HA vs. AS

[Dan Roman]

Wide body Captain in 6 years for a new hire today?

Dan, you probably know...what time frame is the 90 pilots going to be hired from the last position bid. Is it within the next year or is it THIS year.

Also, in the event of a merger, would a pilot be better off at HA or AS? AS has overall better rates for NBs but they lack wide-bodies all together.

My guess is the 95 will be hired at whatever rate training can absorb them. Than the next round will start. Haven't looked that closely, but perhaps widebody Captain in 6 years may be possible if things keep going the way they are.
Anybodies guess what could happen in a merger. One thing that does help HA pilots is the career expectations provision in Macasskill (sp?) Bond. The new hires at Hawaiian have the career expectations of either inter-island flying or Transpac widebody flying.
Rumors of airlines merging with Hawaiian are always out there, for years now, DAL pilots are always starting that rumor, nothing yet. Their was even a some AK people that thought AK was going to merge with us. Nothing ever comes of these rumors so far!
Our business plan simply doesn't work with any other airline. Hawaiian is all about flying to markets were they can fill up a widebody with people that want to start their vacation to Hawaii on Hawaiian Air.

Bottom line is though, money talks. But both AK or HAL would not go cheap, and if they ever did merge into DAL, much of what makes them desirable would be lost. In other words, paint another name on the side of Hawaiian or Alaska and much of the reason passengers ride on them would be gone. They are both highly rated niche carriers that people like. Hawaiian has a very loyal passenger base that would be squandered in any merger, I suspect the same holds true for Alaska.

 

[Dan Roman]

The 95 new hires will be spread out for the next 12 months... Roughly 8-10 per class every month from July to July.... I also just heard that Brisbane is 90% a sure thing and they are still looking at the another east coast dest....

Was hearing the same thing about Brisbane, but now hearing BOS is looking very likely. Safe to say eventually both, not sure which one will be first now. I think one will be announced very soon and the next in Nov.

 

[whymeworry?]

Is this even a serious question? Put it this way, I'm considering quitting my gig at UAL (I'm old CAL) and applying to HA. Nothing beats Hawaii weather.

As far as who DAL buys, my guess is both carriers. UAL is mostly run by CAL mgmt now. We lost all of our visionaries at CAL to DAL over the past 5 years. All that's left now are a bunch of suits who are afraid of their own shadow. These days, CAL mgmt are generally followers not do-ers, and hugely afraid of anything without "Boeing" written on the nameplate. Frankly speaking, DAL mgmt is the leader in this industry. How else do you think they are able to convince the pilot group to accept such a crappy TA?

Congrats to the HA guys and gals on the success of their airline. IMO, though, DAL will make a play for the within the next 18 mos.

 

[Whine Lover]

In this Industry, unfortunately at this point in History, making a comparison like the above post is the equivalent of:


- "Feces for your Dinner Sir? We have, Human, Goat, Sheep, or Donkey. Which do YOU prefer ? "

Love,

YKW

 

[Sherpa]

I'd have to choose goat for their hearty mountain climate potential to mesh with mine, plus they piss on their beards. It's important to have something in common in a relationship.

 

[xjhawk]

Both are great companies with some great people (the ones I have run into anyways). I would work at either if they would have me but sadly HAL is off my radar as some family issues trump my want to work in a state I that I have lived in for three years and would love to move back too. I do not think a commute from MSP to HNL would be feasible. Moving is not an option as being near my kids is a higher priority. A commute to the west coast might not be idea, but manageable.

 

[Full of LUV]

My guess is the 95 will be hired at whatever rate training can absorb them. Than the next round will start. Haven't looked that closely, but perhaps widebody Captain in 6 years may be possible if things keep going the way they are.
Anybodies guess what could happen in a merger. One thing that does help HA pilots is the career expectations provision in Macasskill (sp?) Bond. The new hires at Hawaiian have the career expectations of either inter-island flying or Transpac widebody flying.
Rumors of airlines merging with Hawaiian are always out there, for years now, DAL pilots are always starting that rumor, nothing yet. Their was even a some AK people that thought AK was going to merge with us. Nothing ever comes of these rumors so far!
Our business plan simply doesn't work with any other airline. Hawaiian is all about flying to markets were they can fill up a widebody with people that want to start their vacation to Hawaii on Hawaiian Air.

Bottom line is though, money talks. But both AK or HAL would not go cheap, and if they ever did merge into DAL, much of what makes them desirable would be lost. In other words, paint another name on the side of Hawaiian or Alaska and much of the reason passengers ride on them would be gone. They are both highly rated niche carriers that people like. Hawaiian has a very loyal passenger base that would be squandered in any merger, I suspect the same holds true for Alaska.

Dan,
While I agree with your assessment on HAL's successful marketing as the vacation airline and the locals preference, ultimately if DAL or someone else did purchase them (probably for their route structure and newly operational A330's) people would not cancel their vacations and the locals have to fly someone to get to the other islands. Ultimately it would be for the acquiring airline to market and staff the remains appropriately. There is no doubt that HAL is seen as the hometown airline in Hawaii, but not so sure Go would fill in if Hawaiian went to another name.

 

[Full of LUV]

Notice VERY LITTLE overlap with Delta. The only routes that overlap are SEA to ATL, MSP, and HNL. That's it. ....



Bye Bye---General Lee

Heh, no reason to pee in your Wheaties bowl. AK has done a nice job of establishing 737 service as the norm to Hawaii years ahead of SWA...(and a couple of years after Aloha).

 

[igneousy2]

Are you being facetious about AS's fleet growth? Since this thread hasn't descended into the usual FI chaos, I thought I'd throw in the "planned" fleet growth over the next few years.

From the Alaskaair.com newsroom:

2012, net +6 ending with 123.

2013, net +6 ending with 129.

2014 net +3 ending with 132.

I know it's not explosive growth, but not insignificant. I haven't looked at actual numbers, but I'm willing to bet our aircraft utilization is way up too. We're seeing more and more redeys. If the utilization rate went from 11 hrs/day to 12 hrs/day that would be like adding another 10 airplanes to our fleet.

Yes, this is all true, however, this is a large difference between AS & HA, this is a very slow steady growth, but is it significant? First off, the first 3 of 2012 has already happened, so going forward we are talking about 120 to 132 in 2 1/2 years which is about a 10% increase means going from bidding 330 in SEA to bidding 300...or "middle reserve" to "senior reserve". Hardly a significant move in that much time.

OTOH, our seniority list is smaller than it was in 2006 thanks to the new contract and single fleet.

Rumor has it the May bid was just a warmup. The next one will be much bigger.

I talked to Crew Planning and last bid should be considered "average" +/- with a new bid coming out every 3 months or so...at least that was the plan today...which will change tomorrow.

I also heard the company approached the union about opening up satellite bases in the Bay Area, San Diego, and HNL. I'm sure the union said, "you can do that in accordance with our contract. Oh yah, there's no provision for that."

I think a Hawaii base is a no brainer going forward, I think having reserves in Hawaii in addition to having to rent 200+ hotel rooms a night in the islands is making the economics more and more compelling.


I've seen a few captains crack a smile with the prospect of a HNL base. I think that's the least likely of the three rumored bases, since the pay rates section of our contract would have to be reopened (not too much of a factor since the union and company are already negotiating), but even more prohibitive would be the expense of moving 50ish crews to open the base.

As being from Hawaii I can tell you that the average stay of a mainlander with dreamy eyes of Hawaii is about 18 months...then the rock fever hits...the reality of an $800,000+ mortgage if you want a yard in a descent neighborhood...the income tax...the $18,000/year Punahou/Iolani tuition because the pubic schools are in pretty bad shape...the fact that it's an insanely long journey to anywhere but the west coast...they'll be back in Gig Harbor in no time. If we ever get a Hawaii base...you heard it here first...it will not be senior long (ESPECIALLY for FO's)

The only guys that seem to make it are the surfers, so unless the Captain's got streaks of Ehu hair from surfing Point Panic on his HNL overnights all month, I wouldn't give those wide-eyes much credence.



From management: Our first of 22 ETOPS-equipped 737-900ERs will enter service in early November. Seating capacity is slated for 181 (16 first, 165 coach). This translates to nine more seats than our current -900s and 24 more than the -800s. The increased capacity will allow us to grow while keeping costs down at the same time. Essentially, the -900ER will help Alaska remain competitive as other carriers continue expanding into our territory.

in other words: the increased capacity will allow us to grow while keeping the number of additional airframes to a minimum.

I'm not trying to say being at or going to AS will be bad...In fact, I think it is more clear than just about anywhere else what the next 3-5 years are going to look like, and I think Alaska is in pretty good shape.

I am genuinely interested in what people think the better move would be from this point looking forward for a new hire/bottom of the list pilot contemplating Alaska or Hawaiian.

 

[fly4surf]

Are you thinking about the jump back to Hawaii/HAL?

No one has the proverbial crystal ball but both places seem good right now.

Alaska's growth seems less scary, HAL hopefully can sustain what so far has been a good and slightly profitable boom.