993_Pilot
MIGS
- Joined
- Jul 12, 2008
- Posts
- 569
...I've been thinking about this one a little bit. If I'm management and I'm coming up on 185 days prior to the three year amendable date of the contract and I have to make a decision about weather to exercise my option to extend the contract, I would essentially have two choices: 1) Exercise the option and pay millions for a 3% raise for the pilots. 2) Go back to the table and spend $0. Of course, choice #2 also comes with a potential labor dispute, but I'm not sure that it's as much of a fore-gone conclusion, as some of you guys seem to think, that this contract goes for five years....
The reason management wants a five year contract so badly, is so they can tell their prospective customers that they won't have any labor disputes for the next 5 years in the hopes of selling 5 year contracts. I'm fine with that if the pay is there, but it isn't, so getting it cheap virtually guarantees that the TA would be optioned for years 4 & 5. If management chose to go back to the table, they would definitely face a disgruntled workforce and all that implies. They might escape an increase in labor cost for a while, but unless we're in the midst of the Great Depression II, the pilots aren't going to settle for such crappy pay the next time around, and there is likely to be retro-pay clause in the next TA too. Ask any NJ pilot what their lump retro pay was.
... I think it's very possible that we are back at the table in 2.5 years. Remember for management, it all about the money.
It is all about the money, and the 3% penalty to extend doesn't even keep up with the average annual cost of living increase. The only way that management won't exercise their option to extend this contract if if the economy tanks into the next great depression, or booms back to the levels of 2006/7, and demand is so high that they cant attract a sufficient number of pilots. I seriously doubt either will happen in the next 5 years. What economists are predicting, is a drastic increase in the rate of inflation. If that happens, the cost of living will obviously be up more than the 3% we'll see and we'll all have less spending power, even with that meager increase.
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