DAL/NWA Combination....should regional guys be worried?

[737 Pylt]

thats exactly why the majors need to stop giving away flying to the regionals. if the planes stay at mainline then those pilots can set the pay rates instead of the regionals setting them.

Agreed. The problem therein lies that now the regionals have "captured" so much flying they see it as mainline "stealing their flying." Problem is, it was once theirs anyway...........
So where do we compromise?


737

 

[~~~^~~~]

- sorry for the formatting - laptop issues....

Occam:

The references to parking the DC-9's and MD88's are straight from the Managers making the decisions. You can refer to the recordings of investor conference calls that are available online.

Bob McAdoo - Avondale Partners
When you talked about bringing on the last of your 76-seat airplanes and how they replaced the Avros and the DC-9s, when you get these in, what percent of the DC-9s will have been grounded? How many will you have left?
Tim Griffin
The total size of the DC-9 fleet is about 103 aircraft today. The size of the fleet by the end of next year when we have all of the 76-seaters in will be smaller than that. Given where fuel prices are, we are in the process of finalizing our 2008 capacity plan right now, so I'm not going to quote a final DC-9 fleet count number for 2008 on the call. But it will be smaller than the 103 that we have today.

Northwest’s 76-seat regional jet fleet also grew in the fourth quarter with the delivery of six Bombardier CRJ-900s and five EMB-175s, bringing the year's total to 13 CRJ-900s and nine EMB-175 airplanes. In the first quarter of 2008, Northwest plans to take delivery of six additional CRJ-900s and eight more EMB-175s. By the end of 2008, Northwest’s 76-seat regional jet fleet will have grown to 36 EMB-175s and 36 Bombardier CRJ-900s.

Northwest's 2008 flying plan also includes a reduction of its DC9 fleet over the course of the year, with the largest reduction coming during the peak summer travel months. By the end of 2008, Northwest intends to operate a year-end fleet of 68 DC9 aircraft. Although our DC9s are less fuel efficient than a newer generation aircraft like the 737-800, they have little or no ownership costs

David Davis
Yeah, I mean I quoted a number in the script that sort of showed what the RASM improvement was among our regional carriers and the results that we’re seeing so far with the introduction now of a little over 22 76-seaters, it’s been right in line with our expectation and it’s been very strong. So we’re confident that the continued roll out is something that we want to keep doing and keep doing at the pace that we’re planning for 2008.
Gary Chase - Lehman Brothers
Can there – there’s no read to - I think it was you that said it Dave, the DC9 utilization being down in the summer months, there’s no read into that other than the fleet replacement that you’re going through, right?
David Davis
I think what I said is that the DC9 fleet is ramping down in size and most of that ramp down happened post the summer months and there’s nothing really more to read into that than just the fleets getting smaller.

Ray Neidl - Calyon Securities
Yeah, just to clarify with the DC9 fleets' shrinking and you having the big jump with RJ usage. Is there some point you might back up against some restraints and just go up close restrictions with just your pilots?
Douglas Steenland
No.

Bob McAdoo - Avondale Partners
Yeah, just a couple quick things. On the 76-seat airplanes since you have both the CRJ900 and the E175, could you just give us any kind of color as to how you view the role of one versus the other and what you’re trying to do with one versus the other relative to the DC9s or just in general?
Douglas Steenland
I think, Bob, we view them as largely interchangeable. There are a lot of differences in terms of range, but our customer feedback so far has been very positive with respect to both airplanes and we don’t have specific categories as to the EMB flies this sort of type of market and the CRJ flies this type. They interchange back and forth and they’re doing great.

On the DAL side...

Glen W. Hauenstein
Good, thank you. We have a lot of flexibility and I think you’ve hit on the key items there. One is we’ve already taken most of our commuter carriers that are under contracts with minimum utilization requirements down to those minimums so that was our first [inaudible] and then of course if the economy continues to weaken we do have a lot of airplanes with very low ownership costs so we can change the utilization of the fleet and I’m not saying we necessarily ground airplanes but we certainly would fly less on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays which are historically the laggards in industry so we have a very good plan and we’ve been modeling this for quite a while now, back to October when we had the first indications of some kind of potential domestic or international softening. We’ve run through many different scenarios and feel very comfortable that we will be in a good position in any economic downturn.
Edward H. Bastian
Ray, the majority of the capacity we pulled out as you probably know is coming out of the regionals, not the mainline at this point.

So there you have it. NWA loves its RJ's and says it is not restricted by scope. Both airlines say that the DC-9/MD88 type have low ownership costs and can parked without incurring significant costs.

You take the old line that this has to be "bought." I disagree that unity has such a high price. Delta currently is in deals with RJ operators that are costing the Company money - flying that could be more efficiently performed at mainline.

The compromise is found through unity. When ALPA shows up the table with 12,000 pilots and says, we will be on One List as a condition of this merger.

What am I willing to pay for growth, furlough protection, my 4th mainline stripe and working for an airline that operates the most efficient aircraft in every market?

The price for not having unity is greater - more uncertainty, more outsourcing (particularly at NWA), more career stagnation.

 

[Occam's Razor]

Golly! A CEO and his minions says emergence from Chapter 11 will require a sacrifice for all...then later quietly raises his minion's pay.

You believe what?

You don't think unity has a price because you've never been required to pay it.

RE: "You take the old line that this has to be "bought." You would know with the contract NWA has now how much it cost to "buy" retirement for some of your pilots."

Dial your "Naive-O-Meter" back down to "4". Cost varies with leverage. The cost to put the toothpaste back in the tube has grown. It has grown to the point where it can't be borne by a pilot group (or groups) that has other issues on the plate. Issues like keeping your current mainline job something worth striving for.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Cost varies with leverage. The cost to put the toothpaste back in the tube has grown. It has grown to the point where it can't be borne by a pilot group (or groups) that has other issues on the plate. Issues like keeping your current mainline job something worth striving for.

That is laughable coming from a NWA pilot. Do you thank your First Officer every leg?

ALPA has been offered equity in the combined company if contract and seniority issues can be worked out ahead of time. It appears that unity is worth something to management also.

The same factors that make DAL/NWA syngergistic make Compass, Mesaba, and Comair even more appealing. SkyWest's profits come from somewhere - that money would be better served staying in house.

You can still be "superior" if that is your hang up. You'll be senior to me and I'll be doing the walk around.

Truthfully - the best way to restore this profession is to come together in unity. The reason our profession has collapsed is because we have outsourced flying and let the bar be set at the regional level.

 

[FDJ2]

-Both airlines say that the DC-9/MD88 type have low ownership costs and can parked without incurring significant costs.

I must have missed the part where he discussed parking MD-88s. Could you point to where Haustein mentions the MD-88s?

 

[Occam's Razor]

Perfect! A simple solution! The problem's complex...but YOU'VE stumbled across a simple (free) solution.

Here's my simple solution:

All DAL pilots hired within the last 5-years should take an immediate 50% cut for the remainder of their careers at DAL to pay for the "unity costs" of integrating all ASA, CMR, and Skywest pilots onto the list. (Psst! DOH, right?)

The junior DAL pilots are the group most vulnerable to the fact that there are RJ pilots willing to do their jobs for less...right?

So YOU pay it!

Now, sing the Unity Song!

 

[YourPilotFriend]

The wide variance in pay scales is actually the problem here, not scope relief. A 747 captain should not be making more than a DC-9 captain, when thinking in terms of productivity, workload, and skill set. Re-regulation is the only solution to this career slide , something that will not happen. We are going the way of the maritime industry.

 

[Occam's Razor]

Whoa!

You edit your post after I've replied?

Nice touch!

 

[Noserider76]

The fact still remains that the DL seniority list has gone from 10500 pilots down to around 7000 now in large part because of the shift in flying to the regionals. DL now doesn't fly anything smaller than the MD-88. NW appears headed in the same direction. It's a huge issue for those in the bottom half of the seniority list and if we can't fix it now we probably never will. I don't really care about a temporary bump from an equity payout. I care about the next 25-30 years in this career.

 

[Occam's Razor]

The wide variance in pay scales is actually the problem here, not scope relief. A 747 captain should not be making more than a DC-9 captain, when thinking in terms of productivity, workload, and skill set. Re-regulation is the only solution to this career slide , something that will not happen. We are going the way of the maritime industry.

"We" aren't going anywhere. I am in the profession, with changes ahead. You are not a professional pilot.

Back to your cubicle!

 

[~~~^~~~]

I must have missed the part where he discussed parking MD-88s. Could you point to where Haustein mentions the MD-88s?

In this last conference call he simply makes references to capacity being pulled out of aircraft with low ownership costs. It is common knowledge that Delta got good lease rates on the 88's in bankruptcy and still owns some of them. If you don't believe General Lee's prolific posts on the subject I can try to find a link to a Company source.

Decreased utilization would result in fewer pilots needed to staff the lower block hour plan.

Delta has several plans going forward so they have flexibility to respond to the price of fuel and market conditions.

If you need a source, I will have to find, or transcribe, Anderson's State of the Company talk that was web cast.

 

[~~~^~~~]

The fact still remains that the DL seniority list has gone from 10500 pilots down to around 7000 now in large part because of the shift in flying to the regionals. DL now doesn't fly anything smaller than the MD-88. NW appears headed in the same direction. It's a huge issue for those in the bottom half of the seniority list and if we can't fix it now we probably never will. I don't really care about a temporary bump from an equity payout. I care about the next 25-30 years in this career.

Exactly! Thank goodness somebody gets it.

 

[Sedona16]

If you need a source, I will have to find, or transcribe, Anderson's State of the Company talk that was web cast.

Looks like it is no longer playing in theaters....

http://www2.multicastmedia.com/demos/Delta/TownHall1.html

 

[~~~^~~~]

Well, I think the 88 holds its own better than the DC-9's. Delta's managers have described a three, or four stage plan.
1 - Pull down RJ flying to contractual minimums (already done)
2 - Reschedule 88's (being done to some extent)
3 - Shift 88 flying to 70/76 seaters in some markets at some times (being done to some extent) and move the rest of the fleet down 737's on 757 Caribbean and SA turns, MD88's on some 757, etc... (pretty typical fleet re-org with declining pax demand)
4 - More of option #3

With high fuel prices, 100 passengers on a 76 seat jet (pricing out the excess) works better than 100 passengers on a 142 seat jet.

If anyone remembers anything diffrent let me know.

 

[YourPilotFriend]

Hub-to-Hub regional flying will be eliminated in a merger. This has the most negative effect on comair and pinnacle. I would not expect mem and cvg to be regional hubs in a merger as well.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Well that could be a DC-9, or an RJ. We all just assume it will be an RJ, but the lease payments have to made on the RJ and the DC-9 is paid for.

Delta has re-affirmed it's commitment to CVG in the press.

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

This all suggests more outsourcing - if ALPA lets it happen and we all know the history of the matter.

The answer is One List within a brand's flying - so the airline can operate which ever airplane is most efficient and pilots are not winners and losers based on management's aircraft purchase decisions.

It is time to restore this profession through unity.

Or you could be like this guy and his RJ defense coalition cronies and sue for Date of hire.....buuuut I digress....

 

[Occam's Razor]

Exactly! Thank goodness somebody gets it.

*Chortle*

"Get's it"?

EVERYBODY "get's it"! A few of us (Hint: You) seem to believe it comes free, like egg rolls at Wok & Roll...or that the price to be paid for it should be borne by somebody other than you.

The benefit has never been in dispute. The fact that you and your (previous) brothers were willing to do our flying for less has never been in dispute.

The dispute has always been about who should pay the tab for buying it from management.

Some of us believed the cost should be borne by all parties. Your comrades in the RJDC thought the mainline guys should bear the total cost in the interest of "unity".

Because of that, our greatest opportunity to achieve Brand Scope died at the hands of Danny Boy and his band of nitwit victims.

 

[sweptback]

With high fuel prices, 100 passengers on a 76 seat jet (pricing out the excess) works better than 100 passengers on a 142 seat jet.

Didn't Delta try this whole grand plan with the 50-seat RJ expansion? You know, the Reid theory of more frequency and higher yields by leaving the low-paying buckets off the fares.

Too bad that didn't work.

 

[FDJ2]

In this last conference call he simply makes references to capacity being pulled out of aircraft with low ownership costs.

O.K., so you are speculating that it might be the 88s. Fair enough, however, I'd point out that the only aircraft DAL is currently parking are CRJ100/200s, and the majority of routes that have been pulled down lately have been RJ routes. Expect more of the same.