Forbes: Oil prices to fall...

[jetflyer]

Sorry to burst the EXUBERANCE BUBBLE

Forbes is LYING?? Here is a posting on Australian Senator Kerry Nettle's Website. Kerry Nettle says that Forbes is lying and that he is telling his investors in a SUBSCRIBER ONLY newsletter that global oil production will PEAK very soon and the price of oil will skyrocket. Here is the link:

http://www.kerrynettle.org.au/600_media_sub.php?deptItemID=433

.Steve Forbes contradicts oil price claim in latest investor newsletter

1st Sep 05

Greens Senator Kerry Nettle today accused Steve Forbes, host of the CEO conference at the Opera House, of playing deceptive games with the Australian public over oil price claims.

Steve Forbes told the Prime Minister and media on Tuesday that oil prices will come back down to around $35 a barrel within a year, and that high prices are a speculation 'bubble'. Overnight his investor newsletter has advised the opposite.

The subscriber only Forbes Professional Timing Service states:

"THE MOST IMPORTANT ADVICE I HAVE GIVEN IN 20 YEARS"

"expect to see crude move to $65.00 this summer and to $76.00 by early next year."

"..the so-called terror premium in crude prices - which will remain until we see at least three years of peace in the fertile crescent".

And,

"We are at the point where the rubber hits the road, and the only rationing mechanism for whomever gets the available supply will be higher prices."

"What is Mr Forbes up to? It appears he is telling the Australian public and decision makers not to taking the spike in oil prices seriously, whilst telling his investors that the spike is a great profit making opportunity," Senator Nettle said.

"Mr Forbes public comments appear to be about discouraging steps to address the coming peak oil crisis, a crisis he admits as real to his investors.

"Steve Forbes is treating Australians with contempt. He should apologise for his deliberate deception.

"Australians should be worried if the Prime Minister is taking advice from the likes of Steve Forbes on an issue as vital as the looming energy crisis. This embarrassing incident underlines the untrustworthiness of Mr Forbes' advice.

"The Prime Minister should be listening to those who advocate investment in renewable energy and energy conservation measures which are in the long term interests of this country."

Contact – JonEdwards 0428 213 146

EXCERPT FROM FORBES NEWSLETTERS PROFESSIONAL TIMING SERVICE OVERLEAF…

1 September 2005 12:28:37 AM

FORBES NEWSLETTERS PROFESSIONAL TIMING SERVICE

THE MOST IMPORTANT ADVICE I HAVE GIVEN IN 20 YEARS
There are four major opportunities concerning crude oil, gold, stocks, and bonds that will make and break millionaires during the next 24 months.

First: Too late to buy oil? Not on your life!

A couple of years ago when oil was trading at $16.00 to $20.00 a barrel, I pointed out the ground floor investment opportunity developing in oil. We openly recommended Enerplus Resources (ERF-NYSE) in our publications. It was trading at $17.00 or less then and was paying a dividend of about 1.25% - MONTHLY. That amounted to 15% a year. After a brief correction this spring, crude oil is once again trading solidly over $55.00 a barrel. Enerplus is trading over $35.00, a dynamic double from our original recommendation. It is too late to chase Enerplus, and there are better buys out there that are yet to be discovered by the Street. I will tell you about one presently, but first ...

Opportunity #1 – An exceptional second chance to buy energy stocks.

The first of four major opportunities you will encounter this summer - which is also the biggest money making opportunity I have seen since crude oil was $20.00 - is to take advantage of the recent correction in the energy sector and buy some energy stocks. You may be skeptical about this - as investors were when we told them to "mortgage the house and buy stocks" in the spring of 1982. Nevertheless, here it is.


Oil and natural gas are on their way to significantly higher levels.I expect to see crude move to $65.00 this summer and to $76.00 by early next year. However, you can still buy select oil and gas producers that pay 11% to 15% dividends - and they pay monthly. It doesn't get better than that.


There are many reasons to invest now in oil and gas. Unrest in the Middle East and the so-called terror premium in crude prices - which will remain until we see at least three years of peace in the fertile crescent - are two reasons. I think that will be a long time coming. Now, Iran (a major world supplier) is making the news as a safe haven for terrorists as well as a nuclear threat.


Venezuela (the fourth largest supplier of U.S. crude oil) is becoming our avowed enemy. There is renewed strife in Nigeria. The lion’s share of the world’s crude is being produced from wells far beyond their prime, and some sources estimate that for every 2 to 4 barrels a day consumed, only 1 new barrel is being brought on line.


There is a major shortfall between supply and demand, and this shortfall is growing on a monthly basis. World demand increased 2.5 million barrels a day over the last year due to increased demand in the U.S. and Asia. India and China are industrializing at a feverish pace, and their energy appetite is increasing exponentially. China is aggressively expanding their infrastructure and their military, and they are developing an enormous strategic oil reserve that will be much bigger than ours. Mushrooming global consumption will easily be 86 MBD or more by the end of this year.

On the other hand, global production is very close to a peak, and there is no longer any near term "excess" production capacity left. Knowledgeable sources estimate that world production will never – that’s NEVER - exceed 90 million barrels a day (MBD). With one exception - which we discuss in our updated special report Oil - Slam Dunk Investing For Income And Capital Gains – Updated- alternative energy of any import is years in the future. We are at the point where the rubber hits the road, and the only rationing mechanism for whomever gets the available supply will be higher prices.

 

[ChrisNNJ27]

Forbes is LYING?? Here is a posting on Australian Senator Kerry Nettle's Website. Kerry Nettle says that Forbes is lying and that he is telling his investors in a SUBSCRIBER ONLY newsletter that global oil production will PEAK very soon and the price of oil will skyrocket. Here is the link:

http://www.kerrynettle.org.au/600_media_sub.php?deptItemID=433

Jet Enough already....

I think everyone knows where you stand with regard to Peak Oil Paranoia...

 

[BoilerUP]

If somebody can factually verify that Forbes sent out a members-only newsletter contracting a public statement (because I refuse to believe the word of a single Austrailian Senator as posted on a lunatic fringe webboard where I believe many people are profiting hugely from the increase in oil prices), he'll get hung in the media for it. Forbes has a pretty good reputation, and I doubt he'd be so crass and arrogant as to think he could get away with such doubletalk.

Until then, I'll believe Mr. Forbes; he knows more about the stock market than I do

 

[Mumra]

To the posters that believe that the market price of a commodity reflects all known information about that commodity and that past price performance is irrelevant: bull.

Efficient markets theory was all the rage when I was in school around 15 years ago but I believe the behaviorlists are now gaining ground. Behavioralists believe that irrational decision making by individuals affects market prices (hence the stock bubble of 2000). Anyone using technical analysis would be a behavioralist.

http://www.techcentralstation.com/102004D.html

 

[Traderd]

To the posters that believe that the market price of a commodity reflects all known information about that commodity and that past price performance is irrelevant: bull.

Efficient markets theory was all the rage when I was in school around 15 years ago but I believe the behaviorlists are now gaining ground. Behavioralists believe that irrational decision making by individuals affects market prices (hence the stock bubble of 2000). Anyone using technical analysis would be a behavioralist.

http://www.techcentralstation.com/102004D.html

That's me!

I could not care less about why a given equity or commodity's price is on the move nor do I care in which direction. It is without relevance to me if the price is speculative or based on someone's idea of sound fundamentals.

I care only that it moves.

 

[jetflyer]

I'm so confused. Forbes was just on CNBC saying oil was going to $35. How can he lie with such a straight, uh i mean ugly J/K, face?

Strange.

The other analyst disagreed with Forbes in the long term, and said oil would go higher because of strengthening global demand and supply not being able to keep up.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Great News: Peak Oil not until 2012 according to Netherlands study

Other studies I had seen by ASPO and ODAC were pinning 2007-2008 as the Peak Oil year. It turns out we have more time to prepare, which is excellent news!

This new study by Rembrandt H.E.M. Koppelaar from Foundation Peak Oil Netherlands is the best study I've seen and is very good news! I was thinking for a long time Peak Oil would come in just 2-3 years, but I think we have more time now.

Koppelaar from the Netherlands considers Country by Country production through enhanced recovery techniques, planned new projects which take 5-10 years to begin from discovery, depletion rates of current fields and projected depletion rates, etc. in this amazing study.

HERE IS A LINK TO THE STUDY:
http://www.peakoil.nl/images/oil_production_outlook_2005-2040.pdf

Koppelaar is grounded in facts and not scare mongering. I just hope he is right. Even if Peak isn't until 2010, it's much better than 2007!

Peak Oil awareness is happening which is a wonderful thing as well. Republican House member Roscoe Bartlett just spoke about Peak Oil again to congress on Wednesday. Here is a link to the transcript posted at peakoil.com:
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic12521.html

More and more people are learning about the problem every day. More and more companies are doing something to make it hopefully not a big deal!
--Shell has discovered a new way to produce the oil shale from the Rockies with a more economical process that doesn't require the millions of barrels of water a day as the old methods required. Unfortunately they are 10-15 years away from making a million barrels a day, so there will still be a hard transition period.
--Many companies are looking to gassify coal for automobiles. Unfortunately this is still a long time away before it too will produce a milllion barrels a day(10 atleast) but it is good that one day it will be producing oil.
--New ways of making fuel from plants is being developed that is better than ethanol from corn.
--New vehicles are being developed that will have much better gas mileage
--There are new electric vehicles being developed that will be wonderful
--New nuclear plants are being discussed in the U.S. and should begin breaking ground soon.
--Etc. etc. etc.

Even with peak oil not coming in 2012, we'll still see hard times economically. The price of oil until 2012 will still be going up. Koppelaar's study says demand growth will be forced to not go above 2% until peak. Currently we've been growing at 3%. How do you limit people using oil? By rising the price. Also he says any supply disruptions will cause wild price swings since excess capacity has reached almost ZERO now.

I'm a lot more hopeful now that I've read this study. I hope alternatives to oil, new technologies and new more fuel efficient cars hit the market quick. I hope nuclear power plants are built. I hope ANWR is opened up very soon. I hope the U.S. finally develops real alternatives to oil.

I also hope alternatives are brought to market quick enough before too many wars are fought for this valuable resource. My biggest fear is future wars being fought are already planned and will be the number one solution to peak oil before looking for others. Let's hope not.

See ya and I hope you learn something from reading the very well written country by country study,

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

China says oil peak in next 5 years​

This article is from China. They say global oil production will peak in the next 5 years, but the Netherlands study says 2012. I hope 2012 is the year and not in the next 5 years. Either way, global production is 84 million barrels a day now and they say oil will peak at about 94-100mbd, which is where the Netherlands study says it will peak. If you haven't read the Netherlands study you should.



Here is the chinese article: http://www.interfax.cn/showfeature.asp?aid=5412&slug=OIL

​

Oil will peak at USD 90 per barrel in March 2006 -
CNOOC Dep. Chief Economist

By Erik Dahl​

BEIJING. September 6. INTERFAX-CHINA - Oil will peak at USD 90 per barrel by March of next year, CNOOC Dep. Chief Economist Zhang Weiping said at conference discussing China's energy needs in Beijing on Monday. Zhang also expected global oil production to peak at 94-100 mb/day during the next five years. ​

"High oil prices will have adverse affects on China's economy," said Zhang. ​

China's expenditure on oil imports could reach or even exceed USD 60 bln on oil imports this year, up from USD 40 bln in 2004, putting "high pressure" on China, said Xia Yishan, Senior Research Fellow at the China Institute of International Studies.

China's annual crude demand is expected to rise by 9.7% this year, suggesting that the country will need to import 135 mln tons this year, accounting for 42.45% of total demand and exceeding last year's figure of 40.5%, said a recent report by the Development Research Center under the State Council.

The country's net oil imports stood at 120 mln tons in 2004.

China is facing oil shortages on the eastern coast, especially in Guangdong province. Crude processing for export purposes has already been suspended until December 31, as part of the efforts to guarantee domestic supply.

Growth of energy demand in China has outstripped GDP growth since 2003 and will face sustained energy shortages if this continues, said Zhou Dadi, Director General of the Energy Research Institute at the conference.

Energy has been put under pressure from both rapidly increasing demand and dismally low efficiency.

For each unit of GDP, China uses three times more energy than the United States and five times more than Germany and Japan. This is due to a lack of economies of scale, an over reliance on high-energy industry and outdated production technology, according to Dr. Bernhard Hartmann, a Vice President at AT Kearney.

Comparing industrial processes, energy consumption per unit of output is between 20% to 100% more than similar practices in other countries, according to David Dollar, the World Bank's Country Director for China.

Industrial production is much more energy intensive than service industries and 52% of China's GDP comes from industry, compared to an average of 36% for other middle-income countries, according to the World Bank.

Residential heating requires 50-100% more energy than OECD countries due energy efficiency standards, according to the World Bank.

Over the next 15 years, an estimated 300 -350 mln people are going to move to cities. Urban residents consume 3.5 times more energy than rural residents, said Zhao Jie, from the China Academy of Urban Planning and Design.

"High oil prices are prompting us to develop new energy conservation measures," said Xia. Saving one ton of oil is only 1/5 the cost of producing one ton of oil.

China has already committed to increase renewable energy consumption to 10% of the nation's total energy consumption by 2020.

China has already set the price of wind power at 40-60% above the price of other energy sources to encourage development, however, renewable energy is still in the initial stage and the technology is still "weak" said Zhou.

Wind energy in Germany is still backed up by coal. For every 1 megawatt of wind capacity, German power companies will install 0.6 megawatts of coal generation as a backup source, said Hartmann.

"Renewable energy can't rely on preferential treatment and higher prices for development. If the technology is not strong, large scale deployment is impossible," said Zhou.

Jet