Delta TA impact on Delta Connection...

[xjhawk]

If we merge with Comair I am sure they will fight for DOH instead of CAT/Class. I am sure that will screw over most. Kidding, god how I hope I am kidding.

 

[xjhawk]

What makes sense business wise does not neccessarily make sense financially.

If you read the BK filings closely if delta gets what they want out of PCL they will convert the DIP financing to longer term exit financing. In other words - rather than own PCL they saddle them with a big loan. There are numeous advantages to that plan versus out right ownership. That is why Delta provided financing to PCL to buy Mesaba rather than doing the transaction with stock. If Delta does not supply any exit financing the possibility of PCL coming out of BK is slim. The possibility of the rest of the creditiors accepting any exit plan that leaves PCL too small to be profitable is slim. My guess is PCL comes out of this roughly the same size revenue wise (not hulls) as its current delta operation or it shuts down.

Piecing together all the information from this and other boards Delta has an agreement in place with Bombardier/EDC to take PCL 50 seaters in a trade for new 900's. First DALPA has to ratify their TA for that to happen.

The new 900's don't have to go to PCL - they can go to any carrier.

This also presents DAL with an opportunity to do something with CMR. No one will buy them. Out of this DAL can force a shotgun marriage if they choose to. 'Here is CMR and a loan to go with it if you want any exit finanancing'. DAL finally gets something for CMR and the rest of the creditors will acept it because it increases the total enterprise value and stock value. It is possible CMR's 700's go to GO JETS and their 900's go to PCL.

All speculation but if you follow the money it is where 'the deal is'. Of course the PCL pilots could always screw the deal up for everyone.

I would have to agree with you. The position Delta has put itself in has them in the drivers seat and allows for the parking (return to lease holder for follow on leasing overseas) of the Pinnacle 200's as they are the newest ones out there. Those 70 or so 76 seat planes from the Delta TA can go anywhere (read that whoever gives up the most crj 200's in exchange for those new aircraft). This leaves anyone at Pinnacle in a very bad position. That is unless you can currently hold CRJ 900 Captain. Because it seems those will stay untouched (not the ATL ones-those are as good as gone).

I have heard another bit of information. That Delta, as the one providing t DIP financing forced Pinnacle to renegotiate the crj 200 ASA agreement to make them unprofitable for Pinnacle. The next move in bankruptcy will be to declare the 200 flying unprofitable to the judge that there is a huge need to park the crj 200's as they are unprofitable. Delta wants them parked, they will be parked. It can also then also be used to say if we as pilots want more 900's we will have to take extremely low rates and maybe we will get those 76 seat planes from the Delta Pilot TA. Then Delta can choose what is most beneficial to them, leverage to reduce the remaining 200's in their system or very low pilot rates when it decides where the Delta TA crj 900's go.

I sure hope this takes 3 years. By that time I and anyone else who is smart can leave Pinnacle.

 

[JustaNumber]

I have heard another bit of information. That Delta, as the one providing the DIP financing forced Pinnacle to renegotiate the crj 200 ASA agreement to make them unprofitable for Pinnacle. The next move in bankruptcy will be to declare the 200 flying unprofitable to the judge that there is a huge need to park the crj 200's as they are unprofitable.

One would think a judge would be able to see through the bs, and realize that since an external entity is directing the money and the contracts, that external entity is the one who should be subject to the directions of the court. That Delta itself is not in bankruptcy is all the more reason why they shouldn't be able to renegotiate anything. Major conflict of interest. Unless the judge doesn't mind the corruption.

It's like if I wanted to start JustaNumber's Lemonade Stand, but I didn't like the idea of competing with the other stands. So I go to a lemon supplier and quietly tell them, "I'll buy a HUGE lemon order from you if you give it to me below cost. And if/when you get into trouble financially, don't worry, I'll take care of you (wink wink)." The lemon supplier gives me the deal, and of course can't make ends meet, and declares BK. I then come in with a generous dip offer, but insist that the already low contracted lemon price be cut in half, as a condition of my financing. The lemon supplier then goes to the judge and demands that his contracts with the lemon farmers be cut in half, because "lemons are inherently unprofitable." The judge agrees, new contracts are made, and I laugh all the way to the bank. Shouldn't I be thrown in jail? Or the judge? Or whoever came up with the concept of Chapter 11 to begin with?

 

[Flyer1015]

If we merge with Comair I am sure they will fight for DOH instead of CAT/Class. I am sure that will screw over most. Kidding, god how I hope I am kidding.

Here's how the proposal would go...

Comair: DOH

Pinnacle:

9E Captains
9E FOs
Comair Captains
Comair FOs

 

[79%N1]

^^^^^^So basically a staple......

 

[Flyer1015]

^^^^^^So basically a staple......

It's a staple dressed as a category/class method. Same scrap they tried to pull with Colgan. It didn't work, with the arbitrator seeing right through it.

 

[xjhawk]

Just remember that either way it would be a screw job for Pinnacle pilots. If I am not mistaken Comair has more 700's and 900's than they do 200's. So even on a cat/class it would go like this.

The top 30% of Pinnacle (those driving the 900 now) merged with the Top of Comair
(a win for those super senior Comair folk)

All 700 Comair pilots (captains)

A merger with the small number of 200 Comair pilots and the rest of Pinnacle captains.

SO there you go. DOH would be worse but this scenario would be bad too.

 

[Flyer1015]

That is true! Good point.

 

[i fly boxes]

My prediction is that 70 200's will come from pinnacle. Way back in 2007 in our agreement with nwa there is a prevision that says that 70 aircraft may be removed if there is a change of control of the company. So If delta purchases us to turn us into the next comair, they can remove 70 200's over a 3 year period. What a coincidence, delta wants the 200's down to 125 within 3 years! There is also a stipulation in that original asa that says they can extend our contract for 5 years with no rate resets, what a coincidence, they just did that! It also says they can exchange 200's for 900s on a one for one basis, so since pinnacle has 140 200's and 70 of them will probably be parked if delta purchases us, that leaves 70 left. How many more 900's does delta want? 70! SO, pinnacle may be an airline of aprox. 100-125 900's in 3 years.

Decided to re post this, because even if Delta does not buy us. I think this scenario is very likely for pinnacle.

 

[flyboyike]

Just remember that either way it would be a screw job for Pinnacle pilots. If I am not mistaken Comair has more 700's and 900's than they do 200's. So even on a cat/class it would go like this.

The top 30% of Pinnacle (those driving the 900 now) merged with the Top of Comair
(a win for those super senior Comair folk)

All 700 Comair pilots (captains)

A merger with the small number of 200 Comair pilots and the rest of Pinnacle captains.

SO there you go. DOH would be worse but this scenario would be bad too.

Where does that put a 5.5 year Comair FO?