ATA Financial Position

[ataopsdave]

To everybody who is involved with ATA:

What do you think will happen with the current financial position. Will they go under or stick around.

 

[Noam]

I would estimate, to the best of my novice ability, that unfortunately ATA may be in CH 11 by no later than the end of the winter. I think CH 7 is less likely but also unfortunately a possibility.

I just don't see how they can make it, even with massive employee concessions.

Hopefully I am totally wrong.

On a brigther note, maybe BK would actually be a good thing long-term and fix major problems...it is rare but some airlines do the BK thing successfully. Of course, it is going to hurt hard short-term.

What do you think ATAOPSDAVE?

 

[MDP727]

I think we've got about 10 months.

 

[ataopsdave]

I think we've got about 10 months.

Till CH 7 or 11?

 

[ataopsdave]

I would estimate, to the best of my novice ability, that unfortunately ATA may be in CH 11 by no later than the end of the winter. I think CH 7 is less likely but also unfortunately a possibility.

I just don't see how they can make it, even with massive employee concessions.

Hopefully I am totally wrong.

On a brigther note, maybe BK would actually be a good thing long-term and fix major problems...it is rare but some airlines do the BK thing successfully. Of course, it is going to hurt hard short-term.

What do you think ATAOPSDAVE?

I dont know what to think but GM has pulled it off in the past and he might do it again but I think it might involve some furloughs out there in addition to the ones already. On the other hand we keep making money at C8

 

[MDP727]

Until were gone.

 

[b737drivr]

I wish you all the best.

 

[Boeingman]

Any truth to the rumors CAL is looking at your 738"s? I heard this from one of your guys BTW.

 

[MDP727]

I don't put any stock in any rumors right now. As far as the finances the writings on the wall. We can't continue to lose money. Our cash on hand is limited. We still have a number of people in denial that believe our owner is hiding money.
In addition to someones post above, our owner does have a lot at stake here.
If any one can pull this off, he can. Were fortunate we don't have a former oil or telecom tycoon running the show. You know someone that gets to walk with a nice parachute regardless of the state of affairs. Then again our CEO could stay at the helm and go down with the ship along with all 7000 of us. The next year will be interesting. Either way life will go on for all of us.

 

[HarleyGuy]

'You still have the number for that truck driving school, Mav? I think I might need that...'

 

[Dart]

so ata will default on the loans? ifso....Do you think c8 will be on the chopping block? Just think....oil to high! tickets at a all time low! pilot pay cut! Oh Ya.. cash getting low! This sucks. I was hoping to be in a class sometime this year.....but I dont think it will happen. Good luck to all you ata and c8 guys! Ata is a great airline! lets hope they can pull out.

 

[ataopsdave]

so ata will default on the loans? ifso....Do you think c8 will be on the chopping block? Just think....oil to high! tickets at a all time low! pilot pay cut! Oh Ya.. cash getting low! This sucks. I was hoping to be in a class sometime this year.....but I dont think it will happen. Good luck to all you ata and c8 guys! Ata is a great airline! lets hope they can pull out.

I hope they pull through also Dart. If they do file CH 11 it might be good. Look how the smaller carriers do when they file. Good example are America West and Hawaiian. They have turned it completely around.

 

[Dart]

good point!! they kinda feel out of the spot light. hope it works for ata.

 

[lowecur]

Something to keep an eye on. If the ATSB requests immediate repayment because of default of the loan covenants, this may for all intents and purposes shut down the airline.

 

[On Your Six]

Expect political pressure from IL and IN Senators and Congresspeople to avoid that. Think of the number of jobs in their districts that would be in jeopardy....

 

[MW44]

"Expect political pressure from IL and IN Senators and Congresspeople to avoid that. Think of the number of jobs in their districts that would be in jeopardy"

Sure didn't help UAL very much. I don't think we should expect much help for airline pilots from this administration.

 

[mt2]

A few points:


1) We are in pretty deep chit. Operations are doing well but oil prices and tix prices are each in the wrong end of the spectrum for ATA and the entire industry. Our pockets are not that deep due to ATSB loan covenants. Ch 11 might be a good opportunity to fix some problems and re-organize our finances BUT will George take one for the team and do it?

2) George did a great job getting to where we are today but he is way over his head. He's gambled before and it worked out for ATA. He's a good cost cutter but little beyond that for a Company our size. Like Larry Risley at Mesa perhaps it's time he stepped aside and let a real pro run this thing. This time we need a real plan, a visionary plan, and some solid charasmatic leadership. I'm not sure George and his team have it in them.

3) Bankruptcy or not, buyout or not, you can bet your bottom dollar that George has insulated himself safely enough that he will do well post-ATA. I know he'd be better off if things turned out well with us but regardless he'll still be a wealthy man...just with less toys.

All that said I'm not nearly as pessemistic as some on these boards and at ATA. We still have a few cards left to play including selling assets. That's not the best course of action IMHO but it may buy time to help work things out. More pilot concessions are NOT likely so alternatives must be considered ASAP.

Prepared for the worst, hoping for the best.

 

[tz800ca]

Selling Assets

We still have a few cards left to play including selling assets.

You mean the yacht or yachts??? Yea right, when heck freezes over.

 

[balls deep340]

Curious does ATA have any assests? I noticed that the company market cap. is 36 million. Do they own any planes or are they all leased? Last question if they ch/11 do they have to have some cash on hand for when they come out? Good luck ATA.

 

[mt2]

Sell the boat, hell no !! I bid the boat...

I'm talking about Chico, Ambassadair, Key Tours, Travel Charter, the NYC tour operator, the INDY hangar, and dare I say the BetaCO assets (Lears, helicopters, etc). Then, OK, maybe the boat. But it is soooo valuable. Look where it got us with Boeing !!