Future Pilot Projections

[Quack]

Take this article with a grain of salt, it was produced by one of the largest pilot factories in the world, but thought it to be interesting. Not sure if this has been posted already, but here's the link...

http://www.faa.gov/news/conferences...genda/media/GAF Jim Higgins and Kent Love.pdf

 

[waka]

ATA is mentioned as a "major". They never were a major and their doors were shut almost 5 years ago. This speaks volumes of this projection's accuracy.

 

[labbats]

So from 2003-2008 the majors hired 8000 pilots a year? I don't think so.

Seems like a lot of work was put into that presentation but so much of it doesn't pass the smell test.

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

2 months left for the 2012 hiring boom....



any second now....

 

[pilotyip]

So from 2003-2008 the majors hired 8000 pilots a year? I don't think so.

Seems like a lot of work was put into that presentation but so much of it doesn't pass the smell test.

Maybe their definition of major includes JUS and Skywest?

2 months left for the 2012 hiring boom....
any second now....

Already started, look a AE offering a $5K signing bonus for getting hired. The shortage is appearing at the lower end of the job market, just watch it will move up by 2015, the foggy mirror like 1965 will get you hired at a major.

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

Already started, look a AE offering a $5K signing bonus for getting hired. The shortage is appearing at the lower end of the job market, just watch it will move up by 2015, the foggy mirror like 1965 will get you hired at a major.

Right, so the bottom feeders are where the "boom" is at.

So the real hiring boom is in 2015?

Riiiiight.

Follow that carrot.

 

[pilotyip]

Right, so the bottom feeders are where the "boom" is at.

So the real hiring boom is in 2015?

Riiiiight.

Follow that carrot.

Yep, hiring boom starts at the bottom of food chain. So when the bottom guys take jobs at the next level the food chain effect takes place. For every new job at a major (whatever that is now days), five other jobs are created down the food chain. DAL, hires a pilot, he quits his job at a regional, now regional has to hire pilot from a fractional, the fractional now hires a guy from a 135 on-demand operator, and the on-demand operator hires a CFI into it operation. As far as 2015 experience shortage, only tell will tell if the prediction made by many besides myself, it correct. Much like the DOW 0f 17K, only time will tell.

 

[labbats]

Keep chasing that whale Ahab.

 

[Pickle]

ATA is mentioned as a "major". They never were a major and their doors were shut almost 5 years ago. This speaks volumes of this projection's accuracy.

Not that it matters now, but ATA acheived major status in 2000.

 

[BigEasy]

What a great place, sure had fun working there.