skywdriver
Well-known member
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2005
- Posts
- 230
I am betting the new ual contract caps the 70's and requires anything bigger to be flown under the mainline list. The new technology of the small narrowbody jets is being thrown at the 90-110 seat size. As the 50 seat rj's reach their 50k hour cycle, they will be parked and replaced with the new technology airplanes and flown by mainline pilots. As oil continues to climb, the cost savings of outsourcing the flying to older rjs will be more than offset by the fuel savings of the newer small narrow bodies. As this flying is transferred back to mainline, positions will open up and be filled mainly by regional pilots, as the military pool of pilots continues to shrink. The new higher hourly requirements for new hire regionals combined with the decline of the new pilot pool will put pressure on the regionals to increase pay to attrack pilots into the industry as they struggle to staff due to all the vacancies that are created as regionals pilots move to fill mainline vacancies from retirements and mainline expansion with the new small narrowbodies. This will increase their operating costs, further decreasing the benefits to the mainline carriers of outsourcing the flying. The regionals will be the first to feel the effects of a shrinking pilot pool. I think this will be positive for all pilots currently at the regionals as movement begins again and fos are able to upgrade as captains leave for mainline. If we get the contract we should at ual, there shouldn't be a huge paycut for most of the pilots that come over from the regionals, and it should more than make up for itself over the course of a few years, making it a positive change for most everyone in the industry.
So, my prediction is that over the next 10-15 years, there will be half as many regional flights operating, and that the regional industry will be operating efficient shorter haul turbprops for a truly regional feed to mainline. The regional airlines may offer outsourcing opportunities to mainline carriers for maintenance and gate agent functions, and perhaps even flight attendant functions, but not pilots. I hope that doesn't happen for the sake of all the mainline positions, but that will be those employee groups' individual fights against the companies. I think there is a lot more to this than wishful thinking. Outsourcing has been a huge drag on wages and quality of life, and I think the market forces and dynamics of the current industry point towards a reversing of the regional boom that has taken place the past 10 years. In my opinion this change would benefit the majority of those already at the airlines and certainly future pilot generations.
So, my prediction is that over the next 10-15 years, there will be half as many regional flights operating, and that the regional industry will be operating efficient shorter haul turbprops for a truly regional feed to mainline. The regional airlines may offer outsourcing opportunities to mainline carriers for maintenance and gate agent functions, and perhaps even flight attendant functions, but not pilots. I hope that doesn't happen for the sake of all the mainline positions, but that will be those employee groups' individual fights against the companies. I think there is a lot more to this than wishful thinking. Outsourcing has been a huge drag on wages and quality of life, and I think the market forces and dynamics of the current industry point towards a reversing of the regional boom that has taken place the past 10 years. In my opinion this change would benefit the majority of those already at the airlines and certainly future pilot generations.
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