Anyone know of a list of retirements by year @ different airlines Yeah 65 just add 5

[waveflyer]

Don't know. Don't care.
Not the biggest factor I considered by a long shot.

But that's me.

 

[Herk Bubba]

Hey herk,
I'm confused about your numbers and catching up to this thread-
2013's over- your projection went from 359 years ago to just 62 that actually did it. So these aren't mandatory retirements, where did those AA numbers come from?

Once a year (normally Jan 1st or so) I post the mandatory retirements for the next 20 years at AA. I do it once a year so I can try to find trends ... Like: are the majority staying until 62 or 63...? Just using it as a barometer...

62 were mandatory in 2013
76 are mandatory in 2014

I didn't look at my previous posts... But if 2013 number was 359 years ago, then that means they retired early... Didn't stay until max retirement age.

Why did so many guys retire early? I think we had 500+ pilots bail in the 3 months leading up to our Ch 11 filing in Nov 2011... They all took the lump sum and ran. Those that stayed in past the filing lost their lump sum and the pension is frozen. Better than being dumped to the PBGC, but worse than being allowed to take the money and run.

Edit: no, does not include USAir pilots... And the info is straight from the company.

 

[bafanguy]

Herk,

Thanks for the info.

 

[doh]

http://www.imis100us1.com/uaa/CMDow...tItemKey=be396c36-79aa-40d6-b05b-0346aa516af1

Page 22 at the bottom.

 

[NuGuy]

Once a year (normally Jan 1st or so) I post the mandatory retirements for the next 20 years at AA. I do it once a year so I can try to find trends ... Like: are the majority staying until 62 or 63...? Just using it as a barometer...

62 were mandatory in 2013
76 are mandatory in 2014

I didn't look at my previous posts... But if 2013 number was 359 years ago, then that means they retired early... Didn't stay until max retirement age.

Why did so many guys retire early? I think we had 500+ pilots bail in the 3 months leading up to our Ch 11 filing in Nov 2011... They all took the lump sum and ran. Those that stayed in past the filing lost their lump sum and the pension is frozen. Better than being dumped to the PBGC, but worse than being allowed to take the money and run.

Edit: no, does not include USAir pilots... And the info is straight from the company.

I would add that you can't use the old statistics for guys going early for medical issues.

While you would think that going early for medical reasons would be fairly cut and dried, the reality is that it isn't.

Back in the day, say 1999, lets use the example of a 57 YO dude (or dudette). They had a medical issue that grounds them. They have 1800 hours of sick time saved up, plus LTD. They could easily coast to age 60 with practically no loss in pay, and still receive their full DB.

Even if they were younger, say 55, sick leave and LTD would probably take them to 58, then go to a medical retirement, with little or no penalty.

With those sets of financial circumstances, my guess is unless they had some kind of overriding personal desire to go back to work, they could just retire and be done with it. Depending on when they got hired and the nature of the DB plan, working extra may not even add to their accrued benefit.

Sure, they could try to get their medical back, but it was hardly the end of the world if they didn't, and so the effort expended was probably fairly modest. My guess is that's what accounted for rather large percentage of folks that didn't make it to 60.

These days, there is no DB plan to coast into, and as a result, people are far, far more aggressive in regaining their medicals. As a result, not only are the pilots who are working staying until 65, but a far larger percentage of those who would nominally have coasted off into the sunset, are coming back to work.

Nu

 

[jonjuan]

I would add that you can't use the old statistics for guys going early for medical issues.

While you would think that going early for medical reasons would be fairly cut and dried, the reality is that it isn't.

Back in the day, say 1999, lets use the example of a 57 YO dude (or dudette). They had a medical issue that grounds them. They have 1800 hours of sick time saved up, plus LTD. They could easily coast to age 60 with practically no loss in pay, and still receive their full DB.

Even if they were younger, say 55, sick leave and LTD would probably take them to 58, then go to a medical retirement, with little or no penalty.

With those sets of financial circumstances, my guess is unless they had some kind of overriding personal desire to go back to work, they could just retire and be done with it. Depending on when they got hired and the nature of the DB plan, working extra may not even add to their accrued benefit.

Sure, they could try to get their medical back, but it was hardly the end of the world if they didn't, and so the effort expended was probably fairly modest. My guess is that's what accounted for rather large percentage of folks that didn't make it to 60.

These days, there is no DB plan to coast into, and as a result, people are far, far more aggressive in regaining their medicals. As a result, not only are the pilots who are working staying until 65, but a far larger percentage of those who would nominally have coasted off into the sunset, are coming back to work.

Nu

To counter that a bit, the stock market has been on a tear lately with the S and P up over 30% in 2013. I know quote a few gummers who were over weighted in stocks and after the last couple of years of out sized returns are now much closer to pulling the trigger on retirement.

 

[bafanguy]

http://www.imis100us1.com/uaa/CMDow...tItemKey=be396c36-79aa-40d6-b05b-0346aa516af1

Page 22 at the bottom.

That report is a pretty good treatment of the subject. It's as close to academic analysis as I've seen.

 

[doh]

And yet, all those people are focused on increasing their revenues as a training facility. I only linked them because of the retirement graph. They have a dog in the fight.

 

[bafanguy]

And yet, all those people are focused on increasing their revenues as a training facility. I only linked them because of the retirement graph. They have a dog in the fight.

Yep, I sorta/kinda had the same feeling. I think the subject requires analysis by someone with absolutely no financial/political interest in seeing the findings go one way or another. This is practically impossible but the study you linked comes about as close as anything I've seen so far.

IIUC, the AABI represents lots of college av organizations ? If so, those facilities would be a bit more removed from profit motive than the strictly commercial enterprises ? The authors of the study are affiliated with universities (I don't know the financial arrangement of ERAU re profits).

Can't say I know that much about it but it's a pretty interesting subject...and seems to be relevant these days. It's a puzzle with many moving parts.

 

[Herk Bubba]

And here's to 2014, AA is hiring so now retiring pilots from the top while bringing in fresh blood on the bottom...


Projected Retirements for 2014 - 2034
(Projections based on active pilots turning 65 in the given year.)
Roster Data Updated on: 12/27/2013

Year Total
01/01/2014 - 12/31/2014 76
01/01/2015 - 12/31/2015 107
01/01/2016 - 12/31/2016 129
01/01/2017 - 12/31/2017 182
01/01/2018 - 12/31/2018 292
01/01/2019 - 12/31/2019 411
01/01/2020 - 12/31/2020 535
01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 580
01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 650
01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 696
01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 715
01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 719
01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 710
01/01/2027 - 12/31/2027 609
01/01/2028 - 12/31/2028 529
01/01/2029 - 12/31/2029 488
01/01/2030 - 12/31/2030 432
01/01/2031 - 12/31/2031 445
01/01/2032 - 12/31/2032 393
01/01/2033 - 12/31/2033 368
01/01/2034 - 12/31/2034 252

Happy 2015....

Legacy AA / doesn't include legacy US


Projected Retirements for 2015 - 2035
(Projections based on active pilots turning 65 in the given year.)
Roster Data Updated on: 12/26/2014

Year Total
01/02/2015 - 12/31/2015 99
01/01/2016 - 12/31/2016 119
01/01/2017 - 12/31/2017 167
01/01/2018 - 12/31/2018 282
01/01/2019 - 12/31/2019 388
01/01/2020 - 12/31/2020 528
01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 576
01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 649
01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 692
01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 717
01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 731
01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 710
01/01/2027 - 12/31/2027 617
01/01/2028 - 12/31/2028 537
01/01/2029 - 12/31/2029 498
01/01/2030 - 12/31/2030 447
01/01/2031 - 12/31/2031 464
01/01/2032 - 12/31/2032 416
01/01/2033 - 12/31/2033 392
01/01/2034 - 12/31/2034 289
01/01/2035 - 12/31/2035 212

 

[bafanguy]

Herk,

Thanks for the info. Any way you can get the official USAir data too ?

 

[nimtz]

To counter that a bit, the stock market has been on a tear lately with the S and P up over 30% in 2013. I know quote a few gummers who were over weighted in stocks and after the last couple of years of out sized returns are now much closer to pulling the trigger on retirement.

I have never seen this or A Fund payout percentage make a discernable difference. Most stay till 65. But remember they only needed two years to get back what those b@stards stole from them.

 

[Herk Bubba]

Herk,

Thanks for the info. Any way you can get the official USAir data too ?

Sorry, nope.

Will make my next post in about 359 days...

 

[bafanguy]

Sorry, nope.

Will make my next post in about 359 days...

Thanks.

 

[Herk Bubba]

Thanks.

You're welcome!

Projected Retirements for 2016 - 2036 (Legacy AA only)
(Projections based on active pilots turning 65 in the given year.)
Roster Data Updated on: 1/5/2016

Year Total
01/10/2016 - 12/31/2016 114
01/01/2017 - 12/31/2017 161
01/01/2018 - 12/31/2018 261
01/01/2019 - 12/31/2019 375
01/01/2020 - 12/31/2020 499
01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 572
01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 641
01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 691
01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 718
01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 732
01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 716
01/01/2027 - 12/31/2027 617
01/01/2028 - 12/31/2028 546
01/01/2029 - 12/31/2029 506
01/01/2030 - 12/31/2030 456
01/01/2031 - 12/31/2031 472
01/01/2032 - 12/31/2032 431
01/01/2033 - 12/31/2033 403
01/01/2034 - 12/31/2034 301
01/01/2035 - 12/31/2035 223
01/01/2036 - 12/31/2036 154