Um.. alright, since you brought up the CNBC link again we will have to derail this thread again. Two views you can take here, cynical or pragmatic. Lets look at both.
Cynical - Deutsche Bank analysts probably take home in the range of 7 figure salaries and bonuses. The vast majority of their clients probably make 500K or more. They have a vested interest in seeing these tax cuts remain so they will make the data work for them. They say as bad as 1.5% but probably more like 1.1% decrease in GDP. So whats the as good as scenario, there is only the bad and the best guess presented. Maybe best case their is a small growth? But that doesn't help their clients invest more money with them.
Pragmatic. Maybe letting the cuts expire does directly affect the GDP slightly. However it does not predict how much consumer confidence might swing when the American people see the government doing something to help address the debt. How much of a gain might we see out of that? Where is that in the analysis.
Lastly, it says the GDP may shrink by 1.1%. Most of this discussion has been about tax revenues, nowhere does it predict how those might change. Even with a decrease in GDP tax revenues may rise significantly.
Oh.. and lets not forget most of these expert analysts predicted that there was no housing bubble and the economy couldn't crash in 09. So take anything they say with a big honking grain of salt.
More importantly.. Baja, you saw someone today going for a Delta interview tomorrow? That would be exciting.
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