Future of the Regionals - I am Calling It Here

[skywdriver]

I am betting the new ual contract caps the 70's and requires anything bigger to be flown under the mainline list. The new technology of the small narrowbody jets is being thrown at the 90-110 seat size. As the 50 seat rj's reach their 50k hour cycle, they will be parked and replaced with the new technology airplanes and flown by mainline pilots. As oil continues to climb, the cost savings of outsourcing the flying to older rjs will be more than offset by the fuel savings of the newer small narrow bodies. As this flying is transferred back to mainline, positions will open up and be filled mainly by regional pilots, as the military pool of pilots continues to shrink. The new higher hourly requirements for new hire regionals combined with the decline of the new pilot pool will put pressure on the regionals to increase pay to attrack pilots into the industry as they struggle to staff due to all the vacancies that are created as regionals pilots move to fill mainline vacancies from retirements and mainline expansion with the new small narrowbodies. This will increase their operating costs, further decreasing the benefits to the mainline carriers of outsourcing the flying. The regionals will be the first to feel the effects of a shrinking pilot pool. I think this will be positive for all pilots currently at the regionals as movement begins again and fos are able to upgrade as captains leave for mainline. If we get the contract we should at ual, there shouldn't be a huge paycut for most of the pilots that come over from the regionals, and it should more than make up for itself over the course of a few years, making it a positive change for most everyone in the industry.

So, my prediction is that over the next 10-15 years, there will be half as many regional flights operating, and that the regional industry will be operating efficient shorter haul turbprops for a truly regional feed to mainline. The regional airlines may offer outsourcing opportunities to mainline carriers for maintenance and gate agent functions, and perhaps even flight attendant functions, but not pilots. I hope that doesn't happen for the sake of all the mainline positions, but that will be those employee groups' individual fights against the companies. I think there is a lot more to this than wishful thinking. Outsourcing has been a huge drag on wages and quality of life, and I think the market forces and dynamics of the current industry point towards a reversing of the regional boom that has taken place the past 10 years. In my opinion this change would benefit the majority of those already at the airlines and certainly future pilot generations.

 

[Flyby1206]

Every time two 50seaters are replaced by one 100seater that is a reduction of pilots in the industry. The long thin routes that can only support one 50seat round trip per day will be sacrificed completely. I think those who are waiting for the 'hiring boom' will be waiting for a looong time.

Yes I think the 100seat a/c will go to mainline, but I think the corresponding cuts at regional carriers will be even sharper, maintaining a glut of pilots at all levels.

 

[skywdriver]

Every time two 50seaters are replaced by one 100seater that is a reduction of pilots in the industry. The long thin routes that can only support one 50seat round trip per day will be sacrificed completely. I think those who are waiting for the 'hiring boom' will be waiting for a looong time.

Yes I think the 100seat a/c will go to mainline, but I think the corresponding cuts at regional carriers will be even sharper, maintaining a glut of pilots at all levels.

There are years in the future where retirments at the combined cal/ual will be nearing 800 per year. I realize that 2 50 seaters replaced with 1 100 seater requires 1 less pilot, but retirements should more than offset that reduction. As long as we can fight off cabotage, I think the demand for pilots at us carriers will ensure that all of those out there in the industry continue to have a job. Many will be forced to give up seniority at their current carrier, but hopefully in exchange for better pay, quality of life, and retirement at a mainline carrier. I came up through the regional ranks, and still have many close friends there. I by no means hope for the demise of that industry at the expense of all those still there. I strongly believe that the majority of regional pilots would benefit from this evolution in the industry.

 

[Snapshot]

I realize that 2 50 seaters replaced with 1 100 seater requires 1 less pilot.

1? Try 10.

Airlines typically staff 5 or 6 crews per airframe.
Divide your seniority list by airframes and see what you get.

Remember, the plane works around the clock. Pilots need vacations, days off, and have duty limits.

 

[jynxyjericho]

I am betting the new ual contract caps the 70's

Nah. Mainline will sell out the scope in exchange for a little more money to make up for the lost pension.

Regionals will grow and grow.

 

[KNOTS]

But Kit Darby swears there will be a hiring BOOM!

 

[Traderd]

1? Try 10.

Airlines typically staff 5 or 6 crews per airframe.
Divide your seniority list by airframes and see what you get.

Remember, the plane works around the clock. Pilots need vacations, days off, and have duty limits.

Really? We need to have Foxconn look into that....

 

[UnstableAviator]

Its still too early to make a prediction. Rest rule effects still aren't known, the ATP rule is still a possibility, and of course oil prices could ruin any benefits of ~100 seaters.

I do think the decade of the 2000's will be an oddball in the history of US airlines, with the explosive 50 seat growth and tons of new entry level jobs created.

 

[outerlimits]

Nah. Mainline will sell out the scope in exchange for a little more money to make up for the lost pension.

Regionals will grow and grow.

Truer words could not be spoken.


The regionals will only grow larger.

 

[skywdriver]

1? Try 10.

Airlines typically staff 5 or 6 crews per airframe.
Divide your seniority list by airframes and see what you get.

Remember, the plane works around the clock. Pilots need vacations, days off, and have duty limits.

I should have been more clear, point I was trying to make was 2 50s for 1 100 seat would require half as many pilots.

 

[skywdriver]

Nah. Mainline will sell out the scope in exchange for a little more money to make up for the lost pension.

Regionals will grow and grow.

Not gonna happen. There is no way the company gets scope relief on the new ual contract. There are too many people voting who see the terrible results of the outsourcing that has already taken place. For every guy out there who would sell scope for a little more dough to take with them into retirement, I would bet there are 3 who realize how important scope is and will not sell it. From what I have been told, 90 seat scope isn't even a discussion point in the contract. The company knows there is no way they will get it.

 

[fam62c]

By necessity, the airline industry fleet will look much different with oil at $100 than it did with oil at $30. What made sense in the 1990's doesn't make sense today. I remember when they couldn't make 50 seaters fast enough, now they can't make 737's and A-32X's fast enough. Even the 100 seat EMB is not that hot of a seller because it's not quite in the sweet spot of maximum efficiency and versatility for most domestic routes.

Where we go from here is almost totally dependent on fuel prices. Purchasing an airliner involves tying up a lot of money for a long period of time. The utility and cost effectiveness at various fuel price levels is much less of a gamble when you buy a 737 or a A32X than a smaller jet. As we've seen, these airplanes can work with $30 oil or $110 oil, 50-100 seat jets not so much. It's unlikely that any airline is going to bet on an airplane that only works with cheap fuel given what we know now.

I think the regionals will slowly revert to their roots; feeding hubs with cost efective turboprops.

 

[Flopgut]

From what I have been told, 90 seat scope isn't even a discussion point in the contract. The company knows there is no way they will get it.

True. Mgt can not advance the idea of a 90 seat outsource because they don't even have existing language that allows them to continue to outsource the 70 seat. Eventually, they will have to come to us.

 

[WSurf]

Yet another reason Bombardier and ATR are developing 90 Seat TurboProps.

 

[Freebrd]

But Kit Darby swears there will be a hiring BOOM!

Kit Darby don't surf!!!

 

[Freebrd]

A lot depends on AA bankruptcy and if their management gets to place larger jets at the regionals or not, if they do then the remaining majors will attempt to follow suit

 

[jynxyjericho]

Not gonna happen. There is no way the company gets scope relief on the new ual contract. There are too many people voting who see the terrible results of the outsourcing that has already taken place. For every guy out there who would sell scope for a little more dough to take with them into retirement, I would bet there are 3 who realize how important scope is and will not sell it. From what I have been told, 90 seat scope isn't even a discussion point in the contract. The company knows there is no way they will get it.

A very bold prediction, one that would be a complete reversal of 15 (?) years of current mainline practices. You have anything other than a "feeling" to back this up?

 

[outerlimits]

A very bold prediction, one that would be a complete reversal of 15 (?) years of current mainline practices. You have anything other than a "feeling" to back this up?

That is for sure.

I doubt anyone flying a wide-body at UAL even knows , or cares what scope is.

 

[Erlanger]

Money talks and BS....well you know!

 

[CFIT]

A lot depends on AA bankruptcy and if their management gets to place larger jets at the regionals or not, if they do then the remaining majors will attempt to follow suit

This is the most pivotal element of the regional out source for the foreseeable future and will determine, most likely, everyone's outcome in this industie. IF the GTF is the game changer it's proported to be, and IF the C-series is as efficient as claimed, it will required by every carrier.

Who flies it will be the "million dollar" question. AA management has already proposed to give it to mainline but they have yet to acknowledge anything regarding the pensions. IF AA management gives into the pensions, then they are going to want to outsource the C-series.

If the C-series goes to an out source then AA will have substantial advantage over the others. So much so that the other legacies will need to follow with similar contracts.

So, it appears that AA pilots hold almost all of us at hand. If they hold strong, all should go as the OP has suggested. If they succomb then you can imagine the rest.

What has the past history shown on scope?

How bad do the AA pilots want to recover their pensions?

 

[On Your Six]

Reading FREEBRD from CFIT's post (have him on ignore), I would absoluetly disagree. What many don't understand is it really does take a BK to TRY to change scope in big ways. First of all, the BK judge will not just "give" larger planes to AMR. He/she will look at the peers. It didn't happen in any of the other BKs. So, it cannot be forced, or it would have already happened. Next, the American pilots don't want to give it all away, they know what will happen, and the majority of pilots would vote it down, even if the senior guys tried to allow it. It wouldn't pass, it didn't at any of the other BK carriers. Next, even if somehow it DID happen at AMR, the other legacies aren't even close to BK. And, since they aren't close, it won't even come up. Look at the current CAL/UAL stance on nothing more than 50 seaters. Their MEC is sticking with that hardcore stance, even with all of the very senior pilots at both UAL and CAL. Same at DL. Scope would have been relaxed at the joint contract when DL/NWA came together, but it DID NOT. So, I wouldn't count on it (scope relaxation) if I were a regional guy.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[On Your Six]

This is the most pivotal element of the regional out source for the foreseeable future and will determine, most likely, everyone's outcome in this industie. IF the GTF is the game changer it's proported to be, and IF the C-series is as efficient as claimed, it will required by every carrier.

Who flies it will be the "million dollar" question. AA management has already proposed to give it to mainline but they have yet to acknowledge anything regarding the pensions. IF AA management gives into the pensions, then they are going to want to outsource the C-series.

If the C-series goes to an out source then AA will have substantial advantage over the others. So much so that the other legacies will need to follow with similar contracts.

So, it appears that AA pilots hold almost all of us at hand. If they hold strong, all should go as the OP has suggested. If they succomb then you can imagine the rest.

What has the past history shown on scope?

How bad do the AA pilots want to recover their pensions?

Who says the PBGC will allow the pension termination? They may be "frozen", but they may not lose it all together. The head of that agency doesn't sound like he wants to give in, and they have to prove at AMR that they will fail with the pensions intact. They went in with $4 billion in cash, and since the other airlines terminated their pensions, laws have been enacted to make it tougher to drop them.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[On Your Six]

That is for sure.

I doubt anyone flying a wide-body at UAL even knows , or cares what scope is.

I guess you don't know the CAL/UAL MEC stance on RJs. Sounds pretty "solid" to me. If it were not, they might have had a deal by now.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[skywdriver]

This is the most pivotal element of the regional out source for the foreseeable future and will determine, most likely, everyone's outcome in this industie. IF the GTF is the game changer it's proported to be, and IF the C-series is as efficient as claimed, it will required by every carrier.

Who flies it will be the "million dollar" question. AA management has already proposed to give it to mainline but they have yet to acknowledge anything regarding the pensions. IF AA management gives into the pensions, then they are going to want to outsource the C-series.

If the C-series goes to an out source then AA will have substantial advantage over the others. So much so that the other legacies will need to follow with similar contracts.

So, it appears that AA pilots hold almost all of us at hand. If they hold strong, all should go as the OP has suggested. If they succomb then you can imagine the rest.

What has the past history shown on scope?

How bad do the AA pilots want to recover their pensions?

Look at it from the other perspective. CAL/UAL get a joint contract first requiring that 90 seats be flown at mainline. Now, that takes leverage away from AMR management to give that piece of flying away. Rumor has it that Smisek realizes what is at stake here, and that he would like to get a contract done before the AMR guys finish up. I have trouble agreeing with anything Smisek says, but if he did indeed make that point, then I would certainly agree to that one.

 

[skywdriver]

A very bold prediction, one that would be a complete reversal of 15 (?) years of current mainline practices. You have anything other than a "feeling" to back this up?

Yes I do. There is absolutely no reason to give scope up. The results of the last scope relief have been felt by far too many. So, why would we do it again??? The guys in the bottom 25% see it simply as furlough protection. The 50% above them as seat or seniority protection. Ask a United guy who downgraded as the 737's were parked and replaced with 50 or 70 seat flying how he felt about the paycut. Ask a widebody captain how he felt about downgrading to narrowbody cpt. Ask a senior FO who got all his choice days off and a great schedule how he felt about working 18 days per month and having no control over his schedule. Ask all the guys who went from lineholder to reserve how they felt about the scope relief.

I would hardly call that a bold prediction, but rather a reasonable one.

 

[CA1900]

Every time two 50seaters are replaced by one 100seater that is a reduction of pilots in the industry.

True. But for every 100-seat mainline plane that's replaced by two outsourced 50-seaters, a dozen more pilots see their careers hit a brick wall.

 

[outerlimits]

I guess you don't know the CAL/UAL MEC stance on RJs. Sounds pretty "solid" to me. If it were not, they might have had a deal by now.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

I guess you do not know the UAL management stance. You know the ones that put them into bankruptcy, stole there pensions, cut there pay by over half(50%).

The MEC is bring a knife to a gun fight.


PS DAL is next on the list. The DAL union is a paper tiger.

 

[8sugarsugar]

Truer words could not be spoken.


The regionals will only grow larger.

Agreed, after the AMR mess is done and over with you will see the scope contracts be broken and Eagle will be flying A320s and 737s within the next decade.

RyanAir in europe is already paying 737-800 FO's $27,000 USD/year and making them pay for their own recurrents...

The Delta/United/American/US Air brands will just be brands with everything outsourced. Look at what Qantas is doing.

This big retirement/hiring boom will be replaced with outsourcing to low paid pilots with no pensions.

 

[Flopgut]

I guess you do not know the UAL management stance. You know the ones that put them into bankruptcy, stole there pensions, cut there pay by over half(50%).

That UAL mgt team is gone. It's CAL mgt now, and they made a grab for the UAL scope that resulted in a scope arbitration win for pilot labor. Yeah, the 70 seaters are still flying in the UAL brand, but only on the former UAL side. The former CAL flying is still covered by the former CAL scope, even after all the flying has been merged.

A member of the new UAL mgt team, who was trying to justify the 70 seater, spoke to it like this: Skywest wanted to fly the 70 seater for 50 seat wage for "growth", going forward that's all any of them are going to get. 50s go away and the 70s go to 50 seat wage, and then they can start bidding against each other. The 90 seaters go to UAL mainline and pay a decent wage.

However, I'm not even in favor of them skating on the 70.

 

[jynxyjericho]

Yes I do. There is absolutely no reason to give scope up. The results of the last scope relief have been felt by far too many. So, why would we do it again??? The guys in the bottom 25% see it simply as furlough protection. The 50% above them as seat or seniority protection. Ask a United guy who downgraded as the 737's were parked and replaced with 50 or 70 seat flying how he felt about the paycut. Ask a widebody captain how he felt about downgrading to narrowbody cpt. Ask a senior FO who got all his choice days off and a great schedule how he felt about working 18 days per month and having no control over his schedule. Ask all the guys who went from lineholder to reserve how they felt about the scope relief.

I would hardly call that a bold prediction, but rather a reasonable one.

Hehe, yeah I've actually talked to some of those guys you are speaking of. There are guys that care, but overwhelmingly they didn't. If it comes down to better pay vs scope for a bunch of guys that have 10 or less years left and they know there's no chance of a furlough thanks to retirements that's the ball game. There will be the hold outs as always, but majority rules, and my experience shows the majority to want nothing to do with the RJs. My sampling has been fairly unscientific (mostly commuters).