Govt has to do something!!

[jetflyer]

USMech,

When Chevron says:
"Oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries", they are saying these countries have passed their peak production.

The U.S. passed its peak production in 1971 at 10 million barrels a day.

The U.S.'s oil production has been in decline every year since and now produces about 7 million barrels a day.

The U.S. even brought online the North Slope of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico oil after 1971 and they NEVER STOPPED the overall DECLINE in production, only SLOWED the DECLINE in production.

I think the problem is not as simple as any of us would like to think it is. Advanced recovery techniques are in use everywhere today and will help push the peak back to about 2012-13 according to Koppellar, but as Matthew Simmons says the techniques HAVE BEEN FOUND to act only as "super straws" that allow you to suck the obtainable oil out faster, and after the oil is pulled out, the DECLINES are more severe after peak production. You barely get an increase at all in the TOTAL amount recovered. The Red Sea and Australian oil production for example, after having used all the advanced recovery techniques known to man, have both been declining about 13-15% per year and the total amount predicted to be obtained has not increased! The owners of the largest offshore oil field known to man, known as the Mexican Cantarell oilfield, which has used all known advanced recovery techniques, located just west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico have said their oilfield has reached peak and they expect declines of 10-15% per year.

Saudi Arabia gets 50-60% of their yearly oil production from one oil field, the King of all Kings, the Ghawar Oil Field, which produces over 5 million barrels a day, which is about 6% of total worldwide oil production.

This Ghawar field has been producing oil since the 1940s. Saudi Arabia has only had one significant find, which is a group of oilfields known as the "Hawtah Trend" in the last 4 and a half decades!! Saudi Arabia has found all the significant oil fields they will ever find. Every field in Saudi Arabia is tired and old. Saudi Arabia according to experts is close to joining those 33 of 48 countries in decline very, very soon. Claims by Saudi Oil minister Al Naimi that they can fuel the world for decades to come has even been discounted by past Saudi Aramco executives.

Ghawar, which is very scary to think about will very soon join the likes of other great fields that have passed their peak and declined: Oseberg, Brent, Gullfaks, Prudhoe, Slaughter, Romashkino, Forties, and Samotlor.

Let's hope tired old Ghawar hangs on.

Oil production in decline is just that "in decline" and in almost all cases a countries new production increases will never overcome the declines like in the United States.

Please read this one short article about peak oil production and declines. It is the greatest level headed description I've ever seen about the oil production problem:
www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426

Before you reply, please tell me you've read the very short article.

Jet

 

[FN FAL]

Now there two ways to reduce the price of gas, either increase supply or decrease demand. By combining the two, you'd get the best result. By putting a heavy tax...

Funny you should mention tax. Gas taxes, registration taxes and excise taxes are not mentioned in your post regarding the European fuel price comparison.

Currently, the U.K. is considering using GPS to tax your movement with your vehicle. They want to have higher taxes on segments of roads that are over used during different times of the day, so that people will consider different or alternate routes to avoid getting taxed at the higher rate during rush hour. They will use GPS tracking devices to accomplish this.

From what I read, there is a couple of counties in Oregon that are part of a feasability study regarding using GPS to tax people's movements.

But to correlate to what you're talking about, you also have to consider all the cost aspects of car ownership and usage, not just the price of fuel at the pump and fuel tax.

 

[cforst513]

i'm watching the discovery channel and they're talking about the history of body armor. in suffolk, VA, a cop got shot and was saved by a vest. the file footage showed the gas station where she was. in 1998, gas was $1.07 for regular, $1.12 for super, and $1.18 for premium. sigh......

 

[jetflyer]

In 1998 there was too much production for the world to use.

I remember delivering pizza that year and buying gasoline for $0.83/gallon!!

Oh the good 'ole days.

Jet

edited to add: Dangit I just had a horrible thought: I may be delivering Pizza again one day if these oil prices stay high!

 

[jetflyer]

IKES just saw on CNBC, that JET FUEL PRICES are soaring today up to 3.03/gallon JET FUEL.

They said Jet fuel prices are up 129% this year!

I better brush the dust off my Domino's uniform, lol

Jet

 

[USMCmech]

Saudi Arabia gets 50-60% of their yearly oil production from one oil field, the King of all Kings, the Ghawar Oil Field, which produces over 5 million barrels a day, which is about 6% of total worldwide oil production.

This Ghawar field has been producing oil since the 1940s. Saudi Arabia has only had one significant find, which is a group of oilfields known as the "Hawtah Trend" in the last 4 and a half decades!! Saudi Arabia has found all the significant oil fields they will ever find. Every field in Saudi Arabia is tired and old. Saudi Arabia according to experts is close to joining those 33 of 48 countries in decline very, very soon. Claims by Saudi Oil minister Al Naimi that they can fuel the world for decades to come has even been discounted by past Saudi Aramco executives.

This is what I am most curious about.

What happens to Saudi Arabia when their oil starts to run out?

They have no other resources, yet one of the highest birth rates in the world. It's not like they can grow more. Their entire society is based on selling oil, and spending that money on their citizens. So what happens when that cash isn't there any more?


Jet,

I did read that article. I agree with some of the points, however I don't see a calimity coming in the near future because of high energy prices. Our spending habits will adapt. For example SUV sales have begun to fall, while sales and intrest in hybrid cars is up.

OTOH, anybody hoping to see gas prices fall back to where they were back in the late 90s better not be holding their breath.

 

[jetflyer]

USMCmech,

First, thanks for reading the article. Most people wouldn't have.

As far as Saudi Arabia, I recommend reading a book by Matthew Simmons. He was an adviser to Cheney in his SECRET energy meetings. Hmmm, secret, how come? Peak Oil? It has to be kept a secret as much as possible. I don't blame them.

His book is Twilight in the Desert, "The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy". This 400 page book, available at any bookstore, is very educational on all oil extraction methods and oil production in general and not just Saudi Arabia.

He analyzed over 200 recent Society of Petroleum Engineer (SPE) papers that they've written on the problems occurring in their main fields. They are having serious problems, especially in southern Ghawar. They have THE MOST ADVANCED, I kid you not, recovery techniques known to man. They are very, very advanced in how they pull out the oil. The problem is they have to be, it looks like, to just MAINTAIN, their oil production.

All spare capacity they have currently is HEAVY SOUR, which is very dangerous and toxic, and is the stuff the SHELL PLANT in TX, has been using every time they are having the fires and explosions. The stuff is very dangerous and requires very specialized refineries which we don't have many of in America.

Simmons did an intensive field by field analysis of all of Saudi Arabia's oil and natural gas production. He discusses what will happen when their production goes into decline. You're right about their out of control population boom being a problem. Their natural gas production has been a major, major disappointment and they are having problems supplying their own populations and keeping them happy. Everything there is definitely HEAVILY SUBSIDIZED. Keeping them happy will be very, very difficult as the prices rise as well. Problems will grow even worse as their production declines.

Can you say "MORE PISSED OFF FUTURE TERRORISTS" blaming America!!

Great,
Jet

 

[milehigh6080]

By putting a heavy tax on the ridiculously stupid trucks alot of Americans are buying, you'd see a reduction in demand.

There is already a tax on those ridiculously stupid trucks that a lot of Americans are buying- it's a tax in the form of 15 mpg rather than 30 mpg that they could get from a car. That's pretty taxing if you ask me. Why have more government meddling when the free market will do it all by itself. Sure there are still people buying trucks, but I know a lot of people with trucks who are already trading them in for more fuel efficient cars.

I agree with you about trucks by the way. I love them for their utility factor, but would never drive one on a daily basis, they drive like crap and cost too much money to operate. Just because I don't desire to drive one every day, doesn't mean that I want to tax and punish someone that does. I think the hit at the pump is punishment enough. The market works if you don't mess with it too much.

 

[Snakum]

Negative Weenie ... in 1987, 88, and 89 I bought gas (Benzine) weekly in the little Bavarian town where I lived and in a hundred others over that three year period, and always at between DM 5.00 and DM 6.00 per liter.

Perhaps you're thinking Euros, mate? Cuz I doubt it has come down that much in fifteen years.


Minh

 

[jetflyer]

USMCmech,

I actually think the economic problems will be slow in the making, and might not be as bad, in AMERICA, as in other countries dependent on oil, coal, or natural gas imports. The rest of the world is going to be in more trouble than us, because we have so much coal and oil shale. The problem is going to be ramping those up fast enough to OVERCOME the declines of the world. Many people think it will be impossible.

We need oil shale and coal to oil processes to hurry! These plants are going to take 5 years to even begin producing, and about 10 to begin giving us any amounts that are significant. We need them to really hurry.

From what I've become aware of natural gas is going to become a larger and more more immediate problem.

This winter will be interesting.

Natural gas in North America is close to peak now and natural gas powers a significant amount of our power plants, heats many people's homes, and is needed to process the OIL SANDS!

Liquified Natural Gas(LNG) is much more expensive and we don't have the LNG terminals required to take imports, which take several years to build, to even take in the LNG that is going to be needed. A gigantic port was proposed several years ago on the Baja Peninsula of Mexico, but it still hasn't started construction. Everyone is afraid to build the terminals near them because they are huge, dangerous, and they're all worried about terrorism problems. Damn NIMBYs.

Also Natural Gas does not decline nice and slow like oil production does. When natural gas production in a field begins to decline it falls off a cliff to almost nothing very quickly. Imports are going to be needed immediately.

So the U.S. will have significant natural gas problems first.

We need nuclear power to be ramped up immediately to help overcome some our energy problems. Everyone says it takes 10 years to build a nuclear power plant, but I've heard they can be made as quick as 3 years. I wish Bush would have gotten them started in 2001 when he first tried. We need to begin making the nuclear power plants asap.

The future energy problems are going to be a struggle no matter what. Let's hope conservation and new alternatives can hurry and not too many wars are fought for oil and natural gas.

Jet