ATA Financial Position

[ataopsdave]

To everybody who is involved with ATA:

What do you think will happen with the current financial position. Will they go under or stick around.

 

[Noam]

I would estimate, to the best of my novice ability, that unfortunately ATA may be in CH 11 by no later than the end of the winter. I think CH 7 is less likely but also unfortunately a possibility.

I just don't see how they can make it, even with massive employee concessions.

Hopefully I am totally wrong.

On a brigther note, maybe BK would actually be a good thing long-term and fix major problems...it is rare but some airlines do the BK thing successfully. Of course, it is going to hurt hard short-term.

What do you think ATAOPSDAVE?

 

[MDP727]

I think we've got about 10 months.

 

[ataopsdave]

I think we've got about 10 months.

Till CH 7 or 11?

 

[ataopsdave]

I would estimate, to the best of my novice ability, that unfortunately ATA may be in CH 11 by no later than the end of the winter. I think CH 7 is less likely but also unfortunately a possibility.

I just don't see how they can make it, even with massive employee concessions.

Hopefully I am totally wrong.

On a brigther note, maybe BK would actually be a good thing long-term and fix major problems...it is rare but some airlines do the BK thing successfully. Of course, it is going to hurt hard short-term.

What do you think ATAOPSDAVE?

I dont know what to think but GM has pulled it off in the past and he might do it again but I think it might involve some furloughs out there in addition to the ones already. On the other hand we keep making money at C8

 

[MDP727]

Until were gone.

 

[b737drivr]

I wish you all the best.

 

[Boeingman]

Any truth to the rumors CAL is looking at your 738"s? I heard this from one of your guys BTW.

 

[MDP727]

I don't put any stock in any rumors right now. As far as the finances the writings on the wall. We can't continue to lose money. Our cash on hand is limited. We still have a number of people in denial that believe our owner is hiding money.
In addition to someones post above, our owner does have a lot at stake here.
If any one can pull this off, he can. Were fortunate we don't have a former oil or telecom tycoon running the show. You know someone that gets to walk with a nice parachute regardless of the state of affairs. Then again our CEO could stay at the helm and go down with the ship along with all 7000 of us. The next year will be interesting. Either way life will go on for all of us.

 

[HarleyGuy]

'You still have the number for that truck driving school, Mav? I think I might need that...'

 

[Dart]

so ata will default on the loans? ifso....Do you think c8 will be on the chopping block? Just think....oil to high! tickets at a all time low! pilot pay cut! Oh Ya.. cash getting low! This sucks. I was hoping to be in a class sometime this year.....but I dont think it will happen. Good luck to all you ata and c8 guys! Ata is a great airline! lets hope they can pull out.

 

[ataopsdave]

so ata will default on the loans? ifso....Do you think c8 will be on the chopping block? Just think....oil to high! tickets at a all time low! pilot pay cut! Oh Ya.. cash getting low! This sucks. I was hoping to be in a class sometime this year.....but I dont think it will happen. Good luck to all you ata and c8 guys! Ata is a great airline! lets hope they can pull out.

I hope they pull through also Dart. If they do file CH 11 it might be good. Look how the smaller carriers do when they file. Good example are America West and Hawaiian. They have turned it completely around.

 

[Dart]

good point!! they kinda feel out of the spot light. hope it works for ata.

 

[lowecur]

Something to keep an eye on. If the ATSB requests immediate repayment because of default of the loan covenants, this may for all intents and purposes shut down the airline.

 

[On Your Six]

Expect political pressure from IL and IN Senators and Congresspeople to avoid that. Think of the number of jobs in their districts that would be in jeopardy....

 

[MW44]

"Expect political pressure from IL and IN Senators and Congresspeople to avoid that. Think of the number of jobs in their districts that would be in jeopardy"

Sure didn't help UAL very much. I don't think we should expect much help for airline pilots from this administration.

 

[mt2]

A few points:


1) We are in pretty deep chit. Operations are doing well but oil prices and tix prices are each in the wrong end of the spectrum for ATA and the entire industry. Our pockets are not that deep due to ATSB loan covenants. Ch 11 might be a good opportunity to fix some problems and re-organize our finances BUT will George take one for the team and do it?

2) George did a great job getting to where we are today but he is way over his head. He's gambled before and it worked out for ATA. He's a good cost cutter but little beyond that for a Company our size. Like Larry Risley at Mesa perhaps it's time he stepped aside and let a real pro run this thing. This time we need a real plan, a visionary plan, and some solid charasmatic leadership. I'm not sure George and his team have it in them.

3) Bankruptcy or not, buyout or not, you can bet your bottom dollar that George has insulated himself safely enough that he will do well post-ATA. I know he'd be better off if things turned out well with us but regardless he'll still be a wealthy man...just with less toys.

All that said I'm not nearly as pessemistic as some on these boards and at ATA. We still have a few cards left to play including selling assets. That's not the best course of action IMHO but it may buy time to help work things out. More pilot concessions are NOT likely so alternatives must be considered ASAP.

Prepared for the worst, hoping for the best.

 

[tz800ca]

Selling Assets

We still have a few cards left to play including selling assets.

You mean the yacht or yachts??? Yea right, when heck freezes over.

 

[balls deep340]

Curious does ATA have any assests? I noticed that the company market cap. is 36 million. Do they own any planes or are they all leased? Last question if they ch/11 do they have to have some cash on hand for when they come out? Good luck ATA.

 

[mt2]

Sell the boat, hell no !! I bid the boat...

I'm talking about Chico, Ambassadair, Key Tours, Travel Charter, the NYC tour operator, the INDY hangar, and dare I say the BetaCO assets (Lears, helicopters, etc). Then, OK, maybe the boat. But it is soooo valuable. Look where it got us with Boeing !!

 

[tz800ca]

Rats!

Sell the boat, hell no !! I bid the boat...

You beat me to it!

 

[capt. megadeth]

"Until were gone."

MDP727,
Chicago Express survived before being owned by ATA.

 

[MDP727]

We survived before c8 too. I was only referring to mainline. Not really sure were you guys could end up. I do however, know c8 is doing well and I'm proud of the relationship we've maintained with you guys.

 

[ataopsdave]

We survived before c8 too. I was only referring to mainline. Not really sure were you guys could end up. I do however, know c8 is doing well and I'm proud of the relationship we've maintained with you guys.

C8 is doing very good, at least that is what management says and I have alot of faith in them. I also like the relationship we have with our mainline. It is the only regional that I can think of where there is no anymosity.

 

[Boz]

I had an ATA Capt jumpseating the other day from SFO to ORD and after I asked how are things at ATA he was still talking about new aircraft coming to ATA such as the 717 from a previous order that fell through with another carrier.

Just curious and wanted to get a better idea from someone who is clearly in the know as to what is happening at ATA. It is amazing that I have yet to see anything in the papers or on TV regarding all this doom and gloom talk of CH.11 and Ch.7 talk.

If it is as bad as some of you have expressed on this board then I am quite surprised as to not hear more about this publicly and especially from current ATA employees.

All the same, wishing you all the best. Trust me I know how you feel.

 

[Noam]

I had an ATA Capt jumpseating the other day from SFO to ORD and after I asked how are things at ATA he was still talking about new aircraft coming to ATA such as the 717 from a previous order that fell through with another carrier.

Just curious and wanted to get a better idea from someone who is clearly in the know as to what is happening at ATA. It is amazing that I have yet to see anything in the papers or on TV regarding all this doom and gloom talk of CH.11 and Ch.7 talk.

If it is as bad as some of you have expressed on this board then I am quite surprised as to not hear more about this publicly and especially from current ATA employees.

All the same, wishing you all the best. Trust me I know how you feel.

Dear Mr. Boz,

Thanks for the wishes. Unfortunately though ATA seems be hurting fairly bad.

Why haven't you heard any negative press? Well, unfortunately it is rare to find any press about ATA in media, even last year when we were doing significantly better we were overlooked in papers such as The Wall Street Journal and USAToday.

Another reason is that our CEO has said that bankruptcy is not an option. Probably because he owns the majority of the stock and it would most likely become worthless if he did file CH 11. Also, I assume he is strongly opposed to giving up control of the company to a bankruptcy court judge.

The problem with this reasoning is that there are those that say bankruptcy should have been filed months ago, our CFO recently resigned for "personal reasons" but there are rumors that he advocated bankruptcy filing.

In the meantime, our unrestricted cash gets lower and lower and management is cutting the little things (such as blankets on flights, cutting back crew ground transportation to the parking lot at IND, etc.). It is rumor that management has come back to the union for more concessions (we just gave 6 weeks ago, although it was more of a freeze than anything else).

I don't think anyone will lease us any new aircraft. I have no good news to report.

 

[jettypeguy]

ATA is definitely in a big world of hurt right now. Besides the factors affecting all carriers like cheap tix prices and fuel, the single biggest thing hurting ATA is the 737 and 757-3 lease payments. The leases are some of the highest in the industry, the 737's are up to 10X more than some other major carriers. The problem was they were pre-911 and front-loaded. Well the bond restructing issue took care of some of the front loading and put the increase down the road a few years but all that did was buy time to build up unrestricted cash to pay for the leases and the ATSB payments. Well that has not happened and now another 10mil is gone from the unrestricted cash and the company is facing serious trouble with the ATSB covenants and the ability to sustain cash levels to open the doors for business in Jan 05' (read 10Q for more info) as well as the credit card companies now withholding 100% thus reducing another 20mil from the balance sheet. Something has to happen/change and continually taking pay concessions is not a business model to profitability. I can tell you for sure that the pilots will not give anymore as a lot of faith in managements ability to drive the ship, that combined with the fact we have heard little to no communication from them since the first signing of concessions (2 months ago), except "hey we need more money", no word on our new "Plan" or anything. It's going to be interesting to see what’s gonna happen...at this point it's anyone's guess...

 

[Boz]

Absolutley amazing how this cycle of destruction keeps going. I remember saying after 9/11 that it won't be until 2005 that things get back on track and I could not be more wrong.

It is certainly a different ballgame from the cyclical downturns in the past. It blows my mind as management keeps looking to employees to bail them out over and over. We could work for MESA great payscales and it appears that the airlines would still lose money.

All these execs get paid more than any of the pilots, yet they are never held accountable for there leadership. It is so frustrating to see management make decisions that front line employees can see have no merit or any business potential.

It is the summer high flying season and many companies load factors are in the high 80's yet with concessions, underfunded pensions, high fuel costs, and no real plan to succeed there are many airlines sharing a similar fate. I suppose only time will tell what fate lies ahead for each specific airline. All you can do is goto work and operate your flight safely and pray for better times.

 

[Noam]

Absolutley amazing how this cycle of destruction keeps going. I remember saying after 9/11 that it won't be until 2005 that things get back on track and I could not be more wrong.

It is certainly a different ballgame from the cyclical downturns in the past. It blows my mind as management keeps looking to employees to bail them out over and over. We could work for MESA great payscales and it appears that the airlines would still lose money.

All these execs get paid more than any of the pilots, yet they are never held accountable for there leadership. It is so frustrating to see management make decisions that front line employees can see have no merit or any business potential.

It is the summer high flying season and many companies load factors are in the high 80's yet with concessions, underfunded pensions, high fuel costs, and no real plan to succeed there are many airlines sharing a similar fate. I suppose only time will tell what fate lies ahead for each specific airline. All you can do is goto work and operate your flight safely and pray for better times.

I think you are absolutely correct. The only way to alleviate the problem of this cyclical industry is to re-regulate or nationalize the entire aviation system. However, I don't think it will happen in our current political climate. Unless you are part of a multi-national oil cartel, you aren't getting jack crap.