Future Pilot Projections

[Quack]

Take this article with a grain of salt, it was produced by one of the largest pilot factories in the world, but thought it to be interesting. Not sure if this has been posted already, but here's the link...

http://www.faa.gov/news/conferences...genda/media/GAF Jim Higgins and Kent Love.pdf

 

[waka]

ATA is mentioned as a "major". They never were a major and their doors were shut almost 5 years ago. This speaks volumes of this projection's accuracy.

 

[labbats]

So from 2003-2008 the majors hired 8000 pilots a year? I don't think so.

Seems like a lot of work was put into that presentation but so much of it doesn't pass the smell test.

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

2 months left for the 2012 hiring boom....



any second now....

 

[pilotyip]

So from 2003-2008 the majors hired 8000 pilots a year? I don't think so.

Seems like a lot of work was put into that presentation but so much of it doesn't pass the smell test.

Maybe their definition of major includes JUS and Skywest?

2 months left for the 2012 hiring boom....
any second now....

Already started, look a AE offering a $5K signing bonus for getting hired. The shortage is appearing at the lower end of the job market, just watch it will move up by 2015, the foggy mirror like 1965 will get you hired at a major.

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

Already started, look a AE offering a $5K signing bonus for getting hired. The shortage is appearing at the lower end of the job market, just watch it will move up by 2015, the foggy mirror like 1965 will get you hired at a major.

Right, so the bottom feeders are where the "boom" is at.

So the real hiring boom is in 2015?

Riiiiight.

Follow that carrot.

 

[pilotyip]

Right, so the bottom feeders are where the "boom" is at.

So the real hiring boom is in 2015?

Riiiiight.

Follow that carrot.

Yep, hiring boom starts at the bottom of food chain. So when the bottom guys take jobs at the next level the food chain effect takes place. For every new job at a major (whatever that is now days), five other jobs are created down the food chain. DAL, hires a pilot, he quits his job at a regional, now regional has to hire pilot from a fractional, the fractional now hires a guy from a 135 on-demand operator, and the on-demand operator hires a CFI into it operation. As far as 2015 experience shortage, only tell will tell if the prediction made by many besides myself, it correct. Much like the DOW 0f 17K, only time will tell.

 

[labbats]

Keep chasing that whale Ahab.

 

[Pickle]

ATA is mentioned as a "major". They never were a major and their doors were shut almost 5 years ago. This speaks volumes of this projection's accuracy.

Not that it matters now, but ATA acheived major status in 2000.

 

[BigEasy]

What a great place, sure had fun working there.

 

[HA25]

this topic is amusing.... a marketing (er... study) presentation was put together by a major pilot farm to lure more hapless dreamers into this dying career ... anyone surprised?

THERE IS and THERE NEVER WILL BE a shortage of good pilot jobs at Legacy carriers, Southwest, Fedex or UPS..... just a shortage of bottom feeder $20-30K/yr 20+days a month jobs.. and to that I say, good!

 

[pilotyip]

this topic is amusing.... a marketing (er... study) presentation was put together by a major pilot farm to lure more hapless dreamers into this dying career ... anyone surprised?

THERE IS and THERE NEVER WILL BE a shortage of good pilot jobs at Legacy carriers, Southwest, Fedex or UPS..... just a shortage of bottom feeder $20-30K/yr 20+days a month jobs.. and to that I say, good!

That may be true, but where are the future pilots going to get that experience to move up the latter? As posted many times before, here is list of where KYIPs have gone Southwest, Fedex or UPS, DAL, JB, NJ, Atlas, Allegiance, Fortune 10 corp jobs, You have to pay your dues somewhere, where did you pay your sues? BTW DA-20 $35K/yr 11 days off starting first day of ground school. CA in a couple years at $60K

 

[jmreii]

Many pilots have already paid his or her dues many times over with a revelation of jumping off the bs wheel before the train finally wrecks!

 

[pilotyip]

Many pilots have already paid his or her dues many times over with a revelation of jumping off the bs wheel before the train finally wrecks!

Roger that, been there done that, multi dues paying. nature of the business. Want job security school teaching might work.

 

[TMMT]

THERE IS and THERE NEVER WILL BE a shortage of good pilot jobs at Legacy carriers, Southwest, Fedex or UPS..... just a shortage of bottom feeder $20-30K/yr 20+days a month jobs.. and to that I say, good!

This...