Emirates aims for 120 A380s... See Reuters Article

[Varmint]

Both India and China have booming economies with rising numbers of middle class people (many of whom have never flown before). I think I read that several billion people live within 5 hours of Dubai (maybe not the exact number - but close).

People from China will never fly the wrong way back to Dubai then travel to the US. I don't dispute the numbers of people but these 2 billion people will never be able to fly and fill 120 A-380s. The entire North Anerican market constitutes 50% of all Air traffic. The location of Dubai does not fit for air traffic to/from the N. American markets and most European markets. Take a look at Dubai on the map and then think about East coast traffic to Europe or west coast traffic to Asia. Dubai doesn't fit this and 50% of all air traffic is N. American air travelers. I don't think most N. American countries will sign open sky agreements with Dubai or approve fifth freedom rights or beyond.

Think about the other airlines that offer the same quality of service offering a more convenient route? There are not that many choices with one connection. Other airlines may require two connections or more and with international flights, clearing customs, etc in every country that can add 3-4 hours per connection time. That amounts to way time total enroute than emirates one stop going the long way around the globe. I still want to know how you think you know so much about Emirates' model and how full there 380's are or are you just speculating based on your minds one sided thought process? Not a bad thing, most people think that way, just curious.

 

[typhoonpilot]

People from China will never fly the wrong way back to Dubai then travel to the US. I don't dispute the numbers of people but these 2 billion people will never be able to fly and fill 120 A-380s. The entire North Anerican market constitutes 50% of all Air traffic. The location of Dubai does not fit for air traffic to/from the N. American markets and most European markets. Take a look at Dubai on the map and then think about East coast traffic to Europe or west coast traffic to Asia. Dubai doesn't fit this and 50% of all air traffic is N. American air travelers. I don't think most N. American countries will sign open sky agreements with Dubai or approve fifth freedom rights or beyond.

The market for the A380s has always been a little bit suspect. That said, Emirates is filling them up on many routes. As long as oil stays at reasonable price levels you will see the most profit ever reported by an airline for one year made by Emirates this year. It will likely be in excess of $2 Billion. They don't need any money from outside sources ( such as the government ) to continue their business plan. It's a stand alone business.

Draw a 10 hour flying radius around Dubai. There are close to 4 Billion people in that radius. It compromises all of Africa, Europe, Asia, and the Indian Sub-Continent. The North American market is not for traffic to and from Europe, it's for traffic to and from the Middle East and parts of Asia ( primarily the Indian Sub-Continent ). There are also new traffic corridors in the world that North American airlines will never be able to tap into. Those are ones from Asia to Africa and Asia to Europe. Notice that Dubai sits right in the middle of both market pairs.

The old axioms are being withered away. Things like 50% of all world air travel is in the USA east of the Mississippi. That's crap from 30 years ago. It's not true today. The new axiom is 50% of all CRJs and ERJs worldwide are flying in the USA pissing off all the air travelers.

That all said, Emirates is not the be all, end all career destination just because they are profitable and have a lot of big airplanes. The company operates very efficient and cost conscious across all departments. The pilots work very hard compared to many other pilots worldwide. Expect a minimum of 800-900 hours of flying per year and additional non-paid duties to eat up your days off. Lifestyle has gone downhill rapidly over the last year and half. The quick upgrades of the past will be hard to replicate for people joining today. But, yeah you would have a shot at the big shiny A380 for sure.



Typhoonpilot

 

[CX880]

How many pilots are there per A380 at EK?

 

[Bjammin]

The market for the A380s has always been a little bit suspect. That said, Emirates is filling them up on many routes. As long as oil stays at reasonable price levels you will see the most profit ever reported by an airline for one year made by Emirates this year. It will likely be in excess of $2 Billion. They don't need any money from outside sources ( such as the government ) to continue their business plan. It's a stand alone business.

Draw a 10 hour flying radius around Dubai. There are close to 4 Billion people in that radius. It compromises all of Africa, Europe, Asia, and the Indian Sub-Continent. The North American market is not for traffic to and from Europe, it's for traffic to and from the Middle East and parts of Asia ( primarily the Indian Sub-Continent ). There are also new traffic corridors in the world that North American airlines will never be able to tap into. Those are ones from Asia to Africa and Asia to Europe. Notice that Dubai sits right in the middle of both market pairs.

The old axioms are being withered away. Things like 50% of all world air travel is in the USA east of the Mississippi. That's crap from 30 years ago. It's not true today. The new axiom is 50% of all CRJs and ERJs worldwide are flying in the USA pissing off all the air travelers.

That all said, Emirates is not the be all, end all career destination just because they are profitable and have a lot of big airplanes. The company operates very efficient and cost conscious across all departments. The pilots work very hard compared to many other pilots worldwide. Expect a minimum of 800-900 hours of flying per year and additional non-paid duties to eat up your days off. Lifestyle has gone downhill rapidly over the last year and half. The quick upgrades of the past will be hard to replicate for people joining today. But, yeah you would have a shot at the big shiny A380 for sure.



Typhoonpilot

Great post!!

The arrogance and American cetric attitudes of some N. American pilots is crazy. I fly full 777-300ER's from Hong Kong to Taiwan, Manila, and Japan all the time with high yeilds that don't have one American on them. There is a HUGE market of flyers out there in growing economies that many US carriers will never be able to tap into.

 

[Cpt. Underpants]

I'm no expert on this, but Canadas' denial of unfettered access to Canadian cities by EK is a blow to their N American plans. The Canadian government justifies the denial on the grounds that the Emirate is not a destination but a transit point, and EK and others are simply flooding the market with cheap seats, intending to put AC and others out of business.

Although AC is one of my least favourite carriers, Harper (Canadian Prime Minister) has a point.

When the playing field is level (human rights, salaries, fuel and insurance costs), let the games begin.

FWIW, the Emirate has responded but terminating the lease the Canadian Armed Forces (yes, there is one) has on a base in the UAE, giving them 30 days to vacate. So much for fair play. Right.

 

[johnsonrod]

I'm no expert on this, but Canadas' denial of unfettered access to Canadian cities by EK is a blow to their N American plans. The Canadian government justifies the denial on the grounds that the Emirate is not a destination but a transit point, and EK and others are simply flooding the market with cheap seats, intending to put AC and others out of business.

Although AC is one of my least favourite carriers, Harper (Canadian Prime Minister) has a point.

When the playing field is level (human rights, salaries, fuel and insurance costs), let the games begin.

FWIW, the Emirate has responded but terminating the lease the Canadian Armed Forces (yes, there is one) has on a base in the UAE, giving them 30 days to vacate. So much for fair play. Right.

We all understand the capacity dump argument. Why not allow a 1-2 daily 777s vs. one A380 three days a week? But Air Canada also can't compete with EK's service standards. So, Canadian citizens will have to suffer with higher airfares and crappier service when they want to get to the Middle East. Gee, sounds quite protectionist to me.

Fortunately AF, BA and LH also serve Canada (I think AF now operates an A380 to Montreal daily from CDG - what's up with that???? Can't people also transit through CDG on their way to Pakistan and India?) so Canadians aren't completely held hostage by AC and its comparative crap service.

 

[Cpt. Underpants]

AF, BA and LH also serve Canada

True - but LHR, LGW, CDG & FRA all destinations in themselves, not transit stops - the essence of the argument in the AC/EK dispute.

Couldn't agree more.

I'll reiterate - I'm no fan of AC, but I do believe in fair play.

 

[WYOMINGPILOT]

Great post!!

The arrogance and American cetric attitudes of some N. American pilots is crazy. I fly full 777-300ER's from Hong Kong to Taiwan, Manila, and Japan all the time with high yeilds that don't have one American on them. There is a HUGE market of flyers out there in growing economies that many US carriers will never be able to tap into.

I never disputed Cathay Pacific's ability to fill 777s in Asia. What I am disputing is how Emirates will fill 120 A-380s from Dubai. This ain't rocket science its just the facts. The N. American market still constitutes 50% of all air traffic and Dubai can't tap into that market very effectively. I'm not flying currently in N. America, I am an ExPat so I have been around the block a few times mister arrogant. I think Emirates has a great market and can fill a niche in certain markets but time will tell whether 120 A-380s can be filled. My bet in a big NOOOOOOO!

 

[johnsonrod]

True - but LHR, LGW, CDG & FRA all destinations in themselves, not transit stops - the essence of the argument in the AC/EK dispute.

Couldn't agree more.

I'll reiterate - I'm no fan of AC, but I do believe in fair play.

Good point, but I'd argue that Dubai, with its Palm Islands, huge malls, indoor ski slopes and the world's tallest building, would also be considered a destination by many people - like London, Paris and Frankfurt. In fact, I'd rather visit Dubai than Frankfurt (except during the hot summer). So, it's all semantics (word play) and it doesn't hide the fact that the Canadians can't compete with EK's product (especially the luxurious A380) and high service standard. The Canadian hosers just can't admit it.

IMO, the Canadian military base should be tossed out of the UAE - it's called reciprocity. You should expect a response to these constraints. It's time to to liberalize trade and actually help Canadian citizens get where they want to go worldwide instead of restricting that ability. The US would allow A380s to US airports if EK were interested in more flights beyond JFK - they probably wouldn't restrict access like Canada. Air Canada should compete for business (both through better service and lower fares) vs. runaway and hide behind gov't restrictions. US airlines are competing internationally with EK through their alliances and high service standards - why can't Air Canada?

 

[Cpt. Underpants]

Palm Islands, huge malls, indoor ski slopes and the world's tallest building

Mall of the Americas - in 110 degree heat? Why ski indoors (I've been there, by the way. It's a bunny slope at best) when the best skiing is in Aspen, Telluride or Whistler? Buildings, schmuildings. Seen one, seen 'em all.

What EK want is a 300% + increase in seats (for starters) and THEN multiple daily services to YVR, YYC, YEG, YWG (WTF!) YYZ, YHZ and YUL. Get the F out.

Not proven, but ICAO is pretty sure EK pays a lot less than most for fuel, landing fees, overflight, navigation and finance - it's the new OPEC.

Emirates has been pushing for up to 50 new takeoff and landing slots over the long term, but Air Canada and Transport Canada oppose the distribution of so many new flights, saying there have to be “reciprocal” benefits, and not the one-sided advantages for the UAE.

Air Canada argues that Emirates doesn’t really want to fly customers between Canada and Dubai, but instead sees the foreign carrier as aggressively seeking to skim off lucrative international traffic via the UAE.

Hoser? I haven't sucked gas out of a tank in at least a month!