Future Pilot Projections

[Quack]

Take this article with a grain of salt, it was produced by one of the largest pilot factories in the world, but thought it to be interesting. Not sure if this has been posted already, but here's the link...

http://www.faa.gov/news/conferences...genda/media/GAF Jim Higgins and Kent Love.pdf

 

[waka]

ATA is mentioned as a "major". They never were a major and their doors were shut almost 5 years ago. This speaks volumes of this projection's accuracy.

 

[labbats]

So from 2003-2008 the majors hired 8000 pilots a year? I don't think so.

Seems like a lot of work was put into that presentation but so much of it doesn't pass the smell test.

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

2 months left for the 2012 hiring boom....



any second now....

 

[pilotyip]

So from 2003-2008 the majors hired 8000 pilots a year? I don't think so.

Seems like a lot of work was put into that presentation but so much of it doesn't pass the smell test.

Maybe their definition of major includes JUS and Skywest?

2 months left for the 2012 hiring boom....
any second now....

Already started, look a AE offering a $5K signing bonus for getting hired. The shortage is appearing at the lower end of the job market, just watch it will move up by 2015, the foggy mirror like 1965 will get you hired at a major.

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

Already started, look a AE offering a $5K signing bonus for getting hired. The shortage is appearing at the lower end of the job market, just watch it will move up by 2015, the foggy mirror like 1965 will get you hired at a major.

Right, so the bottom feeders are where the "boom" is at.

So the real hiring boom is in 2015?

Riiiiight.

Follow that carrot.

 

[pilotyip]

Right, so the bottom feeders are where the "boom" is at.

So the real hiring boom is in 2015?

Riiiiight.

Follow that carrot.

Yep, hiring boom starts at the bottom of food chain. So when the bottom guys take jobs at the next level the food chain effect takes place. For every new job at a major (whatever that is now days), five other jobs are created down the food chain. DAL, hires a pilot, he quits his job at a regional, now regional has to hire pilot from a fractional, the fractional now hires a guy from a 135 on-demand operator, and the on-demand operator hires a CFI into it operation. As far as 2015 experience shortage, only tell will tell if the prediction made by many besides myself, it correct. Much like the DOW 0f 17K, only time will tell.

 

[labbats]

Keep chasing that whale Ahab.

 

[Pickle]

ATA is mentioned as a "major". They never were a major and their doors were shut almost 5 years ago. This speaks volumes of this projection's accuracy.

Not that it matters now, but ATA acheived major status in 2000.

 

[BigEasy]

What a great place, sure had fun working there.

 

[HA25]

this topic is amusing.... a marketing (er... study) presentation was put together by a major pilot farm to lure more hapless dreamers into this dying career ... anyone surprised?

THERE IS and THERE NEVER WILL BE a shortage of good pilot jobs at Legacy carriers, Southwest, Fedex or UPS..... just a shortage of bottom feeder $20-30K/yr 20+days a month jobs.. and to that I say, good!

 

[pilotyip]

this topic is amusing.... a marketing (er... study) presentation was put together by a major pilot farm to lure more hapless dreamers into this dying career ... anyone surprised?

THERE IS and THERE NEVER WILL BE a shortage of good pilot jobs at Legacy carriers, Southwest, Fedex or UPS..... just a shortage of bottom feeder $20-30K/yr 20+days a month jobs.. and to that I say, good!

That may be true, but where are the future pilots going to get that experience to move up the latter? As posted many times before, here is list of where KYIPs have gone Southwest, Fedex or UPS, DAL, JB, NJ, Atlas, Allegiance, Fortune 10 corp jobs, You have to pay your dues somewhere, where did you pay your sues? BTW DA-20 $35K/yr 11 days off starting first day of ground school. CA in a couple years at $60K

 

[jmreii]

Many pilots have already paid his or her dues many times over with a revelation of jumping off the bs wheel before the train finally wrecks!

 

[pilotyip]

Many pilots have already paid his or her dues many times over with a revelation of jumping off the bs wheel before the train finally wrecks!

Roger that, been there done that, multi dues paying. nature of the business. Want job security school teaching might work.

 

[TMMT]

THERE IS and THERE NEVER WILL BE a shortage of good pilot jobs at Legacy carriers, Southwest, Fedex or UPS..... just a shortage of bottom feeder $20-30K/yr 20+days a month jobs.. and to that I say, good!

This...

 

[livin'thesim]

THERE IS and THERE NEVER WILL BE a shortage of good pilot jobs at Legacy carriers, Southwest, Fedex or UPS..... just a shortage of bottom feeder $20-30K/yr 20+days a month jobs.. and to that I say, good!

Correction: There will never be a shortage of pilots wanting good jobs at legacy carriers. The way you stated it was probably backwards from what you meant.



This is what the coming pilots "shortage" will probably look like:


Top-tier major airlines (and SWA): Ever year, competitive minimums will be slightly reduced. Internal recommendation = almost a guaranteed INTERVIEW. Expedited interview process. Some previously held "musts" like 1000hr 121 PIC, or a 4 year degree waived under certain circumstances or eliminated altogether.

Next-level majors/nationals: All of the above plus dropping of certain "fetish" requirements like 121 PIC time and min jet time. 4 yr degree? What-evah...

Top-tier regionals (if there is such a thing): Hiring the best they can find from those able to meet the regulatory mins.

The rest of the regionals: Hiring just about anyone who meets the regulatory minimums.

Scumbag regionals: Shrinkage due to limited number of pilot candidates, or degraded safety and efficiency due to hiring the kind of people who at one time would have spent a lot of time in Florida, if you get my drift...

Top-tier 135 operators: Hiring the best of the sub-1500 hour crowd. Pay absolute crap to FOs. Have to pay more to good captains due to hiring at majors. Captains with multiple DUIs / aircraft accidents / sex offender status paid same as before. Eventually become Chief Pilot due to being the only one with 3yrs PIC. Guys who are afraid of the EKG and hold only 2nd class will pile up here.

The rest of the 135 operators: FOs will be dirt cheap, possibly paying for their training or even for right seat time. Captains hard to find, except those between 1200 and 1500 hours. Training contracts for everyone!

Scumbag 135 operators: The same pilots that fly for them now, but with ever-so-slightly higher pay.

 

[pilotyip]

Correction: There will never be a shortage of pilots wanting good jobs at legacy carriers. The way you stated it was probably backwards from what you meant.



This is what the coming pilots "shortage" will probably look like:


Top-tier major airlines (and SWA): Ever year, competitive minimums will be slightly reduced. Internal recommendation = almost a guaranteed INTERVIEW. Expedited interview process. Some previously held "musts" like 1000hr 121 PIC, or a 4 year degree waived under certain circumstances or eliminated altogether.

Next-level majors/nationals: All of the above plus dropping of certain "fetish" requirements like 121 PIC time and min jet time. 4 yr degree? What-evah...

Top-tier regionals (if there is such a thing): Hiring the best they can find from those able to meet the regulatory mins.

The rest of the regionals: Hiring just about anyone who meets the regulatory minimums.

Scumbag regionals: Shrinkage due to limited number of pilot candidates, or degraded safety and efficiency due to hiring the kind of people who at one time would have spent a lot of time in Florida, if you get my drift...

Top-tier 135 operators: Hiring the best of the sub-1500 hour crowd. Pay absolute crap to FOs. Have to pay more to good captains due to hiring at majors. Captains with multiple DUIs / aircraft accidents / sex offender status paid same as before. Eventually become Chief Pilot due to being the only one with 3yrs PIC. Guys who are afraid of the EKG and hold only 2nd class will pile up here.

The rest of the 135 operators: FOs will be dirt cheap, possibly paying for their training or even for right seat time. Captains hard to find, except those between 1200 and 1500 hours. Training contracts for everyone!

Scumbag 135 operators: The same pilots that fly for them now, but with ever-so-slightly higher pay.

Nice touch of reality for the FI crowd. I like the fact you recognize that the 4yr degree will become a thing of the past except for the very top tier of the food chain and that if one of these non-degreed guys has 2000 PIC time in the 757 at Atlas, DAL may go "Well the degree thing is not that important"

We just had one of our DC-9 Captains take a job as a Med Evac Helo driver. He flew H-60's in Iraq where he did Med Evac. One of his reasons for leaving was the sense of mission when doing Medical Flights, as opposed to moving auto parts. He said the Med Evac Industry is experiencing an experienced pilot shortage and that is why he after not flying helo's since 2004 was recruited for this position. This is being driven by the fact that the Vietnam Era guys who were the core of this industry are all retiring and there is no longer an unlimited pool of 2000 hour turbin helo time pilots out there to fill these slots. What is more amazing is he took only a small pay cut to make the move.

All part of the coming hiring boom.

BTW One of things that really impact the lower end is the fact that upper management thinks there is no problem finding pilots to do these jobs on the lower end. They are used to tons of guy who will accept low pay, no QOL, and rotten schedules to get a job flying airplanes. It is going to be interesting.

 

[jmreii]

I can see some scenarios bearing fruit as regard to the pecking order of life with the exception of some operators holding onto the degree requirements for dear life. Some operators will take the degree and water down the experience requirements. Makes you wonder if an industry could not see this problem on the horizon earlier, what makes you think he or she can operate this industry in day to day operations!

 

[livin'thesim]

There is probably a big disparity on what people mean by the term "shortage".

My biggest prediction is that the carriers offering the worst pay and QOL will have a very, very hard time finding pilots. (both 121 and 135).

The exception will be 135 FO jobs, where carriers will be able to get people to fly for free, or pay, in order to get from 250 to 1500 hours.


WILD CARD:

Some people want to live in base so badly that they will take jobs at mediocre regionals or 135 carriers just to avoid a commute.

The new rest rules may reduce the number of days off for 121 pilots, making a commute even less desirable than it is now.

There are too many variables at this point. The best we can do in terms of predictions is to identify what those variables are. Even the predictions I made above are sketchy at best.