Future of the Regionals - I am Calling It Here

[skywdriver]

Nah. Mainline will sell out the scope in exchange for a little more money to make up for the lost pension.

Regionals will grow and grow.

Not gonna happen. There is no way the company gets scope relief on the new ual contract. There are too many people voting who see the terrible results of the outsourcing that has already taken place. For every guy out there who would sell scope for a little more dough to take with them into retirement, I would bet there are 3 who realize how important scope is and will not sell it. From what I have been told, 90 seat scope isn't even a discussion point in the contract. The company knows there is no way they will get it.

 

[fam62c]

By necessity, the airline industry fleet will look much different with oil at $100 than it did with oil at $30. What made sense in the 1990's doesn't make sense today. I remember when they couldn't make 50 seaters fast enough, now they can't make 737's and A-32X's fast enough. Even the 100 seat EMB is not that hot of a seller because it's not quite in the sweet spot of maximum efficiency and versatility for most domestic routes.

Where we go from here is almost totally dependent on fuel prices. Purchasing an airliner involves tying up a lot of money for a long period of time. The utility and cost effectiveness at various fuel price levels is much less of a gamble when you buy a 737 or a A32X than a smaller jet. As we've seen, these airplanes can work with $30 oil or $110 oil, 50-100 seat jets not so much. It's unlikely that any airline is going to bet on an airplane that only works with cheap fuel given what we know now.

I think the regionals will slowly revert to their roots; feeding hubs with cost efective turboprops.

 

[Flopgut]

From what I have been told, 90 seat scope isn't even a discussion point in the contract. The company knows there is no way they will get it.

True. Mgt can not advance the idea of a 90 seat outsource because they don't even have existing language that allows them to continue to outsource the 70 seat. Eventually, they will have to come to us.

 

[WSurf]

Yet another reason Bombardier and ATR are developing 90 Seat TurboProps.

 

[Freebrd]

But Kit Darby swears there will be a hiring BOOM!

Kit Darby don't surf!!!

 

[Freebrd]

A lot depends on AA bankruptcy and if their management gets to place larger jets at the regionals or not, if they do then the remaining majors will attempt to follow suit

 

[jynxyjericho]

Not gonna happen. There is no way the company gets scope relief on the new ual contract. There are too many people voting who see the terrible results of the outsourcing that has already taken place. For every guy out there who would sell scope for a little more dough to take with them into retirement, I would bet there are 3 who realize how important scope is and will not sell it. From what I have been told, 90 seat scope isn't even a discussion point in the contract. The company knows there is no way they will get it.

A very bold prediction, one that would be a complete reversal of 15 (?) years of current mainline practices. You have anything other than a "feeling" to back this up?

 

[outerlimits]

A very bold prediction, one that would be a complete reversal of 15 (?) years of current mainline practices. You have anything other than a "feeling" to back this up?

That is for sure.

I doubt anyone flying a wide-body at UAL even knows , or cares what scope is.

 

[Erlanger]

Money talks and BS....well you know!

 

[CFIT]

A lot depends on AA bankruptcy and if their management gets to place larger jets at the regionals or not, if they do then the remaining majors will attempt to follow suit

This is the most pivotal element of the regional out source for the foreseeable future and will determine, most likely, everyone's outcome in this industie. IF the GTF is the game changer it's proported to be, and IF the C-series is as efficient as claimed, it will required by every carrier.

Who flies it will be the "million dollar" question. AA management has already proposed to give it to mainline but they have yet to acknowledge anything regarding the pensions. IF AA management gives into the pensions, then they are going to want to outsource the C-series.

If the C-series goes to an out source then AA will have substantial advantage over the others. So much so that the other legacies will need to follow with similar contracts.

So, it appears that AA pilots hold almost all of us at hand. If they hold strong, all should go as the OP has suggested. If they succomb then you can imagine the rest.

What has the past history shown on scope?

How bad do the AA pilots want to recover their pensions?