Delta acquisition of NWA almost finalized!

[Schwanker]

Nu,

Thanks for updating Schwanker with the facts. The truth hurts.

I don't think he speaks for the collective Delta group and he is showing his lack of seniority when he grasps at straws to interperate the facts in his favor.

The sooner we all realize that this is a merger of equals, the sooner we can all lower our expectations for that big windfall decision from the aribitrators. No one is going to be completely happy and I am fine with that.

I think a big reason for the uptick in bodies needed on the DC9 is due to the fact that DAL wants to keep the -50 series. This is going to be a combined airline and RA is already shaping it to be that way.

Nice try Shwanker. Let the professionals do the arbitrating and try to stick to the facts and keep the emotions out of it. I am sure your peers at Delta would appreciate it. I appreciate a good debate, but only when facts are used instead of emotion.

Divisiveness is going to get us NOWHERE.

RedRum,
Are you sure you're speaking to the right person? Maybe you should re-read my posts and see where I work. Nu just re-emphasized my point.

Schwanker

 

[GogglesPisano]

Without a large expansion at the stand alone dal(which would not happen with the current/future economic environment) the bottom guys at dal would be bottom for a long, long time.

I'm perfectly happy to be a lineholder in the 767ER. At year 3 pay I will be content making close to $100/hr with override and enjoying 48hr layovers in Europe.

Let's hope the arbitrators don't allow me to "windfall" into the right seat of a -9 in DeToilet.

 

[Schwanker]

Are you kidding me? I've been with DAL 14 months, I am 600 numbers away from captain, holding a line on the B767, flying Europe and South America, 16 days off blocked for 109 hours, with per diem at 2.40$. Yeah I am ok being at the bottom. Oh yeah, another $10,000 month.

Thank you very much, and the best of it all, one leg a day, with 1/3 of the flight in a bussiness class seat.

Jetjockey,
How many years will it be before you see 600 retirements from the original DAL list? It will be a long time! At NWA, we'll lose well over 2000 before you see 600.

 

[~~~^~~~]

As a NWA new hire in FEB 2008, the following is where I would stand for total seniority with a DAL NWA ....

I just re-read the Nicolau award and he put a lot of effort into trying to maintain pre-merger career expectations.

His ratios were constructed so as to not to cause a displacement from any pilot's current position and provided for any pilot then in training to continue to the position they were training for. Then, he used a fence to protect the US Air senior international flying and this fence extended to replacement aircraft. This fence was intended to preserve pre-merger expectations.

I don't know if anyone remembers my "fair plan" where each side would be able to stove pipe up their own airline's retirement flow, but the fence had the same intent at US Air.

America West was thought to have the better contract pre-merger and that would benefit the US Air guys. The US Air pilots had better retirement succession due to their age. These factors appear to have been balanced and cancelled (as I expect they will be with the DAL/NWA SLI).

Fortunately Delta and NWA do not have the huge problem of furloughs. At US Air the furloughs went back to 16.4 years seniority. That was the part of the Nicolau award that was packed in dynamite and drew the only dissenting opinion from the Pilot neutral.

Forecast (JMWAO based on Nicolau's logic)

I don't see nearly the problems, nor the threat, or a US Air style meltdown.

If past action is an indicator of future results, I think Arbitration Panelists will cancel out the NWA retirements with DAL's pre merger contract, growth, lrager number of retirements and equipment. If there is a correction needed, I think it will come in a form of bid protection, or fence. (not dynamic seniority, but the same effect)

The ratios will be driven by relative seniority based on equipment (stacked in order of pre-JPWA pay).

Looking at other, more ethereal factors, an equipment order and promises of growth will take the sting off any discontent. Several things seem to add up to more 777’s and 737’s.

Again, just my opinion ....

(for any US Air pilots reading this, I'm not taking sides on Nicolau, just trying to see how that logic might be applied to a DAL/NWA scenario)

 

[FDJ2]

Nu,

Thanks for updating Schwanker with the facts. The truth hurts.

Ready.....Shoot.....Aim

 

[NuGuy]

I like numbers, where did you get yours?

I'm guessing you must be young to be projecting 30 years out.

The average Delta hire in 2007 was 37 (almost 38), so I know that they are not looking 30 years ahead.

If you have some sort of program you and paste the list into, I can PM you the seniority list to check the accuracy of your number generator.

Heyas Fins,

He got his data from an EXCELLENT website that is run by one of our pilots. This information is auto-generated by using the most recent, date equivalent seniority lists. His data has been verified to be accurate.

My personal numbers, show a similar trend. Even with a DOH merger, I get a SLIGHT kicker the first year, but then I lose ground every year after that, peaking around 15 years out when I'm 22 percent down from my "expectation".

His assumptions, for the purposes of calculation, are that everyone goes to 65, with no early outs or medical retirements. The actual trends at NWA are significantly different, with at least %50 of those eligible choosing to retire, but in most months, it is considerably higher, on the order of %65-70.

The real issue is the "bubble" that pops days before DCC. The post DCC NWA list is going to be considerably different.

Nu

 

[FDJ2]

..... NI !

CE

Brave Sir Robin ran away.
Bravely ran away, away!
When danger reared its ugly head,
He bravely turned his tail and fled.
Yes, brave Sir Robin turned about
And gallantly he chickened out.
Bravely taking to his feet
He beat a very brave retreat,
Bravest of the brave, Sir Robin!

He is packing it in and packing it up
And sneaking away and buggering up
And chickening out and pissing off home,
Yes, bravely he is throwing in the sponge... ​

:beer:​

 

[NuGuy]

America West was thought to have the better contract pre-merger and that would benefit the US Air guys. The US Air pilots had better retirement succession due to their age. These factors appear to have been balanced and cancelled (as I expect they will be with the DAL/NWA SLI).

Heyas Fins,

That's assuming that you are only looking at W-2. Taken as a whole, with the QoL, protections and other factors, the two PWAs are/were roughly comparable.

I don't think that will be as much of a kicker as you expect.

Nu

 

[~~~^~~~]

I was just paraphrasing from Nicoleau, his opinion, not mine.

Got a link to the website?

 

[jetjockey#1]

Jetjockey,
How many years will it be before you see 600 retirements from the original DAL list? It will be a long time! At NWA, we'll lose well over 2000 before you see 600.

So far in 14 months, my number has decreased about 200 numbers. I am not sure if retirements, or else. Quick question for you.

Can you guarantee that your senior guys will retire at 60? No you can not, because the fact of the matter is; why would you want to retire with an equity payout hanging over your head, $28,000-$50,000 depending on the price of the stock, a 30% hourly pay raise over 4 years, much better work rules, and your pension is secured, I am sorry what am I missing?

As far as the SLI, I am a junior line holder in a widebody. I should be senior to any F/O at NWA who can not hold a line on a widebody, period. That is the only way we will not be affected. You should be able to hold the same equipment, and schedule the day after the list integration just like you did the day before the integration. I know that sucks for all those F/Os from the 90s that never had a chance to fly, not S/O, but to actually fly a widebody all over the world. But, the day after the integration, they should not be able to bid ahead of any widebody lineholder at DAL regardless of our DOH.

Just be thankful, we are not raising holly hell requesting pay parity as far as a pension is concerned. I know, I know, you gave up the money and work rules to keep your pension, and we did the opposite. But now, you get our money and keep your pension, and still you guys sound like you are being raped. I guess the 82% pass rate on the contract speaks for itself.

Just accept the fact that NWA is getting a much much better deal than DAL pilots so far.......... Maybe that will change in about a month.

 

[Noserider76]

As far as the SLI, I am a junior line holder in a widebody. I should be senior to any F/O at NWA who can not hold a line on a widebody, period. That is the only way we will not be affected. You should be able to hold the same equipment, and schedule the day after the list integration just like you did the day before the integration. I know that sucks for all those F/Os from the 90s that never had a chance to fly, not S/O, but to actually fly a widebody all over the world. But, the day after the integration, they should not be able to bid ahead of any widebody lineholder at DAL regardless of our DOH.

Your SLI version would first have to put everyone in both companies in the highest paying equipment their seniority can hold, assuming everyone above them is holding the best they can. No offense, but at 14 months I'd say you'd still be an -88 FO.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Heyas Fins,

I don't think that will be as much of a kicker as you expect.

Nu

I wrote that it would be balanced and the effect canceled out. You read that as a "kicker?" I think the arbitrators will jump on the excuse balance and cancel these factors to simplify the result. JMHO

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Quite true. with 700 or so new hires the last two years, maybe just maybe the first few classes would be in a right seat of a 73N with a bid most senior position stance.
Fin you have time, run the numbers of 88 FO's system wide. It has to be less than 630 or so.

 

[NuGuy]

Your SLI version would first have to put everyone in both companies in the highest paying equipment their seniority can hold, assuming everyone above them is holding the best they can. No offense, but at 14 months I'd say you'd still be an -88 FO.

Heyas Nose,

I don't agree with you much, but this is on the mark.

In this particular case, the whole list would be re-figured to what you COULD hold, versus what you are holding, irrespective on how "crappy" or "good" the position is, which leads to the artificially junior positions (we have them too...DC-9 Captain reserve).

No bump no flush would let you keep your position, but there'd be a steady stream of people coming in on top.

Nu

 

[NuGuy]

I wrote that it would be balanced and the effect canceled out. You read that as a "kicker?" I think the arbitrators will jump on the excuse balance and cancel these factors to simplify the result. JMHO

Fins,

The two PWAs were essentially equal. Your's had W2 and ours had QoL and protections. There's nothing to balance.

Nu