DAL/NWA Combination....should regional guys be worried?

[Sedona16]

It seems the combinations being studied look to remove regional flying and use the combined mainline assets more efficiently. Some examples:​

E&FA Department Analysis January 2008

Merger Could Create Upgraded Mainline Flying with Hub Consolidation –

Indianapolis Review for CVG/DTW hubs

14 Departures from IND to CVG/DTW (7 RJs and 7 Mainline) averaging 77.5 seats per departure

(1,085/14) Could Be Replaced With 8 Departures averaging 135.6 seats per departure (all 8 to DTW)
Source: Official Airline Guide via BACK Aviation for Feb. 21, 2008 schedule; ALPA E&FA Analysis​

E&FA Department Analysis January 2008
​

Merger Could Create Upgraded Mainline Flying with Hub Consolidation –

Indianapolis Review for CVG/DTW hubs

6 :45 DC9 100 150 MD80/A320/B737-800 147.5
8:00 A320 148 148 MD80/A320/B737-800 147.5
10:00 CRJ 50 100 DC9 100.0
11:18 DC9 100 150 MD80/A320/B737-800 147.5
13:10 DC9 100 150 MD80/A320/B737-800 147.5
14:50 DC9 100 137 MD80/A320/B737-800 147.5
17:14 DC9 100 150 MD80/A320/B737-800 147.5
18:55 DC9 100 100 DC9 100.0
Total 798 1,085 1,085​

14 Departures from IND to CVG/DTW (7 RJs and 7 Mainline) averaging 77.5 seats per departure
(1,085/14) Could Be Replaced With 8 Departures averaging 135.6 seats per departure (all 8 to DTW)​

12 Departures from IND to ATL/MEM (7 RJs and 5 Mainline) averaging 93.3 seats per departure

(1,120/12) Could Be Replaced With 9 Departures averaging 124.4 seats per departure (all 9 to ATL)​

​

​

 

[Meiguy]

I think some regionals should be worried. 50 seaters just don't cut it anymore. If the only plane flown by your regional is 50 seaters and no long term contract is in place...well there could be some reduction there. Majors are looking to cutback on 50 seat flying and add mainline aircaft on some of those routes. It probably won't be overnight but you can bet the next time contracts are renegotiated it will look alot different.

 

[~~~^~~~]

MEI guy, the DC-9's don't cut it anymore either and they are much cheaper to park because they do not have large payments attached to them.

The majors are waiting for the dreamilner tech 737 sized jet powered by Pratt's GTF engine. Together the technology should provide a greater percentage fuel savings than the 787. In the mean time the E170/190 & 737 are seen as already obsolete. The majors prefer not to have to buy obsolete jets now while cash is tight & airlines like SkyWest and Republic have lots of cash with no great ideas about what to do with it.

This all suggests more outsourcing - if ALPA lets it happen and we all know the history of the matter.

The answer is One List within a brand's flying - so the airline can operate which ever airplane is most efficient and pilots are not winners and losers based on management's aircraft purchase decisions.

It is time to restore this profession through unity.

 

[tie1on]

who cares about the regional guys. they know what they got themselves into

 

[~~~^~~~]

Because "regional" is such an arbitrary construct.

Ten years ago would you have thought a CRJ900, or E170, was a "regional" jet?

These jets are flown by pilots. We need unity in our profession to stop the erosion of everything that isn't a widebody to "regional" operations.

 

[saabservant]

We got ourselves into an industry, a profession decimated by mainline selfish tools who decided to throw the junior guys under the bus to keep more for themselves. Thus the b scales, outsourcing to regionals, etc.

Why should I care about your pension? You know what you got yourself into...jerk.
Unless you are "friends and family" or a woman or minority, there is no other way to begin an airline career and build time.

We really do need to unify these groups within a brand, and it is time for our alpa leadership to lead the way on this...

 

[CFI2766]

who cares about the regional guys. they know what they got themselves into

You must be kidding. Right?

A$$.

 

[ExAF]

They Aren't

Because "regional" is such an arbitrary construct.

Ten years ago would you have thought a CRJ900, or E170, was a "regional" jet?

They aren't and therein lies the problem. Pilots as a group did it to ourselves through an erosion of scope. Now we are suffering the consequences.

 

[Meiguy]

MEI guy, the DC-9's don't cut it anymore either and they are much cheaper to park because they do not have large payments attached to them.

The majors are waiting for the dreamilner tech 737 sized jet powered by Pratt's GTF engine. Together the technology should provide a greater percentage fuel savings than the 787. In the mean time the E170/190 & 737 are seen as already obsolete. The majors prefer not to have to buy obsolete jets now while cash is tight & airlines like SkyWest and Republic have lots of cash with no great ideas about what to do with it.

This all suggests more outsourcing - if ALPA lets it happen and we all know the history of the matter.

The answer is One List within a brand's flying - so the airline can operate which ever airplane is most efficient and pilots are not winners and losers based on management's aircraft purchase decisions.

It is time to restore this profession through unity.

You may be right with the DC-9's. At Delta thogh they were saying how they would like to reduce the 50 seats and replace them with a hundred seat aircraft on some markets. Problem is like you said the 73 and 190/195's are almost outdated. Why would you want to go buy a new 195 if in 10 years Boeing will have the new composite 73 replacement you are looking for long term. That was the reasoning for the MD-90's from China. They are suppose to get a great lease rate under what RJ's are and use those to fill the 100 seat gap. It's not a hundred seats but with the right lease rate you don't have to fill it up to 120+ and still make money. They aren't perfect but will satisfy the goal for now if it works out. But I've heard multiple times how they would like to reduce the 50 seat rj.

 

[Sedona16]

In my opinion, wherever lawfully possible with gas prices so high look for the majors to pull back regional flying. I'm sure they are wondering about their decision to go pay per departure and cover gas costs when they read information like below. Also, that Skywest is netting $160,000,000 a year.

AP
SkyWest Profits Up on Limited Fuel Cost
Friday February 8, 8:26 am ET
SkyWest Posts Sharp Rise in 4th-Quater Profits With Higher Fuel Reimbursements From Partners

ST. GEORGE, Utah (AP) -- SkyWest Inc. said Friday its profit rose sharply in the fourth quarter as it passed surging fuel costs on to its partners and limited other expenses.\

The airline posted a 30.7 percent gain in net income, to $40.9 million, or 66 cents per share, from $31.2 million, or 48 cents per share. Revenue rose 8.3 percent to $854.7 million from $789.6 million.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected a profit of 64 cents per share, on average.

SkyWest, which operates regional flights for other carriers like Delta Air Lines Inc. and United Airlines, grew capacity 12.7 percent during the quarter. However, it flew emptier planes with less unit revenue as traffic did not keep up with that growth. SkyWest offset those declines by raising fuel-cost reimbursements, keeping its net unit fuel costs flat.

Overall unit costs fell 4.2 percent for every seat flown one mile during the quarter as SkyWest added 29 jets to its operations. The comparison was helped by severe weather during the fourth quarter of 2006, which limited SkyWest flights while incurring operating costs.

SkyWest posted a 9.2 percent rise in full-year profit, to $159.2 million, or $2.49 per share, from $145.8 million, or $2.30 per share, in 2006. Revenue rose 8.3 percent to $3.37 billion from $3.11 billion.

 

[Schiphol]

I would be.

Simple fact of the matter is that really expensive oil puts pressure on small gauge aircraft operators.

I think its an idiotic thing to say "they knew what they were getting themselves into". If you are not military...you have to get your hours and experience someplace.

Unity is good. Cheap oil is better.

 

[~~~^~~~]

There is a reason why Delta buys SkyWest's fuel... Because Delta gets a better deal.

Delta's thought is that if SkyWest bought their own fuel, they would pay more, then market it up for a profit, then sell it to Delta.

Delta is tangled up in some deals it wished it did not have, but merging probably does not allow it to break these contracts with SkyWest (for example, others exist).

These deals put pressure on Delta's 50 seaters at Comair.

At the same time rumors are Republic Airlines holdings is standing at the door with a pile of cash in exchange for expanded codeshare.

Unity is within our control. Oil isn't.

 

[Occam's Razor]

MEI guy, the DC-9's don't cut it anymore either and they are much cheaper to park because they do not have large payments attached to them.

Wow! Somebody had a big bowl of "Frosted Simplistic-O's" for breakfast this morning!

The only reason DC-9's are being parked is because they're hitting the cycle limit, not because they aren't economically viable. Your years as an airline marketing and finance genius appear to have been misspent.

This all suggests more outsourcing - if ALPA lets it happen and we all know the history of the matter.

What? That our ALPA brothers are willing to fly our aircraft for less? A poster boy for the logic behind WHY the mainlines didn't unilaterally cough up the $$ to get you Brand Scope ought to reconsider his view on protecting the brass ring.

The answer is One List within a brand's flying - so the airline can operate which ever airplane is most efficient and pilots are not winners and losers based on management's aircraft purchase decisions.

What are you willing to give up for it now?

Be specific!

If it's a 25% cut in your hourly rates for the next 5-years to pay for it, let me know.

You're spouting the airline equivalent of "No Child Left Behind" --> A great idea that nobody wants to fund.

Here's what you forget in the giddiness of your invite to The Show:

1. Management owns it right now.
2. It will cost $$$ (Note: That's THREE "$'s"...not just two!) to buy it from them.

It is time to restore this profession through unity.

The profession is restored through leverage, luck, and cooperation. If you'd have convinced your ideological brethren to pony-up the "cooperation" in 2000, you coulda saved money on your interview suit.

 

[A350]

Occam:

I thought DC-9's had no cycle limit?

A350

 

[John Pennekamp]

Wow! Somebody had a big bowl of "Frosted Simplistic-O's" for breakfast this morning!

The only reason DC-9's are being parked is because they're hitting the cycle limit, not because they aren't economically viable. Your years as an airline marketing and finance genius appear to have been misspent.



What? That our ALPA brothers are willing to fly our aircraft for less? A poster boy for the logic behind WHY the mainlines didn't unilaterally cough up the $$ to get you Brand Scope ought to reconsider his view on protecting the brass ring.



What are you willing to give up for it now?

Be specific!

If it's a 25% cut in your hourly rates for the next 5-years to pay for it, let me know.

You're spouting the airline equivalent of "No Child Left Behind" --> A great idea that nobody wants to fund.

Here's what you forget in the giddiness of your invite to The Show:

1. Management owns it right now.
2. It will cost $$$ (Note: That's THREE "$'s"...not just two!) to buy it from them.



The profession is restored through leverage, luck, and cooperation. If you'd have convinced your ideological brethren to pony-up the "cooperation" in 2000, you coulda saved money on your interview suit.

Wow! Somebody had a big bowl of frosted curmudgeon flakes this morning. Or someone pissed in his Wheaties.

Yeah, guess brand scope is a bad idea. Easy to say when you are the one with the power to change it, but aren't affected by it. After all, why should you fall on your sword for a bunch of sniveling "commuter" pilots.

 

[canadflyau]

I believe the DC-8 is the last a/c built with no cycle limit.

 

[Occam's Razor]

I thought DC-9's had no cycle limit?

104,000. The required heavy check to go past that number involves replacing the aft pressure bulkhead...which is spendy.

Technically, no limit. If you're willing to replace the components the way the government sez you have to...no cycle limit.

 

[800Dog]

Would most regional pilots be willing to accept a staple to the bottom of mainline's list?

 

[Occam's Razor]

Wow! Somebody had a big bowl of frosted curmudgeon flakes this morning. Or someone pissed in his Wheaties.

My apologies! I didn't mean to hurt your uterus.

Yeah, guess brand scope is a bad idea. Easy to say when you are the one with the power to change it, but aren't affected by it. After all, why should you fall on your sword for a bunch of sniveling "commuter" pilots.

Either read a history book...or back off!

My "power to change it" ebbed when the RJDC zygotes refused to consider compromise. I had it...but it required that "cooperation" thingy I mentioned in my post.

I offered to fall on my sword if they would be willing to fall on a knife.

They weren't.

So now I have to look over my shoulder at you, cuz you're willing to do my job for less money.

 

[Superpilot92]

thats exactly why the majors need to stop giving away flying to the regionals. if the planes stay at mainline then those pilots can set the pay rates instead of the regionals setting them.

 

[737 Pylt]

thats exactly why the majors need to stop giving away flying to the regionals. if the planes stay at mainline then those pilots can set the pay rates instead of the regionals setting them.

Agreed. The problem therein lies that now the regionals have "captured" so much flying they see it as mainline "stealing their flying." Problem is, it was once theirs anyway...........
So where do we compromise?


737

 

[~~~^~~~]

- sorry for the formatting - laptop issues....

Occam:

The references to parking the DC-9's and MD88's are straight from the Managers making the decisions. You can refer to the recordings of investor conference calls that are available online.

Bob McAdoo - Avondale Partners
When you talked about bringing on the last of your 76-seat airplanes and how they replaced the Avros and the DC-9s, when you get these in, what percent of the DC-9s will have been grounded? How many will you have left?
Tim Griffin
The total size of the DC-9 fleet is about 103 aircraft today. The size of the fleet by the end of next year when we have all of the 76-seaters in will be smaller than that. Given where fuel prices are, we are in the process of finalizing our 2008 capacity plan right now, so I'm not going to quote a final DC-9 fleet count number for 2008 on the call. But it will be smaller than the 103 that we have today.

Northwest’s 76-seat regional jet fleet also grew in the fourth quarter with the delivery of six Bombardier CRJ-900s and five EMB-175s, bringing the year's total to 13 CRJ-900s and nine EMB-175 airplanes. In the first quarter of 2008, Northwest plans to take delivery of six additional CRJ-900s and eight more EMB-175s. By the end of 2008, Northwest’s 76-seat regional jet fleet will have grown to 36 EMB-175s and 36 Bombardier CRJ-900s.

Northwest's 2008 flying plan also includes a reduction of its DC9 fleet over the course of the year, with the largest reduction coming during the peak summer travel months. By the end of 2008, Northwest intends to operate a year-end fleet of 68 DC9 aircraft. Although our DC9s are less fuel efficient than a newer generation aircraft like the 737-800, they have little or no ownership costs

David Davis
Yeah, I mean I quoted a number in the script that sort of showed what the RASM improvement was among our regional carriers and the results that we’re seeing so far with the introduction now of a little over 22 76-seaters, it’s been right in line with our expectation and it’s been very strong. So we’re confident that the continued roll out is something that we want to keep doing and keep doing at the pace that we’re planning for 2008.
Gary Chase - Lehman Brothers
Can there – there’s no read to - I think it was you that said it Dave, the DC9 utilization being down in the summer months, there’s no read into that other than the fleet replacement that you’re going through, right?
David Davis
I think what I said is that the DC9 fleet is ramping down in size and most of that ramp down happened post the summer months and there’s nothing really more to read into that than just the fleets getting smaller.

Ray Neidl - Calyon Securities
Yeah, just to clarify with the DC9 fleets' shrinking and you having the big jump with RJ usage. Is there some point you might back up against some restraints and just go up close restrictions with just your pilots?
Douglas Steenland
No.

Bob McAdoo - Avondale Partners
Yeah, just a couple quick things. On the 76-seat airplanes since you have both the CRJ900 and the E175, could you just give us any kind of color as to how you view the role of one versus the other and what you’re trying to do with one versus the other relative to the DC9s or just in general?
Douglas Steenland
I think, Bob, we view them as largely interchangeable. There are a lot of differences in terms of range, but our customer feedback so far has been very positive with respect to both airplanes and we don’t have specific categories as to the EMB flies this sort of type of market and the CRJ flies this type. They interchange back and forth and they’re doing great.

On the DAL side...

Glen W. Hauenstein
Good, thank you. We have a lot of flexibility and I think you’ve hit on the key items there. One is we’ve already taken most of our commuter carriers that are under contracts with minimum utilization requirements down to those minimums so that was our first [inaudible] and then of course if the economy continues to weaken we do have a lot of airplanes with very low ownership costs so we can change the utilization of the fleet and I’m not saying we necessarily ground airplanes but we certainly would fly less on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays which are historically the laggards in industry so we have a very good plan and we’ve been modeling this for quite a while now, back to October when we had the first indications of some kind of potential domestic or international softening. We’ve run through many different scenarios and feel very comfortable that we will be in a good position in any economic downturn.
Edward H. Bastian
Ray, the majority of the capacity we pulled out as you probably know is coming out of the regionals, not the mainline at this point.

So there you have it. NWA loves its RJ's and says it is not restricted by scope. Both airlines say that the DC-9/MD88 type have low ownership costs and can parked without incurring significant costs.

You take the old line that this has to be "bought." I disagree that unity has such a high price. Delta currently is in deals with RJ operators that are costing the Company money - flying that could be more efficiently performed at mainline.

The compromise is found through unity. When ALPA shows up the table with 12,000 pilots and says, we will be on One List as a condition of this merger.

What am I willing to pay for growth, furlough protection, my 4th mainline stripe and working for an airline that operates the most efficient aircraft in every market?

The price for not having unity is greater - more uncertainty, more outsourcing (particularly at NWA), more career stagnation.

 

[Occam's Razor]

Golly! A CEO and his minions says emergence from Chapter 11 will require a sacrifice for all...then later quietly raises his minion's pay.

You believe what?

You don't think unity has a price because you've never been required to pay it.

RE: "You take the old line that this has to be "bought." You would know with the contract NWA has now how much it cost to "buy" retirement for some of your pilots."

Dial your "Naive-O-Meter" back down to "4". Cost varies with leverage. The cost to put the toothpaste back in the tube has grown. It has grown to the point where it can't be borne by a pilot group (or groups) that has other issues on the plate. Issues like keeping your current mainline job something worth striving for.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Cost varies with leverage. The cost to put the toothpaste back in the tube has grown. It has grown to the point where it can't be borne by a pilot group (or groups) that has other issues on the plate. Issues like keeping your current mainline job something worth striving for.

That is laughable coming from a NWA pilot. Do you thank your First Officer every leg?

ALPA has been offered equity in the combined company if contract and seniority issues can be worked out ahead of time. It appears that unity is worth something to management also.

The same factors that make DAL/NWA syngergistic make Compass, Mesaba, and Comair even more appealing. SkyWest's profits come from somewhere - that money would be better served staying in house.

You can still be "superior" if that is your hang up. You'll be senior to me and I'll be doing the walk around.

Truthfully - the best way to restore this profession is to come together in unity. The reason our profession has collapsed is because we have outsourced flying and let the bar be set at the regional level.

 

[FDJ2]

-Both airlines say that the DC-9/MD88 type have low ownership costs and can parked without incurring significant costs.

I must have missed the part where he discussed parking MD-88s. Could you point to where Haustein mentions the MD-88s?

 

[Occam's Razor]

Perfect! A simple solution! The problem's complex...but YOU'VE stumbled across a simple (free) solution.

Here's my simple solution:

All DAL pilots hired within the last 5-years should take an immediate 50% cut for the remainder of their careers at DAL to pay for the "unity costs" of integrating all ASA, CMR, and Skywest pilots onto the list. (Psst! DOH, right?)

The junior DAL pilots are the group most vulnerable to the fact that there are RJ pilots willing to do their jobs for less...right?

So YOU pay it!

Now, sing the Unity Song!

 

[YourPilotFriend]

The wide variance in pay scales is actually the problem here, not scope relief. A 747 captain should not be making more than a DC-9 captain, when thinking in terms of productivity, workload, and skill set. Re-regulation is the only solution to this career slide , something that will not happen. We are going the way of the maritime industry.

 

[Occam's Razor]

Whoa!

You edit your post after I've replied?

Nice touch!

 

[Noserider76]

The fact still remains that the DL seniority list has gone from 10500 pilots down to around 7000 now in large part because of the shift in flying to the regionals. DL now doesn't fly anything smaller than the MD-88. NW appears headed in the same direction. It's a huge issue for those in the bottom half of the seniority list and if we can't fix it now we probably never will. I don't really care about a temporary bump from an equity payout. I care about the next 25-30 years in this career.

 

[Occam's Razor]

The wide variance in pay scales is actually the problem here, not scope relief. A 747 captain should not be making more than a DC-9 captain, when thinking in terms of productivity, workload, and skill set. Re-regulation is the only solution to this career slide , something that will not happen. We are going the way of the maritime industry.

"We" aren't going anywhere. I am in the profession, with changes ahead. You are not a professional pilot.

Back to your cubicle!