...and at the same time increasing unit revenues. When you pull a MD88 out of a market and put a CRJ900 in, the cost of the ticket generally increases on decreased supply.
You will always have some business travellers that pay whatever it costs for last minute travel.
The retired folks and families of four on priceline.com tickets will most always fill up an airplane to sunny destinations, but rarely pay the costs to actually get them there.
The problem is half empty 50 seaters going to cities which are only a 30 minute drive to a major hub. Particularly those cities which have welched on their marketing agreements to pay for jet service.
I see the RJ's doing MD88 flying, the MD88's doing 757 flying, 757's doing 767 flying etc.... Eventually we will have agreed to outsource almost all domestic narrowbody flying and that really stinks. On the other side AirFrance / KLM and others are happy to do our International operations.
ALPA needs to get religion about scope!
The downguaging that you're referring to assumes maintaining the same frequency. It also does not take into account what happens to the 777 when it's replaced with a 767.
The 777s would need to be sold. United dumped a bunch of 747s on the world market (and I think 777s, but am not positive). They went dirt cheap. Fortunately, there was a market for them. What if a bunch of the majors start dumping their widebodies? No, that's why I think frequency will decrease this time around.
Let me give you one city pair example. United on PHX-LAX. There are 5 daily 50 seaters that fly that route. 250 seats.
What if United went to 3 70 seaters and dump the 50 seaters?
Now we've got a hole where the 70 seaters were flying. Plug in 2 A319s - still cheaper than 3 RJ70s. Plug in 1 757 into the market served by 2 319s.
This is an incredibly complex puzzle where I am using very simple examples; the airlines use supercomputers to build their schedules. I can't give you a 'solid' example across multiple guages while sipping a beverage (hey, it's 5 o'clock somewhere) that will not have holes in it.
And yes, alpo does need to get religion about scope. However, I'm convinced that alpo's run by these guys: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/3a/Stoogelogo.gif