Emirates aims for 120 A380s... See Reuters Article

[johnsonrod]

Hi johnsonrod,

Are you a pilot for EK? I think you must be with the vigor you are using to defend them and their ludicrous expansion plans. Dubai in the same breath with Paris, London, and Frankfurt? You must be delirious from all of those tough out-and-backs to Houston. Dubai is shopping disneyland, filled with Russian prostitutes, built in the middle of the sand. Indoor ski resort? Have you been there? Tallest building in the world? These are you're arguments as to why Dubai is a destination, not a through stop? There are some business travelers who end their stays in Dubai, but I would suggest that far more people use that city as a transit point than a destination. I really can't fathom putting Dubai in the same category as Paris, London, or Frankfurt. What a pity.

box

I am not an EK pilot. Is Dubai a destination or not? Who the f@ck cares. The point is that people use semantics to defend their arguments. Some people might consider Dubai a destination (plenty of Indians do) while others won't. In the end, the Canadians can't compete with the EK product - PERIOD. I agree that EK could potentially dump their product - but why not allow 3-4 777s daily into Canada (Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal and Calgary)? I understand the A380 capacity issue - but not the 777 issue.

I guess since all of you guys fly big airplanes worldwide you all have opinions - FANTASTIC. We can agree to disagree. This thread has become boring. Over and out....

 

[uba757]

Careful Hoser, if it weren't for some of those former British Colonies you would have been speaking fluent GERMAN now and under Supreme Adolf's rule. This thread is regarding EKs ability to fill 120 A-380s.


WYOMINGPILOT, are u kidding me!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Are you not proud of being an American, I am. So I defend us Americans and you have a problem with that but the idiot that comes on this thread on "EKs ability to fill 120 A-380s" like your post and starts with the "You Americans are this and you Americans are that" he gets a pass from you! Grow a pair!!!!!!!!!!!

uba757

 

[WYOMINGPILOT]

are u kidding me!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Are you not proud of being an American, I am. So I defend us Americans and you have a problem with that but the idiot that comes on this thread on "EKs ability to fill 120 A-380s" like your post and starts with the "You Americans are this and you Americans are that" he gets a pass from you! Grow a pair!!!!!!!!!!!

uba757

Sorry I misunderstood your post. I thought you were agreeing and calling the US pilots arrogant and just a former Bristish Colony. My bad. I don't envy any pilots in the ME and putting up with their anal training departments. Getting back to the thread, it will be interesting to see if the Indian carriers try and tap into Emirates moving so many Indian nationals.

 

[Regional4life]

WyomingPilot,
Maybe I'm missing a point in your post, but from what I'm getting from you, your concern is that EK is trying to fill 120 A380's into the U.S. and Canada.

That's simply not going to happen. Why did EK put the 380 on Toronto and not leave the 777? Frequency of service. Give it 7 day service, I doubt the 380 stays on Toronto. Add frequency into and out of Canada, 380 won't stay on those routes. Frequency disperses loads out of one city to several, 777 steps in. JFK and Toronto are about the limit to the 380. Much further than that, you really start limiting cargo, which is huge for EK. Weigh that against premium passengers (12 FC and 76 Business on 380 vs 8 FC and 42 Business 777) and it's a crap shoot that no real pilot at EK has the figures for because cargo and premium obviously vary season to season, day to day, and their is no real way anyone will know what those numbers of profit/break even points are here, to closely guarded. The 380 is on JFK due to premium, but it cannot carry the cargo to same destination as 777, that and the fuel loads are completely different. You are talking 99 tons of fuel, versus 130 (or so) but a crap load less cargo on JFK when comparing 380 to 777. Selling point is the expensive freaking FC and Business capacity 380 brings versus 777. You won't see a "crushing" of 380 flights to the states, simply because it won't be economical, particularly if the price of Jet A rises.

North America is a prime market for the states. EK has a very high load factor this year, which can be confirmed via IATA. The 380 right now has HUGE potential within Europe, Asia, and India for EK. Our loads there are HUGE. 9 hour flight, fully loaded on 380 dominates a 9 hour 777 fully loaded, particularly with premium fares. EK will use the 380 not primarily on N American flights, but look for them in the subcontinent, Europe, Asia.

Plus, look at the bigger picture. The 120, again, is not for North America. It's a game. First off, the order is to force Boeing into 777 changes that EK is demanding (i.e., whipsaw). Secondly, it's to gain landing rights into Germany, France, Italy, etc. Think about it, Germany says no to EK to operating into Berlin, fine. EK says cancel 30 A380's and put german's out of work. It's freaking politics man. It's not about filling loads to N America with the 380 at all. Bigger picture. There's more traffic into and out of Middle East, Subcontinent, Asia (and Africa, although obviously many many upgrades in Africa needs to be made for 380 to operate) than N America. We have 5 destinations into N America. N America is a big target, but it's not our prime target. Look at the potential expansion plans and destinations in Europe, Asia, etc. South America will also see some expansion as well. Again, it's all politics for the 380, but don't just focus on EK with N America, that's not where the 380 is designed for, and the 380 can definitely support the loads out of the middle east to said prior destinations. But, again, looking at big picture, that will require an airport change as well. We cannot operate at the said A/C movements out of DXB, not with FlyDubai expanding, etc. They will have to move to Al Maktoum or where ever. Whether or not they actually take 120 is irrelevant, it's the political BS that goes into each country with 380's that they are manipulating to gain access to Europe, etc. Again, don't expect the 380 to "bombard" N America. That will still stay, primarily, a boeing route. 380 will also replace numerous 330/340 A/C. Adding seats, yet simply replacing A/C. 380 obviously more economicaly than 340. 380 orders could also be deferred to 350 orders, which EK will take a lot of. It's about wrapping up money into Airbus and EU governments to secure the cheapest structure out there, plain and simple. The 380 operating into and out of N America to EK are really just a small part of the bigger picture.

My two cents.

 

[Bjammin]

The arrogance and American cetric attitudes of some N. American pilots is crazy. I fly full 777-300ER's from Hong Kong to Taiwan, Manila, and Japan all the time with high yeilds that don't have one American on them. There is a HUGE market of flyers out there in growing economies that many US carriers will never be able to tap into.

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This is the reason we can't have good discussions on here some times, this is the typical response that you get when you leave abroad and work for companies like EK, or any other. For any American thinking about working outside the U.S.A, this is the kind of mentality that you get from some of the citizens of former British Colonies. Bitter and Bitchy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

uba757[/QUOTE]


I'm an American living in San Diego and fly for a foreign carrier out of LAX and have so for many years.

In my experience on being on FI for years and having MANY friends and family flying both domestically and internationaly I find that many people have NO idea about the size of the foreign traveler market. Yes America may have a HUGE amount of flyers, but as many say, paying $69 to go from places like DAL to ELP to see grandma is different than paying $6900 to go First or Business from KIX to DXB. How many $69 fares does take to equal that? a 737 worth of people! Does America have a large business market and international travel as well, sure, but not 50% of the worlds market, way WAY less. The economies of China and India are going to outpace the world economy by more than twice over the next 5 years -Bloomburg Weekly, while we sit here stagnant. EK has the ability to tap that and can make huge profits with big airplanes and not even set foot in N. America.

 

[Sgt. Hartman]

This ain't rocket science its just the facts. The N. American market still constitutes 50% of all air traffic

Just curious, what's your source for this info?

 

[WYOMINGPILOT]

I got these figures from IATA

RANK/AIRLINE/PASSENGERS CARRIED IN THOUSANDS 2009 FIGURES

1/DELTA/161,000
2/SOUTHWEST/101,000
3/AMERICAN/85,000
4/UNITED 81,000
5/LUFTHANSA/76,000
6/AIR FRANCE-KLM/71,000
7/CHINA SOUTHERN GROUP/66,000
8/RYAN AIR/65,000
9/CONTINENTAL/62,000
10/US AIRWAYS 51,000

EMIRATES carried 27,000

I disagree Emirates will not attempt to tap the largest aviation market in the world (N. America), it is far too large and lucrative. Emirates may attempt to use politics and squeeze the Europeans for cheaper Airbus aircraft and Fifth Freedom rights to Europe. The Europeans will have to decide which they want to keep the most, the high paying airline jobs or the high paying aircraft manufacturing jobs. Lufthansa and Air France-KLM have significant political power and will not roll over easily and allow Emirates to try and aggresively grow their business in Europe at the expense of the European carriers.

A very interesting aspect in all this discussion is what competition will FLY DUBAI have upon Emirates business in 3-5 years as their agressive growth plans unfold. The 737 NG is arguably one of the MOST efficient aircraft. The prime Eastern European, Middle East, N. African and Indian markets within 5 hours of Dubai are all prime expansion targets for FLY DUBAI.

 

[Sgt. Hartman]

I found these.

http://www.iata.org/ps/publications/Pages/wats-passenger-carried.aspx

The US carriers may have about 60-65% of the traffic in the top ten but once you exhaust the stastics from the big 5 or 6 in the States you really run out of decent options to help add to those numbers (ie. there are other airlines you could add in but they wouldn't affect the end result very significantly). There are just too many airlines of the world (Asia, ME, Europe) that come in the 11-50 range on that list that would dwarf the approx. 405,000 that you get above from adding all the US carriers' domestic and international operatins in the top 10. The 405,000 is still a significant number, but it's definitely not 50%

 

[WYOMINGPILOT]

I found these.

http://www.iata.org/ps/publications/Pages/wats-passenger-carried.aspx

The US carriers may have about 60-65% of the traffic in the top ten but once you exhaust the stastics from the big 5 or 6 in the States you really run out of decent options to help add to those numbers (ie. there are other airlines you could add in but they wouldn't affect the end result very significantly). There are just too many airlines of the world (Asia, ME, Europe) that come in the 11-50 range on that list that would dwarf the approx. 405,000 that you get above from adding all the US carriers' domestic and international operatins in the top 10. The 405,000 is still a significant number, but it's definitely not 50%

This study demonstrated the US and Europe control 62% of the world market and will fall to 52% by 2025. The US is a mature market for sure but so vast and generating so much revenue that Emirates may try various strategies like Code share and worst case Fifth Freedom rights. Hopefully the US will not sign an Open Skies agreement with UAE.
http://www.zinnov.com/presentation/Global_Aviation-Markets-An_Ananlysis.pdf

 

[Gillegan]

This study demonstrated the US and Europe control 62% of the world market and will fall to 52% by 2025. The US is a mature market for sure but so vast and generating so much revenue that Emirates may try various strategies like Code share and worst case Fifth Freedom rights. Hopefully the US will not sign an Open Skies agreement with UAE.
http://www.zinnov.com/presentation/Global_Aviation-Markets-An_Ananlysis.pdf

I'm pretty sure they already have. A few years ago, Emirates was flying DXB-HAM-JFK and return using 5th freedom rights. The US basic stance is they will sign open skies with anyone who reciprocates. Any airline can and many do fly 5th freedom flights in and out of Dubai.

While I too question whether it is viable for Emirates to fly 120, 90 or even 50 A380's profitably, I've watched them for a long time and believe that there is not a better marketing/planning department in the industry. They recognized the advantages of Dubai's geographic placement years ago before anyone else even noticed them and have exploited it ever since. They saw the traffic flows from Asia and Africa to N. America years before any US carriers even considered flights to those places. When they start a flight to a city, they begin their marketing effort 6 months to a year before beginning the actual flights so that the route is profitable well before the industry average. I suspect that the rhetoric about 90 or 120 380's is just that and that the order is more of a hedge against other countries restricting their expansion through more flights (of 777's and 350's). If the established flag carriers of Europe, Canada (and the US in the future?) are successful in their efforts to protect their turf, Emirates will take the 380's and expand that way. If not, I would expect the number of 380's to reduce somewhat and to see a lot of the expansion using the 777's and 350's.

Regarding whether Emirates enjoys unfair advantages, as much as we might like to think so, the playing field is not level. Tax and bankruptcy laws and regulation vary from country to country. Many in Europe argue that US bankruptcy laws allow the continuation of failed businesses that do nothing other than drag down the rest of the industry. Emirates enjoys a very cozy relationship with their government and regulator and the result is that they are allowed to work employees to levels of productivity that would be outlawed in many countries. They do not get free or cheap fuel and are not subsidized. The threatened western airlines would be better off complaining about the real advantages rather than the imagined ones or are they hopeful that sometime in the future, that they may also be able to abuse their employees in the manner that Emirates has?