Dal ae

[Voice Of Reason]

This company cannot seasonally furlough. If we lose JAL I will admit that with this last bid they will finally be set up to furlough. Doing this bid sets us up very well to furlough and or go the other direction. I see where your pessimism stems from, really I do.

I get my optimism from a few places, namely timely information from those that make the decisions. I would have sworn we were going to furlough last Feb when we cut capacity the last time. The opted not too, not because they are nice guys, but because they just could not predict what the future would hold and could not guarantee that doing so would save them money.

This JAL deal has major implications for us.

"JAL turnaround plan eyes move to Delta group: report
...
ETIC wants JAL to tie up with Delta without receiving capital from the U.S. airline, the sources said.
In recent months, both Delta and American have been wooing cash-strapped JAL with competing offers of financial aid.
No Japanese airline is a member of the SkyTeam alliance, which has more routes connecting Japan and Asia than does the oneworld alliance. Japan's other big airline, All Nippon Airways Co., is a member of the Star Alliance grouping.
As JAL prepares to file for a court-backed bankruptcy, ETIC is also highly likely to have the company delisted from the stock market.
ETIC had been trying to find a way to avoid a delisting because a high number of individual investors own shares in the airline. It eventually decided on the delisting after judging it wouldn't be able to get JAL's key creditor banks to agree to a debt waiver.
Transport minister Seiji Maehara is set to meet Tuesday with top executives of the banks to try to seek their understanding about JAL filing for bankruptcy and their continued support for the airline.
Under the turnaround plan, JAL and Delta would file for antitrust immunity for Japan-U.S. routes under the open skies agreement the two nations recently signed, the sources said.
JAL aims to beef up international routes at Tokyo's Haneda airport, where a fourth runway due to open in October will increase the number of flights. It intends to open a Haneda-Los Angeles route in fiscal 2011 and connect JAL with routes of the SkyTeam alliance.
ETIC plans to decide on its bailout package for JAL as early as Jan. 19, at the same time it will have the airline file for court protection under the Corporate Rehabilitation Law.
"

So...how does thia latest info (above) bode for your junior DL pilots based on what you said (above)?

 

[General Lee]

So...how does thia latest info (above) bode for your junior DL pilots based on what you said (above)?

I would say pretty good for them. JAL wants to drop INTL routes (I read 26?) and we would probably pick some of them up. That means extra planes needed (could get them directly from JAL--either 773s or 744s possibly), and probably more pilots if that happened. I think a few SkyTeam members would try to "help" JAL with those routes that they want to shead---namely AF and KLM would "help" by replacing JAL on some Tokyo to Europe routes, and we could help by replacing them on some of their North America routes. One of the articles I read stated JAL wanted to concentrate on being a mainly domestic carrier in Japan.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Every time you fly with a Captain, ask them if they have ever been furloughed. Do the math, and figure out the chances of Delta hiring or furloughing over the next few years. History repeats itself. What do you think they are going to do with that 20% surplus of pilots next fall?

Most Captains also have had more than one marriage. I guess we are all in for a divorce shortly, eh? (Not me, my wife supports us $$$$$$$) History repeats itself......? And if we have 20% surplus pilots next Fall, I would assume they would do the same as this last Fall, lower ALVs and carry a surplus, because guess what? Spring and Summer are always right around the corner, and that is when this airline makes the most money.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I would not read too much in to the lack of us forking over money. That is a cultural way of not embarrassing AMR and saving face. The money will be used.

 

[Superpilot92]

This company cannot seasonally furlough. If we lose JAL I will admit that with this last bid they will finally be set up to furlough. Doing this bid sets us up very well to furlough and or go the other direction. I see where your pessimism stems from, really I do.

I get my optimism from a few places, namely timely information from those that make the decisions. I would have sworn we were going to furlough last Feb when we cut capacity the last time. The opted not too, not because they are nice guys, but because they just could not predict what the future would hold and could not guarantee that doing so would save them money.

This JAL deal has major implications for us. Don't get it, I will bet you are correct as we will not need a lot of the feed to the Asian gateway cities, but if we do get it, we will need more bodies to perform more flying. The stuff that is just waiting for the decision on this will change you tune if and when it becomes public. I for one want the deal to go though. It will mean long term sustainable growth and revenue in all four corners of the globe.

FWIW, here at DAL -S we have furoughees from 90-91 and 2000-2001. Twice DAL has furloughed. Most of the CA's above the bottom of the 73N were never furloughed. I get you point and the statistics you are using. We are big and have excess, but looking into 2011 and beyond there is demand For that reason, they cannot break even on it.

dont forget the training bubbles that are coming and the fact that by the end of 2010 we'll be 3 years into the age 65 rule change thus meaning we'll likely see even more attrition and training bubbles. We may not hire but I dont see a furlough coming anytime soon unless something huge happens.

We have more reasons not to furlough than to furlough. Saying otherwise is just the typical pessimistic airline pilot coming out.

IMHO they're will be hiring before we furlough. :beer:

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Agreed supper. There will be hiring before we furlough. It will just be more robust if we get the JAL deal done.

 

[twobits]

This all has a ring of 'ignorance is bliss'. General, see my previous post about how international routes will be conglomerated and it will make sense. JAL is bad for Delta pilots on the bottom of the list.

Just be prepared for it. ACL65PILOT - I hope you are right.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Two;
It is not whether I am right or not, what I am stating is what the plan is. A few things change and the plan changes.

From everything I am seeing the JAL deal is making many in high places very nervous. With it we as a group will prosper, without it, it probably will get ugly as we will need to do things we have no desire to do.

 

[catIIIc]

One world just upped their offer to $2 billion, they will give up without a fight. This whole deal will affect a lot of airlines.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/American-Airlines-British-prnews-4188353797.html?x=0&.v=1

 

[Noserider76]

One world just upped their offer to $2 billion, they will give up without a fight. This whole deal will affect a lot of airlines.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/American-Airlines-British-prnews-4188353797.html?x=0&.v=1

The biggest chunk of that looks to be coming from TPG. My opinion is that JAL and the government will want to steer well clear of any involvement with that group. Of course that AA press release doesn't mention TPG buts it's been written that 1.1 B is coming from them.