Another Merger, Another Bankruptcy whens it gonna end!

[8sugarsugar]

"Yes, the legacies will have massive retirements, but won't hire to replace them. In 10 years time, you will see the legacies only flying widebody and all the narrow body flying being outsourced to the Skywests and pinnacles. Sure, there will be tons of hiring at those levels, but at low wages. RyanAir is already paying its 737-800 FO's about $27,000/year and mngt in USA is foaming at the mouth to declare bnkrupt and break the contracts.

after the AMR bankruptcy, you will see the beginning of the end. Contracts will get broken and Eagle will be flying A-320s in a couple years.

So Majors only flying wide body int'l? Qantas did the exact same thing, outsourced the narrow body, but now the Emirates' of the world are destroying Qantas. So damn...a canary in the coal mine for Major's?

So what do you do? What about UPS and FedEx? They have a lot of retirements too, but in 20 years you'll see pilotless cargo planes."

quote from "http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=145444"

 

[Varmint]

So Majors only flying wide body int'l? Qantas did the exact same thing, outsourced the narrow body, but now the Emirates' of the world are destroying Qantas. So damn...a canary in the coal mine for Major's?

So what do you do? What about UPS and FedEx? They have a lot of retirements too, but in 20 years you'll see pilotless cargo planes."

quote from "http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=145444"

I beg to differ on the Emirates' of the world destroying Qantas. Qantas destroyed itself because of shoddy management, possibly shoddy service onboard, bad timings of flights, or work stoppages that inconvenienced their customers to the extent that customers didn't trust the reliability of the airline anymore.

Emirates, Qatar, Etihad all offer above US average pay packages, better retirement savings, and a better product to the customer. All without the threat of a work stoppage. If you compare costs of tickets online you will see that most of the middle eastern carriers actually charge more for their tickets than their western counterparts. If you don't like the pay and working conditions over here you vote with your feet and take a hike. The same mentality should hold true at the unionized airlines in the US paying substandard wages to their employees. People still take jobs at those carriers....whose fault is that....the airlines? Those same low paying carriers in the US are the ones taking passengers away from the well paying airlines by charging LESS for their tickets, not more.

 

[Lear70]

No. I'm saying deregulation destroyed the career expectations of just about every employee group in the airline industry to allow for the general public to fly as fares naturally decreased with increasing competition.

The unexpected byproduct is that to compete, an airline will price a route at a loss to protect market share, to the point they are unprofitable, file bankrupty, void contracts, and start all over again.

I guarantee you that this scenario wasn't planned when deregulation was passed.

 

[SIG600]

I've yet to see anyone talk about the fact that the int'l carriers everyone is comparing US carriers too; are all backed by their gov'ts. Singapore, Qatari, Emirates, etc. Maybe if we just roll everyone up into one, and have uncle sam cover the costs.

 

[igneousy2]

No. I'm saying deregulation destroyed the career expectations of just about every employee group in the airline industry to allow for the general public to fly as fares naturally decreased with increasing competition.

The unexpected byproduct is that to compete, an airline will price a route at a loss to protect market share, to the point they are unprofitable, file bankrupty, void contracts, and start all over again.

I guarantee you that this scenario wasn't planned when deregulation was passed.

The airline industry is far larger now than it ever was or would have been under regulation. A large amount of jobs would not exist were it not for deregulation.

Besides, this argument is a waste of time...although in your view it has hurt the careers of pilots (and it did IF you happen to be one of the few to get the very few jobs out there) it has been highly successfully for the economy overall.

 

[Lear70]

Successful for the economy? Debatable, once the costs of multiple trips into bankruptcy court has been included.

Successful for the average consumer through severely depressed ticket prices? Certainly. The average ticket price is down nearly 60% compared to pre-deregulation prices, adjusted for inflation.

The average traveler may rejoice. I shall not, until incomes are restored back to 1960's -era income levels, adjusted for inflation.

YMMV

 

[redflyer65]

To Lear's point, I'd say most domestic airfares have stayed flat for how many years now?

The public doesn't really know what inflation is when talking about airline tickets. They still expect to pay 250-300 for transcon, and not a penny more.

 

[Fly-By-Cable]

Successful for the economy? Debatable, once the costs of multiple trips into bankruptcy court has been included.

Successful for the average consumer through severely depressed ticket prices? Certainly. The average ticket price is down nearly 60% compared to pre-deregulation prices, adjusted for inflation.

The average traveler may rejoice. I shall not, until incomes are restored back to 1960's -era income levels, adjusted for inflation.

YMMV

Ill add that the reason for such high payrates in the 60s was due to the pilot pay formula established in arbitration back in the 40s. As aircraft productivity went up, so did the pilots pay rate. When larger faster jets were introduced, naturally the pay sky rocketed.

 

[Lear70]

That explains the history, but doesn't address the reality that pilot pay has not kept pace with inflation, and I fully expect it to.

I love to fly, but I could have been an attorney or doctor and still done that on the side. I expected to be properly-compensated for it when I made the decision to become a professional pilot, according to what the pay scales were even in the 80's, and I still expect that.

If people can't understand pay raises never being LESS than inflation-adjusted wages of what they made in years past adjust for the value of the dollar, then maybe they deserve what they get. I don't need to strangle the golden goose, but getting back to where pilots were before their companies' 1113(c) filings and continuing to adjust yearly for inflation should not be thought of as an unreasonable goal.

 

[HalinTexas]

That explains the history, but doesn't address the reality that pilot pay has not kept pace with inflation, and I fully expect it to.

I love to fly, but I could have been an attorney or doctor and still done that on the side. I expected to be properly-compensated for it when I made the decision to become a professional pilot, according to what the pay scales were even in the 80's, and I still expect that.

If people can't understand pay raises never being LESS than inflation-adjusted wages of what they made in years past adjust for the value of the dollar, then maybe they deserve what they get. I don't need to strangle the golden goose, but getting back to where pilots were before their companies' 1113(c) filings and continuing to adjust yearly for inflation should not be thought of as an unreasonable goal.

Unless the market won't bear it. Doesn't matter what you think you're worth. If there isn't someone out there to pay it, you won't make it. Scarcity vs. intrinsic value, i.e. the value of something decreases if everyone has it, not matter how much that "something" costs to produce.

This is what those OWS students are finding out. Bless their hearts. Five years ago, their degree was probably worth something. Now it's not, because no one is hiring. Five years from now, it might again, be worth something. Kodak, real estate agents and computer chips are related, yet seemingly incongruous examples.