Delta to hire again?

[General Lee]

Easy Children........

Heyas,

Agreed. Despite what the pundits say, domestic and international traffic has fallen off a cliff. Oil could be free and it wouldn't make any difference. There are no passengers at any price.

The recession is going to deepen into a full blown depression, with out of control inflation. Expect double digit interest rates and unemployment numbers. Think 1977 except that this time even the rich people are broke.

My guess: Parking another 20-30 mainline aircraft, AT A MINIMUM, plus a WHOLE passel of DCI aircraft.

Furloughs later in 09. DAL side first, then NWA side 2-3 months later.

No recalls until mid 2011, at the earliest.

Nu

Come on now. Easy. We all know that late Jan and into Feb is normally slow, since kids are back in school and Spring Break is a couple months away. Yes, the economy is tanking, but oil is down and our hedges go down after Q1. Here is what Ed Bastain said 10 days ago:


Delta president confident despite global drop in airline revenue

By Freesun New s at 18 January, 2009, 10:26 am

Delta Air Lines President Edward Bastian predicts a 10% drop in worldwide airline revenues this year — but it would take a 20% drop at Delta to wipe out an estimated $5 billion the airline will save as a result of lower fuel costs. Bastian also said his company’s October merger with Northwest Airlines would save billions in operating costs, helping the new Delta to ride out the downturn. “We are well prepared both through our cost structure and merger benefits … as well as the fuel savings to be able to withstand the challenges and actually come out in a better spot,” he told reporters in Tokyo on Thursday.



I talked with a buddy of mine in the CP office here in ATL and there was a large conference call today with all base CPs and Flight Ops managers (all FNWA bases included too), and no mention of furloughs at all. Apparently they are still aiming for early 2010 for SOC, and increasing DC9 hours flown per day. Yes, the economy is bad and there are lots of empty seats out there, but remember what usually happens in late Jan EVERY YEAR. Not the busiest times for any airline. Delta has always been a big Spring and Summer airline, and it will probably continue that way. If we have a very slow Summer, then things could change, but I think we have already cut capacity and by that time our exposure to high fuel hedges will be decreased. RA did state a solid year profit for 09, so we'll just have to see how bad the recession will be.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[anewunion]

O .K . It's official, we are heading out of the recession.

Everyone knows that by the time the common folk (Airline pilots) realizes that it's a recession, it's almost over.

(Kinda like buying a good stock)

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Of course this is the slowest time of the year, but you need to look at the year over year number. I can tell you that we are off over 10% from our 2007 numbers, and the only thing saving this industry as a whole is the price of crude.
If we were at the levels of last summer most if not all of us would be in CH 11. The restructuring that was done has save our bacon today.
It is a difficult time, do doubt about it. We better hope for decent spring and summer numbers.

 

[FBN0223]

I talked with a buddy of mine in the CP office here in ATL and there was a large conference call today with all base CPs and Flight Ops managers (all FNWA bases included too), and no mention of furloughs at all. Apparently they are still aiming for early 2010 for SOC, and increasing DC9 hours flown per day. Yes, the economy is bad and there are lots of empty seats out there, but remember what usually happens in late Jan EVERY YEAR. Not the busiest times for any airline. Delta has always been a big Spring and Summer airline, and it will probably continue that way. If we have a very slow Summer, then things could change, but I think we have already cut capacity and by that time our exposure to high fuel hedges will be decreased. RA did state a solid year profit for 09, so we'll just have to see how bad the recession will be.


Bye Bye--General Lee

I don't think we would hear the word "furlough" from management until they actually announce, "We're furloughing ___pilots."

Hopefully, staffing reductions will come via early retirement incentives vs furloughs but I do think we are headed for a staffing level of around 10,000-10,500 active pilots.

 

[General Lee]

I don't think we would hear the word "furlough" from management until they actually announce, "We're furloughing ___pilots."

Hopefully, staffing reductions will come via early retirement incentives vs furloughs but I do think we are headed for a staffing level of around 10,000-10,500 active pilots.

Is that a "gut" feeling, or something more than that? I know there will be some FNWA retirements sooner than any FDAL retirements, but probably not to the magnitude that you are suggesting. This recession is forcast to turnaround next year. Fingers crossed, but I don't really know where you are coming up with your numbers FBN. They would have to get rid of all of those people pre-SOC, or they will also have to get rid of 6 seats out of every 76 seat RJ additionally. Post SOC, that would mean about 400 people total or loss of those seats and associated revenue and time.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Lets put it this way. If you furlough the "new hires" of 07 and 08 you get quite close to the 10500 mark. It is really the only way they could do this and not take a kit with the Scope seat trigger. I can see them delaying SOC to accomplish this.
That said, we are in no way short enough to do this. Now cut another 12-18% off the the schedule and you are right there.
Needless to say, times are tough, but sleep well at night, there is nothing you or I can do to change this economy from the flight deck.
I am suspecting this summers to be way off, but for loads to start picking up later in the year.

 

[tbkane]

Yes 10,500 would put me on the street but more importantly they can only furlough about 450 without hitting the rj rest as long as the furlough is post SOC. So unless this recession is really bad, loss of first class in ALL rj900's that DAL management wanted so bad would now make all the rj900's ver y expensive rj 700's, and they can never put those seats back in.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Exactly TB.

I have heard some very small rumblings of some early outs, but nothing that would make it to sound like a good rumor.
There are many ways to come up with this so called 10,500 number, but there are also a lot of reasons to avoid the furlough.
I will say with out any certain info, that if I was not protected by this Seat Scope trigger post SOC, I would make sure I had my bases covered. It just makes sense. Heck, I do and I have some cushion.
We may shrink with retirements, maybe a few furloughs, but nothing more for the next few years. I have always said this, what worries me the most is when we lose the no furlough protection in the JPWA. It is weak but after two years they could park all of the 9's or 88's for that fact, and the bottom 450 as TB pointed out would be gone with no aircraft on order and no recourse. If that happened it would be two years before the retirements started to truly kick in.
What we have is a few years to hope and pray that we as an industry see the passenger levels of yesteryear.

 

[FBN0223]

Is that a "gut" feeling, or something more than that? I know there will be some FNWA retirements sooner than any FDAL retirements, but probably not to the magnitude that you are suggesting. This recession is forcast to turnaround next year. Fingers crossed, but I don't really know where you are coming up with your numbers FBN. They would have to get rid of all of those people pre-SOC, or they will also have to get rid of 6 seats out of every 76 seat RJ additionally. Post SOC, that would mean about 400 people total or loss of those seats and associated revenue and time.


Bye Bye--General Lee

It's definitely something more. Firstly, we may have the ability to reduce staffing dramatically without furloughs but staffing levels will be reduced.

Why 10,500?

1) The economy.

2)Freighters going away. That's 300 plus pilot position gone. Many will retire or be forced to retire, i.e. over 60 SO's who missed out on 65.

3) Synergies. When RA and crew talk about 1+1=3, they should also tell us how 1+1=1. In other words, DL and NW are not going to compete against themselves. LAX HNL for example, now only Delta service where there was DL and NW. Next there's the argument that both companies have little overlap. True. But in most cases, DL and NW still compete against each other, they just get you to your destination via different routing. Ever go on Orbitz or Travelocity and see DL and NW as two different options on most routes? Synergies equal efficiencies and doing more with less.

4) DC-9. Ok, we're increasing the DC-9 utilization but at the same decreasing the B757 flying. Probably will be a wash in staffing. You'll see the DC-9 go away in a few years and we've yet to see an aircraft reach the drawing board that has the interest of DL. DC-9s equal another 650 positions.

5) The economy. Did I say that already? Most forecasters that I have been listening to say hold on for the next two years and that's if all the pieces fall into place to get us out of this disaster.

 

[Monster Buck]

We are going to hire 281 pilots. How do I know?, I pulled it out of my azz and qualified it with my vast knowledge of economics I learned from reading the USA Today while flying. BTW I am smarter than the the FED that people here say doesn't know what he is doing. If I were in charge boy would I fix things. Also that person people make fun of by sarcastically saying "he will save us" who happens to be a very decorated Harvard grad and teacher. But I'm sure that all those smart folks here saying that will show him how it is done. Maybe AC will go ask all the inside people he is so graced to know the TRUTH and we can all be spared from quessing and finally have the "inside scoop". I'm sure we can take it to the bank.
All quess work based on probably 5% of the economics behind the real decision All the while we think we have around 80-90 % of it. What a joke.

 

[NuGuy]

We are going to hire 281 pilots. How do I know?, I pulled it out of my azz and qualified it with my vast knowledge of economics I learned from reading the USA Today while flying. BTW I am smarter than the the FED that people here say doesn't know what he is doing. If I were in charge boy would I fix things. Also that person people make fun of by sarcastically saying "he will save us" who happens to be a very decorated Harvard grad and teacher. But I'm sure that all those smart folks here saying that will show him how it is done. Maybe AC will go ask all the inside people he is so graced to know the TRUTH and we can all be spared from quessing and finally have the "inside scoop". I'm sure we can take it to the bank.
All quess work based on probably 5% of the economics behind the real decision All the while we think we have around 80-90 % of it. What a joke.

On a more serious note, when you look for charitable giving this year, please consider "Pilots against Drunk Internet Posting" (PADIP)...

With your help, we can work to avoid tragic, incomprehensible postings, such as the one above.

Please, give generously.

Nu

PS Also consider the "United Appeal for the Dead"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YQof6tnZbM

 

[DAL737FO]

Yes 10,500 would put me on the street but more importantly they can only furlough about 450 without hitting the rj rest as long as the furlough is post SOC. So unless this recession is really bad, loss of first class in ALL rj900's that DAL management wanted so bad would now make all the rj900's ver y expensive rj 700's, and they can never put those seats back in.

TK,

You of all people should realize that the company is not worried about losing those 6 seats. Let's take a look at the history of our furlough here at Delta. We had a cap of 75 hours while people were on furlough. A little negotiation with DALPA and that problem was fixed. Need a recall rate of only 10 pilots a month because that is all the training department can handle (historic rates be damned) no problem.

I guess what I'm saying is that if the company comes to the union and plays the "We need this or we are shutting the doors" card. Then the company will get it. I'm not a doom and gloom guy but I would tell a new hire not to hedge his/her bets on furlough protection language of any sort.

 

[Monster Buck]

On a more serious note, when you look for charitable giving this year, please consider "Pilots against Drunk Internet Posting" (PADIP)...

With your help, we can work to avoid tragic, incomprehensible postings, such as the one above.

Please, give generously.

Nu

PS Also consider the "United Appeal for the Dead"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YQof6tnZbM

Ostritch head, meet sand.

Airlines are a harbinger of business. No loads = no future business.

Where I live is also a tell tale sign of the economy. There are a LOT of boat dealers, construction people and other luxury providers out of business down here.

That means a lot of broke, ex-rich people, and a LOT of out of work middle class people that use to work for them. This trickle down WILL hurt. I called out the housing crisis 8 months before it happened by watching the same signs. Ignore at your own peril.

Maybe Mr. O is going to wave his magic wand and kiss our knees and make it all better, but I'm kinda doubting it.

I'll say it again. Save money, get out of debt by any means possible. Put a month's worth (three is better) of pay into CASH (as in currency) and put it somewhere safe. Gold works, too, but get the actual, physical metal...not some worthless paper.

Watch the movie "Rollover" if you want any idea what's coming our way.

Why the tone? I would think since you are so smart and well spoken you would have something better. Is it because your one of the Economist I'm speaking of and it hurt your feelings? Or was your response was not in your copy of the Money section? Or from the diner down the street. I'll gladly follow some more of your investment wisdom. Maybe you can call it 8 months in advance again.

 

[NuGuy]

Why the tone? I would think since you are so smart and well spoken you would have something better. Is it because your one of the Economist I'm speaking of and it hurt your feelings? Or was your response was not in your copy of the Money section? Or from the diner down the street. I'll gladly follow some more of your investment wisdom. Maybe you can call it 8 months in advance again.

Tsk, tsk. Sounds like the ramblings of someone who followed the herd and lost %30-40 in the stock market or bought some property at it's peak because "real estate never goes down".

Bummer. If I were you, I'd stop listening to Harvard grads and do what's good for yourself.

Nu

 

[JoeMerchant]

So if traffic continues to decline....the company has two choices.....

1. Keep pilots on the payroll that are not needed which increases costs....

or

2. Take out 6 high revenue seats...which will decrease revenue...

That benefits DAL how? Do either solutions help get the company back to profitablity?

 

[propdog]

The key will be future bookings. Most of my flights have been half full. I did a DFW turn and we were half empty. That make me think uh-oh, not good. We will find out in a couple of months what the company's decision regarding furloughs.

Until we get a Single Operating Certificate, from which side we furlough from will be up to the company. Who side will they park? Who knows.

Pretty much the same deal on the international side. Most of our European flights are running just around half-full too....except Asia. NRT is still showing some pretty good load factors with some overbooked flights. But the rest of our international routes does not look too good on load factors.

Then again, January is the slowest time of the year.
Also, I did some research on load factors on other carriers like CAL, UAL etc. They are all in the same boat as well concerning loads....if not worse.

 

[nwaredtail]

2)Freighters going away. That's 300 plus pilot position gone. Many will retire or be forced to retire, i.e. over 60 SO's who missed out on 65.

actually, 224.

 

[JohnDoe]

I will say with out any certain info, that if I was not protected by this Seat Scope trigger post SOC, I would make sure I had my bases covered.

What is the date of hire for this "scope trigger" both pre and post SOC? I assume it applies to someone regardless of their FDAL or FNWA status?? Or is it only a FDAL clause?

 

[ACL65PILOT]

It is in the JPWA so it is for all.

 

[General Lee]

So if traffic continues to decline....the company has two choices.....

1. Keep pilots on the payroll that are not needed which increases costs....

or

2. Take out 6 high revenue seats...which will decrease revenue...

That benefits DAL how? Do either solutions help get the company back to profitablity?

Profitability? Have you seen any articles lately? Why are most airlines unprofitable now? It was due to high oil in the PAST 2 quarters. Oil is now lower, and after Q1 of this year, most airlines will be profitable, and Delta said lower oil will helps us get profitable for 09, and save $5 billion this year. With lower oil, we can have 50% load factors. A bad economy will force oil even lower, which is our 1st or 2nd largest fixed cost. What you will see is a parking of mo It and a decrease in frequency. If a route used to have 6 RJs a day on it, you may see 3 DC9s. Larger city pairs will have 3 757s, and a few MD88s or 73Ns.
There is a downgage on some routes, but shifting mainly to fully owned DC9s that used to only fly 4.5 hours a day on average, bumped up to 9 or 10, and those DC9s will go after Airtran routes that used to have RJs competing directly with them.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Superpilot92]

Exactly TB.

I have heard some very small rumblings of some early outs, but nothing that would make it to sound like a good rumor.
There are many ways to come up with this so called 10,500 number, but there are also a lot of reasons to avoid the furlough.
I will say with out any certain info, that if I was not protected by this Seat Scope trigger post SOC, I would make sure I had my bases covered. It just makes sense. Heck, I do and I have some cushion.
We may shrink with retirements, maybe a few furloughs, but nothing more for the next few years. I have always said this, what worries me the most is when we lose the no furlough protection in the JPWA. It is weak but after two years they could park all of the 9's or 88's for that fact, and the bottom 450 as TB pointed out would be gone with no aircraft on order and no recourse. If that happened it would be two years before the retirements started to truly kick in.
What we have is a few years to hope and pray that we as an industry see the passenger levels of yesteryear.

They cant just park all those planes with no replacements and still support the domestic and international markets. NWA has said many times before that post 911/bankruptcy that the domestic flying was cut "to much" to feed the markets. Those planes would have to be replaced with something and they cant just replace them with "RJs" per our scope unless they are flown on the mainline ticket. The good thing is that the -9s are paid for and are flexible throughout the system, especially valuable right now since the credit market is shot.

 

[FBN0223]

2)Freighters going away. That's 300 plus pilot position gone. Many will retire or be forced to retire, i.e. over 60 SO's who missed out on 65.

actually, 224.

I used Jan 09 Staffing.

B747-200

Capt 110
FO 93
SO 134
Total 337

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Want to bet Super. They did it after 9-11 and shrunk. RJ's filled some of it but not all of it. They can do it again in a receding economy. Never say never.

 

[General Lee]

What is the date of hire for this "scope trigger" both pre and post SOC? I assume it applies to someone regardless of their FDAL or FNWA status?? Or is it only a FDAL clause?

Sept 1st, 2001. After the SLI, lots of DL 07 hires were merged in with FNWA guys hired before that date. The only time those guys wil be protected would be AFTER SOC--which DL is aiming for Jan 1st, 10 but more realistically sometime in the Q1 of 2010.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

I used Jan 09 Staffing.

B747-200

Capt 110
FO 93
SO 134
Total 337

I have a feeling that will be done pre SOC. If that happens, they will offer those guys DTW/MSP/MEM/SEA---and a lot won't want to do that, and may retire.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Pretty much the same deal on the international side. Most of our European flights are running just around half-full too....except Asia. NRT is still showing some pretty good load factors with some overbooked flights. But the rest of our international routes does not look too good on load factors.

Then again, January is the slowest time of the year.
Also, I did some research on load factors on other carriers like CAL, UAL etc. They are all in the same boat as well concerning loads....if not worse.

One thing that is good about our Europe stuff is that we both have a mix of aircraft for those lower loads. We got 17 ex TWA 757ERs that could be used to swap our larger 763ERs if needed during slower times, and we can place them on routes that do better during "our Winter" and South America's "Summer." It is called fleet flexibility. We didn't have that before we got the 757ERs. We just lowered the frequency on our ERs. I remember 72 hour layovers as common place in Europe during most Winters---which isn't bad at nice destinations. This is the slow season--always has been, it's just the economy hasn't helped any. This airline gears up for the busy seasons--Spring and Summer, and parking 100 RJs and some mainline planes means there won't be as many seats out there this Spring and Summner--which means we can funnel pax on our remaining planes.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Superpilot92]

What is the date of hire for this "scope trigger" both pre and post SOC? I assume it applies to someone regardless of their FDAL or FNWA status?? Or is it only a FDAL clause?

Basically it would be more benefitial for the company to furlough DAL pilots before SOC because after SOC the 2001 mark gets closer to the bottom of the list since the nwa side has 2001 hires mixed in with DAL 2008 hires.

 

[Superpilot92]

Want to bet Super. They did it after 9-11 and shrunk. RJ's filled some of it but not all of it. They can do it again in a receding economy. Never say never.

Thats why scope is there is it not?

 

[General Lee]

Want to bet Super. They did it after 9-11 and shrunk. RJ's filled some of it but not all of it. They can do it again in a receding economy. Never say never.

We have to feed our INTL connections, and we still have to compete with Airtran and other LCCs. Look at Virgin America and Jetblue expanding on transcons (JB announced BOS/JFK to LAX today). We have to compete still with those guys. We may not have 7 or 8 flights a day on those types of routes, but we will have a presence. (I don't know if we will do BOS-LAX though--we used to) 100 RJs are gone, with more to come. I see fewer frequecies overall, with fewer RJs and more DC9s covering. That alone will unclog the airways and save us even more money.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Basically it would be more benefitial for the company to furlough DAL pilots before SOC because after SOC the 2001 mark gets closer to the bottom of the list since the nwa side has 2001 hires mixed in with DAL 2008 hires.

So far we only believe that your NWA 742s are getting the axe soon. We know that some MD88s and some 757/767s have been parked, but not to a large extent. It would be far more expensive to park the 742s after SOC, since those pilots would bump many more pilots at many more bases, causing a lot more training total. The only reason to keep the 742s right now is for the NRT slots, and they may be trying to get waivers to keep them, since very few airlines out there have the ability to expand there anyway. Every airline is pulling back, and most cargo carriers have parked their 742s already or are about to.

Bye Bye--General Lee