of Hawaii is about 18 months...then the rock fever hits...the reality of an $800,000+ mortgage if you want a yard in a descent neighborhood...the income tax...the $18,000/year Punahou/Iolani tuition because the pubic schools are in pretty bad shape...the fact that it's an insanely long journey to anywhere but the west coast...they'll be back in Gig Harbor in no time. If we ever get a Hawaii base...you heard it here first...it will not be senior long (ESPECIALLY for FO's)

The only guys that seem to make it are the surfers, so unless the Captain's got streaks of Ehu hair from surfing Point Panic on his HNL overnights all month, I wouldn't give those wide-eyes much credence.



From management: Our first of 22 ETOPS-equipped 737-900ERs will enter service in early November. Seating capacity is slated for 181 (16 first, 165 coach). This translates to nine more seats than our current -900s and 24 more than the -800s. The increased capacity will allow us to grow while keeping costs down at the same time. Essentially, the -900ER will help Alaska remain competitive as other carriers continue expanding into our territory.

in other words: the increased capacity will allow us to grow while keeping the number of additional airframes to a minimum.

I'm not trying to say being at or going to AS will be bad...In fact, I think it is more clear than just about anywhere else what the next 3-5 years are going to look like, and I think Alaska is in pretty good shape.

I am genuinely interested in what people think the better move would be from this point looking forward for a new hire/bottom of the list pilot contemplating Alaska or Hawaiian.

 

[fly4surf]

Are you thinking about the jump back to Hawaii/HAL?

No one has the proverbial crystal ball but both places seem good right now.

Alaska's growth seems less scary, HAL hopefully can sustain what so far has been a good and slightly profitable boom.

 

[igneousy2]

Are you thinking about the jump back to Hawaii/HAL?

No one has the proverbial crystal ball but both places seem good right now.

Alaska's growth seems less scary, HAL hopefully can sustain what so far has been a good and slightly profitable boom.

I have my stuff in...we'll see what happens. Some things have changed on my personal side that makes it possible where HA wasn't really an option before...we'll see.

It's true that AS's growth seems less scary, but that being said...it's also less scary to have more people under you on the seniority list when things go south.

AS is more financially sound then HA...for sure...AS pays cash for our new airplanes, HA is yet to secure financing on the remainging A330/A350's....we have much lower debt, "approaching Southwest levels" as one analyst put it. But to me that means that management at HA is on the same page as the pilots...this growth HAS to work. Because AS owns 30 airplanes outright and doesn't owe as much money...it's a no brainer for management to park them in the desert or sell them to Asia the minute things go south. All of this financial soundness/security has been great for the stockholders, but has not benefited the pilots one bit. We had 10% of our pilots on the street during a time that Alaska Airlines was THE MOST PROFITABLE it has ever been.



If I was hired this past December at HA, I would be at the same relative seniority that I am at Alaska now at over 5 years. If I were to get in one of these first few classes of this next push, I would be slightly better off in relative seniority at HA then I would be at AS in 2 years under managements current plans.

BUT...on the flip side...I hate interviewing, I don't want to go through another probation period, I'm just getting used to the idea of 21 days of vacation a year...not to mention the 100K+ financial loss over the first couple of years...although I do have a plan to mitigate that...what if the music stops before the two years is up.

BUT if similar management stays in place over the next 30 years, I see this continued strategy of anemic growth in airframes in good times with flat or even shrinking numbers of airframes...all while hitting managements target of 6% growth of ASM's. I think we will see another option exercise here in the next few months and I think it will be 900ER's and I think it will be to replace our remaining 700's and 400's. A 900ER has about FIFTY more seats than a 700. Can you say 5 more years of stagnation.

BUT the turtle beat the hare!

Ahhhh!!!!!!!!

 

[AK737FO]

I don't understand how you can be so doom and gloom when our company is literally kickin A$$ and takin names. A pay raise is on the way in the next contract, PBP will continue to chip in another 5+% each year, and in about 3 years you can be a Captain if you want.
If you would rather live in HI, then I understand. But if you're thinking of swapping companies looking for greener grass, I think you will experience an epic fail.

 

[igneousy2]

I don't understand how you can be so doom and gloom when our company is literally kickin A$$ and takin names. A pay raise is on the way in the next contract, PBP will continue to chip in another 5+% each year, and in about 3 years you can be a Captain if you want.
If you would rather live in HI, then I understand. But if you're thinking of swapping companies looking for greener grass, I think you will experience an epic fail.

Hawaii is the major factor with HA true...but, how are you figuring 3 years to upgrade? Im at 1300 currently...how is that 3 or even 4 years from here? I'm not really concerned with upgrade..but shouldn't I be able to holster least hold any base I want with a line by now. Captain in 3 years??? I'm not sure I could hold a line in SEA by then.

Our company is kickin ass and taking names...profit wise...but I'm not as hopeful seniority list movement wise.

Anyway...didn't intend for this to be a flame...just presenting what I see.

 

[Dan Roman]

FWIW Igneousy, clearly you have a number with a solid airline and to give that up would be no small decision. Alaska seems as solid as they come right now. Hawaiian is in very good shape too. The reality is the biggest risk to anyone on the bottom of either airline is the potential of a merger. Although if someone bought Alaska they would have to be financially sound enough to do it, which probably means a solid future down the road and they would also be planning a strong presence in the N.W. The same line of thinking applies to HA.
The only reason I could see jumping to HA would be to live in Hawaii. Those of us that do and love it wouldn't change seniority numbers with anyone. It's been well worth it even when HA was on thin ice and paid less than most.
I had to laugh at your anology about surfers, (I am a life long surfer and live on the North Shore), but we have plenty here that don't surf and love living here. It is expensive, (about on par with SFO?) but that also means you can make some very good real estate investments over time. Many do, if you get in the market, you will have something to show for it. It sounds like you have lived here, so you know the score. Although it is getting more and more crowded. Intersting to note, we have a LOT of retired HA pilots that now live in the NW. Personally, I really like the NW and could live there if I didn't like Hawaii and surfing so much.
I do know a guy who quit Alaska, he went to Aloha and is now at Hawaiian in a position to upgrade in a few years. I also know someone who quit HA to go to AK. The moral being you never know what will happen, so I would suggest planning on a lifestyle you want and than do what you can to support it. If you really miss Hawaii and want to live here, Hawaiians a very good gig. You would probably be A330 F/O with great trips in a reasonably short time. We are getting 15 more and have reduced the amount of 767's we are parking. Every new city we have gone to is doing well. Our management has about a 90% approval rate by the employees (you can always find someone to complain though). Most here are quite happy to be here. Any new city we add will be interesting. You should fly up the list, but any change is a gamble. HA is definitely expanding aggressively and that that is always a little scary, but so far the are doing it right and it seems to be working quit well.

 

[Boxboy]

Hawaii is the major factor with HA true...but, how are you figuring 3 years to upgrade? Im at 1300 currently...how is that 3 or even 4 years from here? I'm not really concerned with upgrade..but shouldn't I be able to holster least hold any base I want with a line by now. Captain in 3 years??? I'm not sure I could hold a line in SEA by then.

Our company is kickin ass and taking names...profit wise...but I'm not as hopeful seniority list movement wise.

Anyway...didn't intend for this to be a flame...just presenting what I see.

Dude, I say do what makes sense to YOU and what makes you happy. I think HAL is a great place to work, especially if you want to live in Hawaii! They definitely have the variety of flying that AS doesn't offer-island hopping, mainland, and real international flying moving big iron (I, for one, don't ever care to fly long hauls..... been there done that). HAL seems to have a better growth plan than AS and they are actually following through with it.
As for AS, it's a good place to work, as long as they keep the SoCal base open . AS, IMHO, doesn't have the talent or the balls to grow. They sure talk the talk but can't even crawl the walk, if you know what I mean. Growth to them is re-allocating jets from one market to another. I'll believe it when I see it and so far, I haven't seen a whole lot to convince me otherwise. Whatever choice you make, I don't think that you can go wrong. Both companies are viable companies and both are small enough to be swallowed by a giant. Good luck!

 

[Full of LUV]

Hawaii is the major factor with HA true...but, how are you figuring 3 years to upgrade? Im at 1300 currently...how is that 3 or even 4 years from here? I'm not really concerned with upgrade..but shouldn't I be able to holster least hold any base I want with a line by now. Captain in 3 years??? I'm not sure I could hold a line in SEA by then.

Our company is kickin ass and taking names...profit wise...but I'm not as hopeful seniority list movement wise.

Anyway...didn't intend for this to be a flame...just presenting what I see.

One last thing, if you have kids and they have aptitude, don't forget to factor in $16K for private school (at least for high school). Most places with high cost of living have good schools to go along, HI has high cost of living and not so great public schools unless you live in Kahala or have no college intentions.....Beautiful place to live, but you realize quickly that all the politicians and power brokers use private schools (some of the most prevalent and best in the country, just as the president, a Punahou grad) so the public high schools are here to take attendance.
LUV

 

[AK737FO]

Prior to age 65, upgrade time around here was about 8 years. Today it is running 11 years. The company has said (and our MEC concurs with their numbers) that they will hire about 100 per year till the cows come home. As we start loosing our blue haired gummers it will accelerate.
It is hard to wrap my mind around it, but if these numbers hold true (no terrorists, no accidents, no major world problems) you and I should go up 300 numbers in the next three years. What will that do for you? I think we will see upgrade time come back down into the 8 to 9 year range over the next 3 to 4 years.
If HI is calling you, by all means go live your life where you feel you need to live it, but don't kid yourself about AK being stagnant.

 

[Mookie]

Prior to age 65, upgrade time around here was about 8 years. Today it is running 11 years. The company has said (and our MEC concurs with their numbers) that they will hire about 100 per year till the cows come home. As we start loosing our blue haired gummers it will accelerate.
It is hard to wrap my mind around it, but if these numbers hold true (no terrorists, no accidents, no major world problems) you and I should go up 300 numbers in the next three years. What will that do for you? I think we will see upgrade time come back down into the 8 to 9 year range over the next 3 to 4 years.
If HI is calling you, by all means go live your life where you feel you need to live it, but don't kid yourself about AK being stagnant.

...and to ad to this, with 48 hotel rooms a night in both HNL and OGG, don't be hugely surprised with a base on the islands at some point.

Mookie

 

[igneousy2]

Thanks for all of the replies.

Dan...I am originally from Hawaii, and you're right, there are a lot of people that enjoy the Hawaii livestyle...and some are not even surfers, some golf and fish to that being said, for every one that loves the life, there are 3 that don't make it and leave.

AK737...I don't mean to be all doom-and-gloom but I just cannot see how you can get to 3 years from here for an upgrade for anybody in the bottom 10% of our seniority list. And that's if you're willing to commute to ANC. Add another 2-3 years for whatever number you pick if you want a southern base. I would be willing to bet that for those of us that were furloughed, we are all looking at a 12-14 year upgrade when all is said and done. These early new hires I think will be looking at a relatively rapid upgrade...probably 6 years.

I don't know if the bid results came out yet for the big bid HA just had but my prediction is a 4 year 717 Captain on this bid. Let me know Dan.

Take care....and thanks again for the posts. If i'm lucky enough to get selected, I'm sure i'll be "hemming-and-hahing" all the way until I've handed in my resignation letter.

Take care.

 

[Junkflyer]

Results not out yet. Lots of speculation, but it does seem a four year (the first or second 2008 class) will be very close to or in the left seat of one of the airplane types.