Colgan 3047 NEW

[patq1]

You don't have any facts, you just have wild speculation.

Actually you are wrong; I am speculating(not too wildly) based on the following facts as presented by the NTSB in their briefings. The gear was selected down and 20 seconds later the flaps were selected to 15. When they reached 10 the autopilot disconnected, the shaker, then the pusher activated. Then the pitch and roll gyrations began. The aircraft lost 800 feet in 5 seconds(9600 fpm) and had an airspeed of 100 knots. They did not say what the speed and power setting was before the gear was selected down.

Now here is my wild and crazy speculation based on the fact that the stick shaker and pusher activated:

The aircraft stalled.

 

[patq1]

Please tell us how lowering the flaps causes a stall. Funny, I thought flaps reduced stall speed.

If you lower the flaps and have an insufficient power setting, the airplane will slow and stall. In case you have forgotten, the flaps also increase drag. If the airplane is already slowing, the rate of deceleration will increase.

 

[PCL_128]

Damn, you're an ass. Three pilots, two flight attendants, all of their passengers, and a person on the ground are all dead. Show some fu--ing respect and let the investigators do their job before you drag the names of the crew through the mud some more.

 

[Avi8tor2000]

Actually you are wrong; I am speculating(not too wildly) based on the following facts as presented by the NTSB in their briefings. The gear was selected down and 20 seconds later the flaps were selected to 15. When they reached 10 the autopilot disconnected, the shaker, then the pusher activated. Then the pitch and roll gyrations began. The aircraft lost 800 feet in 5 seconds(9600 fpm) and had an airspeed of 100 knots. They did not say what the speed and power setting was before the gear was selected down.

Now here is my wild and crazy speculation based on the fact that the stick shaker and pusher activated:

The aircraft stalled.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/02/15/buffalo.plane.crash/index.html

"Offering more details, Chealander said Sunday that the plane's nose pitched up 31 degrees, then down 45 degrees. The aircraft rolled left 46 degrees then right 105 degrees, or past the 90-degree vertical point, he said."


While I agree the aircraft stalled, planes turning onto final simply just don't pitch up 31 degrees though. I'd be willing to bet most people who fly 121 ops have never seen 31 degrees pitch up on their airplanes. Something else happened other than just getting slow.

 

[patq1]

Damn, you're an ass. Three pilots, two flight attendants, all of their passengers, and a person on the ground are all dead. Show some fu--ing respect and let the investigators do their job before you drag the names of the crew through the mud some more.

You better hurry up and tell the people posting in the other 2 threads the same thing.

 

[LearLove]

WRT icing and the autopilot. It seems as though the media (and info from the FAA press conf.) are saying that the AP needs to be off ALL the time while in icing. From what I remember the PH for the Dash I had said to "periodically" disengage the AP to check for control masking due to icing.

Also (and I think T8 may have said this in another tread) there was a note in the Dash 8 manual that said to land flaps zero or 5 in heavy icing of freezing rain. I'd ref. the exact procedure but my Dash stuff is stored at my parents house back in PA.

can any current dash guys back this up?

 

[dmspilot00]

If you lower the flaps and have an insufficient power setting, the airplane will slow and stall. In case you have forgotten, the flaps also increase drag. If the airplane is already slowing, the rate of deceleration will increase.

I haven't forgotten, but the accident sequence happened so fast it doesn't seem like the aircraft would have had time to slow down...I would think the increase in lift and decrease in stall speed would have offset the increase in drag. I don't know what the cause was but you act like you know the cause beyond any doubt: simple wing stall, case closed. I think that is absurd and disrespectful to the crew and to the real investigators.

By the way the people in the other 2 threads haven't claimed to know the cause like you have, but have only given possible hypothetical scenarios and prefaced them as such.

 

[Alert height]

NOT backed up.

Colgan Q400 CFM only prohibits autopilot when in severe icing.

Colgan Q400 CFM makes no mention of occasional A/P disengagements.

No recommendation for flaps 0 or 5 when anding in icing conditions in Colgan CFM

Colgan CFM = Colgan Air Q400 Company Flight Manual, Rev1, 5/20/08

FAA Approved by Douglas Lundgren (POI)

 

[LowlyPropCapt]

Also (and I think T8 may have said this in another tread) there was a note in the Dash 8 manual that said to land flaps zero or 5 in heavy icing of freezing rain. I'd ref. the exact procedure but my Dash stuff is stored at my parents house back in PA.

can any current dash guys back this up?

Negative. No such recommendation that I am aware of unless it is really, really small print.

 

[belchfire]

Negative. No such recommendation that I am aware of unless it is really, really small print.

Mind you some of that really small print varies from outfit to outfit...

I am surprised no one I have read yet has listed airframe icing additives to the various flap position ref speeds.

 

[climbhappy]

i've been working all weekend...any truth to the report tha AP was on til impact?

 

[Minimaniac]

NTSB statistics indicate that about 75% of all aircraft accidents are attributed to pilot error.

FlightInfo's expert idiots seem to imply that 100% of these accidents are pilot error, and they themselves could have done better.

While I feel that many crash causes given by the NTSB are somewhat politicized and influenced by those with deep pockets, I think at very least we should wait until CVR and FDR transcripts are released before we being to assign blame, ESPECIALLY against our fellow aviators. Please stop trying to impress the rest of us with your expert analysis. There is more to this story, and only the facts will decide whether the crew was deficient in their reactions, or a victim of circumstance.

 

[realmanofgenius]

How could this crew be a victm of circumstance with two engines that produce ESHP of over 2000 each? is that correct?

I think that needs to be rephrased. is a pilot ever a victim of circumstance? maybe if he flies at Mmo in to a level 6.

 

[OurMoney1]

The media gets an "F" on this story.

What I have read indicates the AP was on leading up to the incident and disengaged during the event and subsequent loss of altitude. The NTSB has also stated the power was advanced to full.

Speculation temps fate, thats why I dont engage in it. God rest their souls and comfort their families.

 

[VF45]

If you cob the power with full nose up trim, will the Q400 pitch up?

 

[Minimaniac]

is a pilot ever a victim of circumstance?

A pilot who operates his aircraft within every known limitation, and in the best possible manner consistent with the training he recieved, yet still ends up in an accident, is in my eyes a victim of circumstance.

Perhaps there was simply too much ice for the airframe, even when the icing never approached severe. perhaps there was an unforeseen design flaw in the Q400 in terms of ice removal or ice accretion. Perhaps two fully trained pilots never were taught how to recognize icing beyond their aircraft's capabilities. Perhaps the FAA that approved the pilot's training since day 1, approved of the airline, approved of the airframe, approved of the airline training curriculum, approved of the dispatch methods, approved of the dispatchers, and approved of the weather into which this plane was dispatched.....maybe everyone thought they were doing things 100% right. To die while knowingly adhering to all rules, regulations, taught decision making processes, and ingrained common sense- that is how a pilot can become a victim of circumstance.

Time will tell who and/or what failed to protect these 50 lives. But sometimes, things called accidents do happen.

 

[-FlyAuburn-]

I think I remember in L-188 GS, the instructor said the L-188 was certified for flight in severe icing. But I never saw it in writing.

Once again, there are NO airplanes designed or approved to fly in severe icing. Severe ice is to be avoided at all costs, no matter what the airplane.

 

[-FlyAuburn-]

Also (and I think T8 may have said this in another tread) there was a note in the Dash 8 manual that said to land flaps zero or 5 in heavy icing of freezing rain.

Never flown the Dash 8 but I was wondering about this and expecting this to be the case. A better question is IF this is the case are Colgan pilots trained accordingly or has this been overlooked by their airline?

 

[LearLove]

Mind you some of that really small print varies from outfit to outfit...

I am surprised no one I have read yet has listed airframe icing additives to the various flap position ref speeds.

yeah not arguing but I should add that it may have been in ALG's book and not others. The reason I remember it is the one time I had to use it I was going into BUF. I remember it was winter 2002 just before I upgraded and I was flying with Davey M. We were on the ILS 5 and had the typical lakes light to mod. mix ice on the way in. about a mile from the marker we got rain but you could see it hit my (FO's) side windshield (unheated) and roll back a few inches and freeze. At that point we were flaps 5 and gear down. We noted the FZRA and decided to keep the speed up and stay in the current config to land. Not long after we landed the rest of the day was cx's due to everything on the airport being encased in a sheet of ice.

Anyway - not sure if it was in the PH or FOM or it was a ops notice but that is how I remember procedure.

 

[Thurman Merman]

I flew at Colgan for 5 years, the Q400 for my final year there. First off with the flaps, landing flaps are selected 15 or 35. A no flap landing is actually a non-normal procedure in the Quick Refernece Handbook. With a 0 flap landing, you must fly the approach and touchdown no less than 150 kias. The 400 is quite a bit longer than the previous 3 models. The reason for the flaps is the deck angle of the nose. With a 0 flap landing your touching down around 5-6 degrees nose up, you tail strike at 7 degrees. Also the Q400 has 5071 SHP per side(someone mentioned 2000).

Second, as for Icing, when in Icing conditions, there is a ice detect message that appears on the engine display. It blinks yellow until the increase ref speed switch is flipped on. This raises the floor on your airspeed so the landing bugs must be reset. In Icing, ref speed increase on, your bumping your bugged speed up 20 kias.

These are operational facts, I'm not going to theorize on the cause. I lost friends, the fo and I were based together and flew a lot with eachother. She was the copilot for my last flight at Colgan. The one thing I will say is that she was a hell of a pilot, good stick and rudder skills. It bothers me how they talk about lack of experience. She was one of our higher time FO's getting hired on to the Q400(1500+). And if I hear another media outlet hypothosize, "what if sully was on board," I'll throw my shoe through the TV.

And on the subject of experience, they want more, pay us what we're worth. I, and anybody who has flown in the North East corrider in thunderstorm or winter season definitly earn their pay and a whole lot more. In my opinion the company is getting a bargain for how much they pay crews. I am not taking anything away from Sully, but you want to see damned good pilots, sit on the jumpseat with some, Colgan, Commute Air, or Peidmont crews flying 4-6 legs a day in the junk with the mighty turboprops and you'll see some of the best, natural stick and rudder guys out there. Guys who have gone to fly jets after props will tell you their skills were never better than when flying the props.

I can already sense what direction this investigation is going. You bet the Company and Bombardier are championing whichever eliviates them of any responsibility. Always remember, "fate is the hunter."