Experts predict Comair may be sold

[General Lee]

Lear70,

The 50 seat RJ demise I am talking about is the ongoing troubles faced by RJ operators on routes directly competing with LCCs. There are some routes that warrent 50 seat RJs--primarily ones that do not compete with LCCs---like MSP to GSO. NW and Pinnacle can charge whatever they want on that route--and with the lack of competition from LCCs nonstop to that city----that RJ may do well. But, with the addition of all of those RJs at your hubs, comes more delays (holding in VFR, long taxi times, etc)---and there will be a point at which the losses due to excess fuel use and missed connections will cause the mainline operator to think twice about how much help the 50 seater is adding to the program. As soon as more LCCs invade MSP and DTW (only Spirit and a little Southwest action there now)--the fares will drop and the mainline people will have to use larger airplanes with more seats to compete with the lower fares. It is happening to us in ATL with Airtran, and it will happen more and more in the future. I never said that there will not be a need for 50 seaters----I think those aircraft will also be upgraded with 70 seaters because those extra 20 seats might make a difference. But, Boyd was right with his "50 seat economics" article.....(and I don't always agree with that guy)


Medflyer,

I agree with you on that--and there are some good city pairings that 50 seaters fly to with no LCC competition. You are right there. But look at CVG. 50 seat RJs go to every big East Coast City from there----and somebody who has a choice to go on an RJ through CVG to connect onto a larger plane or can go on a LCC or other Legacy mainline sized plane will probably choose the latter---and especially if he/she is a business traveller.

Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[FDJ2]

General, what was that about the 50-seat RJ demise? Where is that premise coming from? The 50-seat RJ has a break-even operational CASM at 40% load factor, that is, only 20 seats have to be occupied to break even, which includes all costs - fuel, lease payments, crew, mx, ground ops, etc.

First off, thanks for making the clarification as to how many CRJs Pinnacle is flying. Obviously far more CRJs than AVROs as Surplus incorrectly stated.

Second, are the RJs flying NWA code flying with less than a 40% load factor, because according to NWA's latest SEC filing their regionals have a -17% operating margin, whereas system wide the operating margin is only about -4%.

 

[FDJ2]

General...I was being sarcastic and just showing the fallacy in his logic.

Keep in mind, a lot of the RJ's fly to small markets with no LCC's as well.

Fallacy in my logic. NEVER

Medflyer, the LCC don't fly long haul international flights, and wide bodied aircraft do have a lower CASM and higher load factor, international yields are increasing and domestic yields either are remaining flat or slightly decreasing, so your sarcams missed the mark, since we are talking about different markets.

However, you do make a good point, that RJs have a niche market in some small communities that would otherwise not receive any air service if it were not for the RJ. Obviously Airtran thinks otherwise in the small communities that they serve, but time will tell if they got it right by ditching the CRJ for their mainline aircraft. Time will also tell if DAL got it right by vastly increasing their use of RJs. JMO, but I think that this is all part of GG's big "strategic review". I doubt management would be so bold as to publicly admit an error, but their actions later this year and into next will be telling.

I also believe that Sam Buttrick of UBS got it right when he told GG that DAL could retain the edconomic benefits of regional feed, without owning the equity in it. Considering the fact that DAL is predominantly owned by the institutional investor, far more so than other airlines or S&P 500 corporations, I think GG will ultimately take that advice. Again, that doesn't mean DAL won't continue to use RJs, it just means that DAL has no reason to own the companies that provide that lift.

 

[MedFlyer]

Fallacy in my logic. NEVER

Medflyer, the LCC don't fly long haul international flights, and wide bodied aircraft do have a lower CASM and higher load factor, international yields are increasing and domestic yields either are remaining flat or slightly decreasing, so your sarcams missed the mark, since we are talking about different markets.

My sarcasm was aimed at the ridiculousness of comparing DL's fleet structure to that of Airtran,WN,JBLU.

Keep in mind that nearly half of DL's widebody fleet isn't flying international either. According to the General's theory, DL needs more big planes to fight against the LCC's, because the small RJ's have too high a unit cost. He might be right. But so far his theory hasn't exactly worked. DL has for years and years flown widebodies on routes like ATL-MCO, ATL-FLL, ATL-LGA, ATL-TPA, ATL-BOS, ATL-JAX, etc. However, even with all those widebodies with their costs spread across hundreds of seats, Airtran has been able to easily enter these markets and eat away at DL's marketshare. What went wrong?

In fact, DL's ATL hub has the most substantial mainline presence of any hub...yet it was the hub where Airtran thrived. Why is that? Even in a smaller market like ATL-PNS where DL flies mostly MD88's...it didn't stop Airtran from entering the market and taking marketshare. According to the General, all those mainline planes should have been quite a force to stop Airtran...yet it didn't work.

Ironically, the one hub that the LCC's have avoided is CVG where DL has a very high percentage of RJ traffic. Why are the LCC's so afraid of CVG and all its high cost RJ's?

I wholeheartedly agree that the boom of RJ's at DL is winding down and that there is a need to move back to bigger planes. There are plenty of RJ routes that are packed to the gills and need to be upgraded.

However, as my ATL example shows, DL's problems are far bigger than simply using too many RJ's. Spinning off Comair/ASA won't solve those problems.

 

[General Lee]

Medflyer,

I never said we needed widebodies to compete against the LCCs---that is stupid. We need more mainline sized planes to bring in more connection passengers to the hubs. The RJs are self limiting---they can only bring in a certain number of passengers each---and with the lower fares---we need more passengers to make sure we fill up our widebodies going to FLA in ATL and CVG....And, I continually point out that we fly too many RJs directly against LCCs and we will lose that fight---not only with less revenue but passenger comfort concerns. I honestly think the 757 is the perfect airplane to compete aginst LCCs between larger cities. The 199 seats on Song can create a profit even with lower fares---spreading out the costs among the 199 seats.....But don't get me wrong--we still need RJs---but not directly against the LCCs.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Lear70]

Second, are the RJs flying NWA code flying with less than a 40% load factor, because according to NWA's latest SEC filing their regionals have a -17% operating margin, whereas system wide the operating margin is only about -4%.

That NWA filing with the SEC is a little strange, as our operating margin is 14%, that is, we are one of the most profitable "regionals" in the country, and are NOT losing money.

I belive our average load factor is near the 80% range; it's the small cities like I mentioned before that we're often fairly empty, especially at the oddball departure times of 0500 to 0600 in the morning - no one is going to get up at 0300 unless they absolutely have no choice.

Who knows what Northwest is basing that assumption on, especially since they don't own either carrier and shouldn't be submitting SEC filings that have anything to do with us at all, except for listing how their portion of the stock is performing which, by the way, is up, so that wouldn't be in the negative numbers either. The only thing I can figure is that maybe they're comparing their yield on their "regional" flying with the Fee Per Departure they pay us and Mesaba, but then they'd be combining the numbers of both operations which would further muddy the waters...

Weird stuff!

 

[jarhead]

I very frequently get up at 0300 in the morning to non-rev out of MSP on an 0530 flight. Only time I ever missed that flight was due to a mechanical.....not because of seat availability

 

[Heavy Set]

Why are Skywest CRJs being used between Salt Lake and San Diego? Why are RJs used between Salt Lake and DFW? What about CRJs between LAX and PHX - can those be profitable vs. Southwest 737-300s?

I agree that it makes no sense to use CRJs on LCC routes between major cities. Flying CRJs between Salt Lake and Kalispell or Salt Lake and Pasco makes a lot more sense given the lack of LCC competition and the smaller city pairs. Why can't people understand this? How is the logic NOT understood?

How about increase the capacity and lower the fares (after cutting costs) on the major city pairs? DAL pilots have apparently accepted the fact that their wages will likely be cut by at least 15-20% (must be negotiated after the DAL strategy is revealed). I say put more 757s on the line and replace any RJs on major city pairs...

 

[trip]

I belive the one SKYW CRJ between SLC-DFW is used as a bridge for crew and equipment into the DFW HUB as well as an early AM to DFW with a late PM returning. These dont really connect with any bank of flights. The SLC-SAN flight? I guess DL wanted the 733 to fly somwhere else because it is gone. What happened to the 767? I noticed another CRJ flight in may for a total of 6 flights daily SLC-SAN. 2CRJ and the rest DL. AS for the LAX-PHX I have no idea!! U schedules our A/C, we just try and leave on time.

A SKYW Pilot.

 

[jarhead]

Below is an excerpt from The Saturday edition of the Cincinnati Enquirer newspaper. It relates to converstions after the stockholders meeting in ATL, about 'spin-offs'


"After the meeting, Grinstein shot down the possibility of spinning off regional subsidiaries Comair (based in Erlanger) or Atlantic Southeast Airlines to raise more cash.

"Comair and ASA are valuable assets," Grinstein said. "The price you would sell them for would be what kind of contract you would give for service ... and you
would be tying yourself into a long-term
obligation."

"It would seem to me to be counterproductive, so we would rather
keep them in the role they are in - providing feed for the network."

 

[General Lee]

He must have great confidence that we WILL NOT go into Chap 11 because if we were going to do it next week for example, Comair and ASA would be sold on Monday........The stock holders would expect it----you can't make their stocks worthless without selling off assets first...

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[jarhead]

General,

Grinstein has also stated “officially” during the actual shareholders annual meeting, that he intends to avoid Chapter 11. He has stated that in order to avoid ch 11, the DAL pilots must take a 30% cut in pay, and that it must be done all at once; not piece meal. Pasted below is some more of the same Cincinnati Enquirer article that goes to the heart of that issue. Don’t you think that the same stockholders you mention that would be so adamant at selling off assets before chapter 11, would more adamantly want the 30% concessions? Inquiring minds want to know.

I have never heard of a company in trouble bailing themselves out, by selling assets. They usually shed liabilities.

Read on........


Delta CEO resolute on pilot wage cuts


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Grinstein: 30% cut needed; pilots say 9%

By James Pilcher
The Cincinnati Enquirer



Gerald Grinstein, Delta CEO, speaks Friday during the company's annual meeting in Atlanta.
The Associated Press
ATLANTA - Delta Air Lines' annual shareholders meeting Friday was calm, with the company's ongoing campaign to pressure its pilots to take a major pay cut barely getting a mention. The storm came right after the gathering, with both sides further hardening their stances in the labor dispute.

It started with recently installed chief executive officer Gerald Grinstein saying that management's proposal was the best that the company could offer.

"You've got to get (the savings) done at one time," said Grinstein, answering a series of questions from reporters following the meeting. "The number that is on the table is truly a minimum number. I just don't see that there's any latitude for movement in it."

When asked if that meant that Delta would not budge from its request for pay cuts of 30 percent, a freeze on future raises and other work rule changes, Grinstein said: "I just don't see how. I wish I did, but I don't."

 

[jarhead]

Years ago, I saw a wonderful cartoon. I believe it was in The New Yorker. Here’s the scene:

Two guys are tied to stakes in front of a wall, facing a firing squad. At the left side of the panel, you can see a dozen guys with shouldered rifles, aiming at the two men tied to the stakes. Also, you see the commandant of the firing squad, with his sword raised, giving the command. The balloon and pointer show the commandant of the firing squad as having already stated the words of his command: READY……..AIM……..

At the right side of the cartoon panel, it shows one of the condemned making a sly comment to the other guy being executed. He has this sly grin on his face, with his half smoked cigarette dangling out of his mouth. The balloon dialog shows this guy uttering a comment to his fellow condemned prisoner. His comment in the balloon dialog was: “Now here’s my plan……”

I take that message to be that sometimes, time just runs out on anything. You need to make a plan in a timely enough fashion, if it is to be of any value at all, or to give one a half assed chance of implementing a viable plan.

Delta pilots, in some respects, remind me of the guys tied to that stake in front of the commandant’s firing squad. It might just be one minute before midnight of the last day……..

 

[General Lee]

Jarhead,

Don't worry, we have all HEARD exactly what he said. Our MEC Chair also gave his opinion in a speech. I don't really understand what you meant by stock holders wanting us to have 30% pay cuts?? They don't really know squat about what goes on internally---but they will be angry if Grinstein files Chap 11 and still had opportunities to stay out by selling key assets. Their lawyers would make sure those questions were asked. Doesn't that make sense? It is called a fiduciary responsibility---to stay out of Chap 11 if at all possible--and selling assets first makes sense.....

Before you start telling us to take 30% pay cuts----you need to look in the mirror also and look at your peer level wages at Mesa. I am willing to give up some pay---and most of us are---but not get taken in the process, especially WITHOUT a sound plan. Our MEC Chair is waiting to hear the "plan" coming out in AUG---and if it addresses growth and possible profit sharing etc (NW guys are doing the same)--then he may consider it. I really doubt we would give anything if the "plan" included more RJs---nope. Would you guys give 30% if you knew that your money was going to be used to buy 717s and we at mainline would fly them? I didn't think so. USAir took money and never had a plan. And, we still have plenty of time to address these issues---our cash position this year is stable due to the high load factors and the profitable Spring and Summer months. We all can't wait to see what the big plan is---and remember---it better be good for it to pass a TA vote.....(maybe some J4J for the furloughs, and new 100 seaters eventually---hey, USAir ordered $4.5 billion worth of planes in bankruptcy...it can be done)

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[sleepy]

Jarhead,

Don't worry, we have all HEARD exactly what he said. Our MEC Chair also gave his opinion in a speech. I don't really understand what you meant by stock holders wanting us to have 30% pay cuts?? They don't really know squat about what goes on internally---but they will be angry if Grinstein files Chap 11 and still had opportunities to stay out by selling key assets. Their lawyers would make sure those questions were asked. Doesn't that make sense? It is called a fiduciary responsibility---to stay out of Chap 11 if at all possible--and selling assets first makes sense.....

Before you start telling us to take 30% pay cuts----you need to look in the mirror also and look at your peer level wages at Mesa. I am willing to give up some pay---and most of us are---but not get taken in the process, especially WITHOUT a sound plan. Our MEC Chair is waiting to hear the "plan" coming out in AUG---and if it addresses growth and possible profit sharing etc (NW guys are doing the same)--then he may consider it. I really doubt we would give anything if the "plan" included more RJs---nope. Would you guys give 30% if you knew that your money was going to be used to buy 717s and we at mainline would fly them? I didn't think so. USAir took money and never had a plan. And, we still have plenty of time to address these issues---our cash position this year is stable due to the high load factors and the profitable Spring and Summer months. We all can't wait to see what the big plan is---and remember---it better be good for it to pass a TA vote......

Bye Bye--General Lee

General,

Isn't it more of a fiduciary duty for GG to get at least a 30% pay cut from you (maybe more, the longer you put it off), as it is to sell ASA and/or Comair? I mean really, when UAL, USAir and United (the other so-called majors) have all given at least that much or more in pay cuts and work rule concessions, shouldn't our shareholders expect him to at LEAST get the same from you before he goes and sells valuable assets (that belong to the shareholders, not DALPA, BTW) like ASA and Comair?

Bye, Bye!

 

[General Lee]

Sleepy,

Yes, they probably expect him to ASK---and he is asking---but they also expect him to eventually get something---and since we are the only union----he needs to negotiate. Sam Butrick, a respected analyst, thinks it is crazy he hasn't taken the first deal and just moved on. Also, would you invest in something without knowing the plan? You would? I thought so. I think you will be sold before he gets 30% without a viable plan----and you can take that to the bank! Ray Neidl and other analysts have pointed out that we really don't need to own you to actually use you----re-read that article please. He (Ray) would be the first on the witness stand...

Also, I think the share holders want to compare your wages to Mesa's---your peer group. Hey, if everyone else is making half and wanting the feed---shouldn't you also take some pay cuts? No? I didn't think so........Good night!


Bye Bye--General Lee

"Analyst Raymond Neidl of Blaylock & Partners thinks Delta will ultimately sell one or both of the regional carriers to raise money. He noted rivals Northwest and Continental airlines have done the same.

"I think they're going to do that at the end of the day," he said. "There's no reason for them to hold on to them."

 

[jarhead]

General,

First of all, I don’t worry; I observe. I don’t have a dog in this fight. I am 63 years of age, and well past mandatory retirement age, if I ever had been a commercial airline pilot. My interest in this discussion is because my son is a Comair pilot. As such, I follow what’s going on in aviation.

That disclaimer stated, Yes, I am certain all of you are well versed in what went on at the shareholders meeting.

And what are the consequences of stockholders being “angry”? Angry stockholders elect new directors and/or a new CEO. Do you think GG is sweating that? He’s 71; all he’s trying to do is save the company, and all of your jobs in the process.

I (Jarhead) am not telling you to take 30% cuts. The head of your company is asking for that. It seems to me as though a lot in your MEC are rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, when y’all need to be bailing water and sending out an SOS. Maybe you all would rather be lying on the cold floor of the Atlantic, with a chalk board message telling the body recovery crew, that “It’s no fair”.

 

[General Lee]

Jarhead,

Since you are older and probably "wiser" (Is you first name BUD?)---you should know that you don't give up anything until you know the plan. You need to know what you are investing in. Look at USAir---employees contracts (plural----not at Delta though--only one union, which equals flexibility) were plundered, and NO PLAN was made. There is NO WAY we will give without knowing where we are going. Also, Grinstein stated that it would be "EASY" to stay away from Chap 11 with a pilot pay cut---30% or whatever....Well,
there are different ways to get that achieved, including help from EVERY portion of the workforce. (not just the pilots---singling out the ONLY union.....) They could get money RIGHT NOW from the other groups---but don't want to because they fear other unions coming on to the property.... Does this make sense to you now? And, what we really need to do is refinance the upcoming debt--which could be done with a pilot pay cut first, which would raise our bond ratings and make it easier to borrow cheaper money. Sounds great, huh? And, we would have had an OPERATING PROFIT of $116 million this last quarter had they not VOLUNTARILY pre-funded the pension plans---even though pension reform stated we didn't have to for two more years. And, the first quarter is historically the WORST quarter (worst is first). So, what I am saying is that this ship is NOT the Titanic yet, and we will get the financing eventually---but we want to see a plan that will work and will give us eventual growth and maybe some eventual profit sharing to make this investment a good one.
That just makes sense. If you cannot see that being prudent is the way to go---then you are drinking the management koolaid...

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[jarhead]

(Tic….tic….tic) as the clock approaches midnight. (Refer to previous post about the cartoon from The New Yorker.)

No, JUST because I am older, does not make me “wise”. What I do know is that Delta’s competitors, both legacy carriers and LCC’s, have far lower pilot and other labor costs than DAL. I know you will not argue that point. Delta pilots are the highest paid in the industry, and even with a 9% concession, I believe you still have that distinction. Now, unless you have a way to slash fuel costs, aircraft lease terms, gate fees, fleet modernizations, etc. I feel you collectively are walking past the cemetery whistling in the dark, a merry tune, to mask the reality. Delta’s lunch is being eaten by its competition, due to better customer service, lower operating costs, and route structures that are profitable.

I agree General; it’s not JUST pilot cost that is the problem. But pilot costs put DAL at a major disadvantage. I thought it was reprehensible what the secret management “retention” bonuses paid under Mullins leadership forged. I’d be angry too. But that’s history, and you can only fix the future. You can’t change the past. You can learn from it though.

 

[sleepy]

Well, I agree, we all need to know what the "plan" is General. I doubt there is a real plan, but I could be wrong.