Anyone know of a list of retirements by year @ different airlines Yeah 65 just add 5

[ToThePain]

I don't think that it will be as bad as "just add 5." For example, guys will still be forced to retire for medical reasons, and the likelihood of someone having to retire medically in any given year will increase as one gets older. Further, I bet many guys will consider retiring when they hit the minimum social security retirement age of 62. That 2 year delay will help them with their monthly PBGC benefit as well if they have one coming to them. And of course, there will be some guys who just won't work that long, period.

I'm not trying to paint a rosy picture for hiring when this age 65 deal kicks in because the hiring situation will worsen I'm sure. And I also assume that any hope of a "pilot shortage" and wages coming up in response to that smaller supply will probably be dashed for a few years. But I bet age 65 slows hiring down for closer to 2-3 years vs. 5 years.

I believe that you are correct. Airlines that still have a lump sum will not be affected as much as the ones that do not have a lump sum. The new pension laws will seriously affect the amount paid out on those lump sums, diminishing returns each year. At worst I see some of the pilots here at CAL staying on till 62 when they can draw health care and leave. The majority of those pilots have been saving their sick time for a health coverage bridge for an age 60 retirements. Of the people that stay most will probably call out sick at least once a month causing the companies to continue hiring even if they aren't expanding.
CAL does have a pretty aggressive expansion plan (especially international) with lots of planes coming and is still understaffed. I don't have a crystal ball but would guess that hiring will continue.

Planes coming: 30 737 NGs for 2008 (retiring I believe 17 737-300's), 24 737NGs and 2-3 787s for 2009, and 10 737 NGs and 6 787s for 2009-2012.

Retirement numbers at CAL(total pilots@4897):
2008:193 ----2013:180---- 2018:186
2009:200 ----2014:197---- 2019:154
2010:190 ----2015:168---- 2020:155
2011:207 ----2016:191---- 2021:162
2012:211 ----2017:179---- 2022:164

 

[ToThePain]

I don't think that it will be as bad as "just add 5." For example, guys will still be forced to retire for medical reasons, and the likelihood of someone having to retire medically in any given year will increase as one gets older. Further, I bet many guys will consider retiring when they hit the minimum social security retirement age of 62. That 2 year delay will help them with their monthly PBGC benefit as well if they have one coming to them. And of course, there will be some guys who just won't work that long, period.

I'm not trying to paint a rosy picture for hiring when this age 65 deal kicks in because the hiring situation will worsen I'm sure. And I also assume that any hope of a "pilot shortage" and wages coming up in response to that smaller supply will probably be dashed for a few years. But I bet age 65 slows hiring down for closer to 2-3 years vs. 5 years.

I believe that you are correct. Airlines that still have a lump sum will not be affected as much as the ones that do not have a lump sum. The new pension laws will seriously affect the amount paid out on those lump sums, diminishing returns each year. At worst I see some of the pilots here at CAL staying on till 62 when they can draw health care and leave. The majority of those pilots have been saving their sick time for a health coverage bridge for an age 60 retirements. Of the people that stay most will probably call out sick at least once a month causing the companies to continue hiring even if they aren't expanding.
CAL does have a pretty aggressive expansion plan (especially international) with lots of planes coming and is still understaffed. I don't have a crystal ball but would guess that hiring will continue.

Planes coming: 30 737 NGs for 2008 (retiring I believe 17 737-300's), 24 737NGs and 2-3 787s for 2009, and 10 737 NGs and 6 787s for 2009-2012.

Retirement numbers at CAL(total pilots@4897):
2008:193 ----2013:180---- 2018:186
2009:200 ----2014:197---- 2019:154
2010:190 ----2015:168---- 2020:155
2011:207 ----2016:191---- 2021:162
2012:211 ----2017:179---- 2022:164

 

[igneousy2]

Alaska...1502 pilots

2007-61
2008-48
2009-43
2010-48
2011-52
2012-49
2013-47
2014-50
2015-55
2016-58
2017-59
2018-51
2019-58
2020-58
2021-52
2022-79
2023-56
2024-74
2025-51
2026-54
2027-67
2028-53
2029-64
2030-56
2031-50
2032-31
2033-16
2034-22
2035-10
2036-11
2037-8
2038-7
2039-3
2040-1

 

[hmmm]

Very Good Information

 

[Crzipilot]

Airways retirement numbers, East and West pilot groups. Of those that were active 3/1/06:

Yr. East West

08 143 46

09 185 47

10 163 52

11 191 44

12 214 65

13 220 51

14 231 71

15 206 69

16 185 68

17 159 66

18 162 85

19 112 78

20 113 88

21 73 90

22 57 94

23 18 77

24 10 92

25 1 94


Year 2025 equals 100% of US East pilots retired that were active on the seniority list as of 3/1/2006. After 2025 there are still 25% of the West list remaining, or about 500 pilots with the last one retireing in 2039.

Of the recent recalls to the east side, There will be a smattering increase of retirement numbers through the years. If everyone had accepted recall, the youngest pilot on the seniority list would have retired in 2035. Still 4 years before the youngest America West guy. Kinda of hard to pull the numbers out, but looking at the East retirements, including those on furloughed, the numbers look like this.

Yr East

08 177

09 232

10 194

11 246

12 267

13 283

14 289

15 289

16 292

17 255

18 261

19 209

20 222

21 168

22 165

23 148

24 118

25 97

26 103

27 109

28 69

29 68

30 62

31 47

32 27

33 15

34 4

35 4

 

[hmmm]

Does anyone have the retirement numbers for United like above.

How bout NWA and DL

 

[hmmm]

bump?

 

[ewarning]

Dal Numbers

200725993200860593320097058632010895774201113056442012155548920132185271201426450072015333467420164734201201755036512018521313020195192611202045121602021392176820222871481202326812132024254959202527268720262214662027142324202811920520297313220305775203142332032132

 

[aircowboy]

Nwa???

 

[Andy]

Based on the 7 July 06 seniority list; a total of 8655 pilots on the list
2006 141
2007 263
2008 234
2009 231
2010 201
2011 167
2012 228
2013 245
2014 237
2015 270
2016 331
2017 307
2018 381
2019 355
2020 463
2021 506
2022 506
2023 575
2024 574
2025 538
2026 560
2027 408
2028 300
2029 226
2030 153

Does not account for recalls who resigned.