Future of the Regionals - I am Calling It Here

[skywdriver]

I am betting the new ual contract caps the 70's and requires anything bigger to be flown under the mainline list. The new technology of the small narrowbody jets is being thrown at the 90-110 seat size. As the 50 seat rj's reach their 50k hour cycle, they will be parked and replaced with the new technology airplanes and flown by mainline pilots. As oil continues to climb, the cost savings of outsourcing the flying to older rjs will be more than offset by the fuel savings of the newer small narrow bodies. As this flying is transferred back to mainline, positions will open up and be filled mainly by regional pilots, as the military pool of pilots continues to shrink. The new higher hourly requirements for new hire regionals combined with the decline of the new pilot pool will put pressure on the regionals to increase pay to attrack pilots into the industry as they struggle to staff due to all the vacancies that are created as regionals pilots move to fill mainline vacancies from retirements and mainline expansion with the new small narrowbodies. This will increase their operating costs, further decreasing the benefits to the mainline carriers of outsourcing the flying. The regionals will be the first to feel the effects of a shrinking pilot pool. I think this will be positive for all pilots currently at the regionals as movement begins again and fos are able to upgrade as captains leave for mainline. If we get the contract we should at ual, there shouldn't be a huge paycut for most of the pilots that come over from the regionals, and it should more than make up for itself over the course of a few years, making it a positive change for most everyone in the industry.

So, my prediction is that over the next 10-15 years, there will be half as many regional flights operating, and that the regional industry will be operating efficient shorter haul turbprops for a truly regional feed to mainline. The regional airlines may offer outsourcing opportunities to mainline carriers for maintenance and gate agent functions, and perhaps even flight attendant functions, but not pilots. I hope that doesn't happen for the sake of all the mainline positions, but that will be those employee groups' individual fights against the companies. I think there is a lot more to this than wishful thinking. Outsourcing has been a huge drag on wages and quality of life, and I think the market forces and dynamics of the current industry point towards a reversing of the regional boom that has taken place the past 10 years. In my opinion this change would benefit the majority of those already at the airlines and certainly future pilot generations.

 

[Flyby1206]

Every time two 50seaters are replaced by one 100seater that is a reduction of pilots in the industry. The long thin routes that can only support one 50seat round trip per day will be sacrificed completely. I think those who are waiting for the 'hiring boom' will be waiting for a looong time.

Yes I think the 100seat a/c will go to mainline, but I think the corresponding cuts at regional carriers will be even sharper, maintaining a glut of pilots at all levels.

 

[skywdriver]

Every time two 50seaters are replaced by one 100seater that is a reduction of pilots in the industry. The long thin routes that can only support one 50seat round trip per day will be sacrificed completely. I think those who are waiting for the 'hiring boom' will be waiting for a looong time.

Yes I think the 100seat a/c will go to mainline, but I think the corresponding cuts at regional carriers will be even sharper, maintaining a glut of pilots at all levels.

There are years in the future where retirments at the combined cal/ual will be nearing 800 per year. I realize that 2 50 seaters replaced with 1 100 seater requires 1 less pilot, but retirements should more than offset that reduction. As long as we can fight off cabotage, I think the demand for pilots at us carriers will ensure that all of those out there in the industry continue to have a job. Many will be forced to give up seniority at their current carrier, but hopefully in exchange for better pay, quality of life, and retirement at a mainline carrier. I came up through the regional ranks, and still have many close friends there. I by no means hope for the demise of that industry at the expense of all those still there. I strongly believe that the majority of regional pilots would benefit from this evolution in the industry.

 

[Snapshot]

I realize that 2 50 seaters replaced with 1 100 seater requires 1 less pilot.

1? Try 10.

Airlines typically staff 5 or 6 crews per airframe.
Divide your seniority list by airframes and see what you get.

Remember, the plane works around the clock. Pilots need vacations, days off, and have duty limits.

 

[jynxyjericho]

I am betting the new ual contract caps the 70's

Nah. Mainline will sell out the scope in exchange for a little more money to make up for the lost pension.

Regionals will grow and grow.

 

[KNOTS]

But Kit Darby swears there will be a hiring BOOM!

 

[Traderd]

1? Try 10.

Airlines typically staff 5 or 6 crews per airframe.
Divide your seniority list by airframes and see what you get.

Remember, the plane works around the clock. Pilots need vacations, days off, and have duty limits.

Really? We need to have Foxconn look into that....

 

[UnstableAviator]

Its still too early to make a prediction. Rest rule effects still aren't known, the ATP rule is still a possibility, and of course oil prices could ruin any benefits of ~100 seaters.

I do think the decade of the 2000's will be an oddball in the history of US airlines, with the explosive 50 seat growth and tons of new entry level jobs created.

 

[outerlimits]

Nah. Mainline will sell out the scope in exchange for a little more money to make up for the lost pension.

Regionals will grow and grow.

Truer words could not be spoken.


The regionals will only grow larger.

 

[skywdriver]

1? Try 10.

Airlines typically staff 5 or 6 crews per airframe.
Divide your seniority list by airframes and see what you get.

Remember, the plane works around the clock. Pilots need vacations, days off, and have duty limits.

I should have been more clear, point I was trying to make was 2 50s for 1 100 seat would require half as many pilots.

 

[skywdriver]

Nah. Mainline will sell out the scope in exchange for a little more money to make up for the lost pension.

Regionals will grow and grow.

Not gonna happen. There is no way the company gets scope relief on the new ual contract. There are too many people voting who see the terrible results of the outsourcing that has already taken place. For every guy out there who would sell scope for a little more dough to take with them into retirement, I would bet there are 3 who realize how important scope is and will not sell it. From what I have been told, 90 seat scope isn't even a discussion point in the contract. The company knows there is no way they will get it.

 

[fam62c]

By necessity, the airline industry fleet will look much different with oil at $100 than it did with oil at $30. What made sense in the 1990's doesn't make sense today. I remember when they couldn't make 50 seaters fast enough, now they can't make 737's and A-32X's fast enough. Even the 100 seat EMB is not that hot of a seller because it's not quite in the sweet spot of maximum efficiency and versatility for most domestic routes.

Where we go from here is almost totally dependent on fuel prices. Purchasing an airliner involves tying up a lot of money for a long period of time. The utility and cost effectiveness at various fuel price levels is much less of a gamble when you buy a 737 or a A32X than a smaller jet. As we've seen, these airplanes can work with $30 oil or $110 oil, 50-100 seat jets not so much. It's unlikely that any airline is going to bet on an airplane that only works with cheap fuel given what we know now.

I think the regionals will slowly revert to their roots; feeding hubs with cost efective turboprops.

 

[Flopgut]

From what I have been told, 90 seat scope isn't even a discussion point in the contract. The company knows there is no way they will get it.

True. Mgt can not advance the idea of a 90 seat outsource because they don't even have existing language that allows them to continue to outsource the 70 seat. Eventually, they will have to come to us.

 

[WSurf]

Yet another reason Bombardier and ATR are developing 90 Seat TurboProps.

 

[Freebrd]

But Kit Darby swears there will be a hiring BOOM!

Kit Darby don't surf!!!

 

[Freebrd]

A lot depends on AA bankruptcy and if their management gets to place larger jets at the regionals or not, if they do then the remaining majors will attempt to follow suit

 

[jynxyjericho]

Not gonna happen. There is no way the company gets scope relief on the new ual contract. There are too many people voting who see the terrible results of the outsourcing that has already taken place. For every guy out there who would sell scope for a little more dough to take with them into retirement, I would bet there are 3 who realize how important scope is and will not sell it. From what I have been told, 90 seat scope isn't even a discussion point in the contract. The company knows there is no way they will get it.

A very bold prediction, one that would be a complete reversal of 15 (?) years of current mainline practices. You have anything other than a "feeling" to back this up?

 

[outerlimits]

A very bold prediction, one that would be a complete reversal of 15 (?) years of current mainline practices. You have anything other than a "feeling" to back this up?

That is for sure.

I doubt anyone flying a wide-body at UAL even knows , or cares what scope is.

 

[Erlanger]

Money talks and BS....well you know!

 

[CFIT]

A lot depends on AA bankruptcy and if their management gets to place larger jets at the regionals or not, if they do then the remaining majors will attempt to follow suit

This is the most pivotal element of the regional out source for the foreseeable future and will determine, most likely, everyone's outcome in this industie. IF the GTF is the game changer it's proported to be, and IF the C-series is as efficient as claimed, it will required by every carrier.

Who flies it will be the "million dollar" question. AA management has already proposed to give it to mainline but they have yet to acknowledge anything regarding the pensions. IF AA management gives into the pensions, then they are going to want to outsource the C-series.

If the C-series goes to an out source then AA will have substantial advantage over the others. So much so that the other legacies will need to follow with similar contracts.

So, it appears that AA pilots hold almost all of us at hand. If they hold strong, all should go as the OP has suggested. If they succomb then you can imagine the rest.

What has the past history shown on scope?

How bad do the AA pilots want to recover their pensions?