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Forbes: Oil prices to fall...

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As far as guessing the next move of futures contracts or stocks, everyone that enters a position is guessing the move. Some trade with longer time frames and greater stop limits than others, but all are guessing. Fundementals are a great way to determine your guess, but I can attest to the fact that technical indicators work very well also.

and as you know....

the Market is Always Right

Fundamentals are better known as Funny-Mentals

The ultimate fundamental is price itself, everything that is known and unknown is boiled down to one thing, the price

There is no Bull Side or Bear side, just the correct side, trade with the trend

;)
 
PCL_128 said:
Very true. However, for every person that profited from the drop in the NASDAQ, there were many other people that lost their shirt. Very few people get involved in shorting. However, many average Americans get involved in these ridiculous bubbles, and they get hit hard when the bubble pops, as it always does. It's much better to invest in something that is supported by the fundamentals than to try to guess the next move of the various futures contracts.

Shorting is not as complicated as it appears, it is simply a matter of trading stocks that are going down, instead of up. Instead of buying a stock, hoping it climbs, you short it, hoping it tanks. Not many investors do this, and very few mutual funds are legally allowed to short, with the exception of specific bear market/short funds such as BEARX.

The trader who combines fundamentals with technicals is probably better off than using either one independently. Basically buying good quality stocks at the correct time.

Another thing many traders/investors are not cognizant of is the overall market condition. If the market is in a new uptrend (March 2003-Dec 2003), his chances for success are much greater if he buys at that time then at the tail end of a bull market (end of 1999, early 2000), hoping that his stock will go up ten times.

Buy (or short) at the wrong time in the overall market cycle can seriously impeded your overall performance.

if I had 100K laying around I would have bought Unleaded Gas futures before Katrina hit...see chart

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/javachart/UG/95?returl=x2

while yes, high gas prices are hurting the economy, commodities traders who trade with the trend are making MILLIONS off crude oil and gas prices. Its not "bad" or "anti-American", this guys manage funds or work for investment companies, and its a chance to obtain profits. When the prices go down, they will go short, and make more money.
 
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satpak77 said:
The ultimate fundamental is price itself, everything that is known and unknown is boiled down to one thing, the price

As an economics major, I'm happy that for once on a message board on the internet, I've found somebody that knows what they're talking about when it comes to gas prices.
 
satpak77 said:
Shorting is not as complicated as it appears, it is simply a matter of trading stocks that are going down, instead of up. Instead of buying a stock, hoping it climbs, you short it, hoping it tanks. Not many investors do this, and very few mutual funds are legally allowed to short, with the exception of specific bear market/short funds such as BEARX.

The trader who combines fundamentals with technicals is probably better off than using either one independently. Basically buying good quality stocks at the correct time.

Another thing many traders/investors are not cognizant of is the overall market condition. If the market is in a new uptrend (March 2003-Dec 2003), his chances for success are much greater if he buys at that time then at the tail end of a bull market (end of 1999, early 2000), hoping that his stock will go up ten times.

Buy (or short) at the wrong time in the overall market cycle can seriously impeded your overall performance.

if I had 100K laying around I would have bought Unleaded Gas futures before Katrina hit...see chart

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/javachart/UG/95?returl=x2

while yes, high gas prices are hurting the economy, commodities traders who trade with the trend are making MILLIONS off crude oil and gas prices. Its not "bad" or "anti-American", this guys manage funds or work for investment companies, and its a chance to obtain profits. When the prices go down, they will go short, and make more money.

Let me ask you a question.

If you were a terroist planning something like the World Trade Center, you could make money by shorting airline stocks right?
 
empenage said:
Let me ask you a question.

If you were a terroist planning something like the World Trade Center, you could make money by shorting airline stocks right?

i suppose so but most people who "jump in" and try to be "ahead of" the next market move only loose money. Trend followers, who jump in once the trend already gets started, are usually the most profitable traders.

later
 
Sorry to burst the EXUBERANCE BUBBLE :(

Forbes is LYING?? Here is a posting on Australian Senator Kerry Nettle's Website. Kerry Nettle says that Forbes is lying and that he is telling his investors in a SUBSCRIBER ONLY newsletter that global oil production will PEAK very soon and the price of oil will skyrocket. Here is the link:

http://www.kerrynettle.org.au/600_media_sub.php?deptItemID=433

.Steve Forbes contradicts oil price claim in latest investor newsletter

1st Sep 05

Greens Senator Kerry Nettle today accused Steve Forbes, host of the CEO conference at the Opera House, of playing deceptive games with the Australian public over oil price claims.

Steve Forbes told the Prime Minister and media on Tuesday that oil prices will come back down to around $35 a barrel within a year, and that high prices are a speculation 'bubble'. Overnight his investor newsletter has advised the opposite.

The subscriber only Forbes Professional Timing Service states:

"THE MOST IMPORTANT ADVICE I HAVE GIVEN IN 20 YEARS"

"expect to see crude move to $65.00 this summer and to $76.00 by early next year."

"..the so-called terror premium in crude prices - which will remain until we see at least three years of peace in the fertile crescent".

And,

"We are at the point where the rubber hits the road, and the only rationing mechanism for whomever gets the available supply will be higher prices."

"What is Mr Forbes up to? It appears he is telling the Australian public and decision makers not to taking the spike in oil prices seriously, whilst telling his investors that the spike is a great profit making opportunity," Senator Nettle said.

"Mr Forbes public comments appear to be about discouraging steps to address the coming peak oil crisis, a crisis he admits as real to his investors.

"Steve Forbes is treating Australians with contempt. He should apologise for his deliberate deception.

"Australians should be worried if the Prime Minister is taking advice from the likes of Steve Forbes on an issue as vital as the looming energy crisis. This embarrassing incident underlines the untrustworthiness of Mr Forbes' advice.

"The Prime Minister should be listening to those who advocate investment in renewable energy and energy conservation measures which are in the long term interests of this country."

Contact – JonEdwards 0428 213 146

EXCERPT FROM FORBES NEWSLETTERS PROFESSIONAL TIMING SERVICE OVERLEAF…

1 September 2005 12:28:37 AM

FORBES NEWSLETTERS PROFESSIONAL TIMING SERVICE

THE MOST IMPORTANT ADVICE I HAVE GIVEN IN 20 YEARS
There are four major opportunities concerning crude oil, gold, stocks, and bonds that will make and break millionaires during the next 24 months.

First: Too late to buy oil? Not on your life!

A couple of years ago when oil was trading at $16.00 to $20.00 a barrel, I pointed out the ground floor investment opportunity developing in oil. We openly recommended Enerplus Resources (ERF-NYSE) in our publications. It was trading at $17.00 or less then and was paying a dividend of about 1.25% - MONTHLY. That amounted to 15% a year. After a brief correction this spring, crude oil is once again trading solidly over $55.00 a barrel. Enerplus is trading over $35.00, a dynamic double from our original recommendation. It is too late to chase Enerplus, and there are better buys out there that are yet to be discovered by the Street. I will tell you about one presently, but first ...

Opportunity #1 – An exceptional second chance to buy energy stocks.

The first of four major opportunities you will encounter this summer - which is also the biggest money making opportunity I have seen since crude oil was $20.00 - is to take advantage of the recent correction in the energy sector and buy some energy stocks. You may be skeptical about this - as investors were when we told them to "mortgage the house and buy stocks" in the spring of 1982. Nevertheless, here it is.


Oil and natural gas are on their way to significantly higher levels.I expect to see crude move to $65.00 this summer and to $76.00 by early next year. However, you can still buy select oil and gas producers that pay 11% to 15% dividends - and they pay monthly. It doesn't get better than that.


There are many reasons to invest now in oil and gas. Unrest in the Middle East and the so-called terror premium in crude prices - which will remain until we see at least three years of peace in the fertile crescent - are two reasons. I think that will be a long time coming. Now, Iran (a major world supplier) is making the news as a safe haven for terrorists as well as a nuclear threat.


Venezuela (the fourth largest supplier of U.S. crude oil) is becoming our avowed enemy. There is renewed strife in Nigeria. The lion’s share of the world’s crude is being produced from wells far beyond their prime, and some sources estimate that for every 2 to 4 barrels a day consumed, only 1 new barrel is being brought on line.


There is a major shortfall between supply and demand, and this shortfall is growing on a monthly basis. World demand increased 2.5 million barrels a day over the last year due to increased demand in the U.S. and Asia. India and China are industrializing at a feverish pace, and their energy appetite is increasing exponentially. China is aggressively expanding their infrastructure and their military, and they are developing an enormous strategic oil reserve that will be much bigger than ours. Mushrooming global consumption will easily be 86 MBD or more by the end of this year.

On the other hand, global production is very close to a peak, and there is no longer any near term "excess" production capacity left. Knowledgeable sources estimate that world production will never – that’s NEVER - exceed 90 million barrels a day (MBD). With one exception - which we discuss in our updated special report Oil - Slam Dunk Investing For Income And Capital Gains – Updated- alternative energy of any import is years in the future. We are at the point where the rubber hits the road, and the only rationing mechanism for whomever gets the available supply will be higher prices.
 
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jetflyer said:
Forbes is LYING?? Here is a posting on Australian Senator Kerry Nettle's Website. Kerry Nettle says that Forbes is lying and that he is telling his investors in a SUBSCRIBER ONLY newsletter that global oil production will PEAK very soon and the price of oil will skyrocket. Here is the link:

http://www.kerrynettle.org.au/600_media_sub.php?deptItemID=433

Jet Enough already....

I think everyone knows where you stand with regard to Peak Oil Paranoia...
 
If somebody can factually verify that Forbes sent out a members-only newsletter contracting a public statement (because I refuse to believe the word of a single Austrailian Senator as posted on a lunatic fringe webboard where I believe many people are profiting hugely from the increase in oil prices), he'll get hung in the media for it. Forbes has a pretty good reputation, and I doubt he'd be so crass and arrogant as to think he could get away with such doubletalk.

Until then, I'll believe Mr. Forbes; he knows more about the stock market than I do
 
To the posters that believe that the market price of a commodity reflects all known information about that commodity and that past price performance is irrelevant: bull.

Efficient markets theory was all the rage when I was in school around 15 years ago but I believe the behaviorlists are now gaining ground. Behavioralists believe that irrational decision making by individuals affects market prices (hence the stock bubble of 2000). Anyone using technical analysis would be a behavioralist.

http://www.techcentralstation.com/102004D.html
 
Mumra said:
To the posters that believe that the market price of a commodity reflects all known information about that commodity and that past price performance is irrelevant: bull.

Efficient markets theory was all the rage when I was in school around 15 years ago but I believe the behaviorlists are now gaining ground. Behavioralists believe that irrational decision making by individuals affects market prices (hence the stock bubble of 2000). Anyone using technical analysis would be a behavioralist.

http://www.techcentralstation.com/102004D.html

That's me!

I could not care less about why a given equity or commodity's price is on the move nor do I care in which direction. It is without relevance to me if the price is speculative or based on someone's idea of sound fundamentals.

I care only that it moves.
 

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