Another bid to buy Midwest Airlines?

[Lear70]

You're right about the MKE growth but, then again, MKE can't handle 50 or 60 737's and there might not be a cost-savings reason to put them up there.

Fences:

If they fence all the Midwest pilots into their existing seats for 5 years, then only AAI pilots would be elligible to upgrade.

Similarly, if they fence the Midwest pilots just to equipment only for 5 years, all the 737 upgrades would go to existing AAI pilots. HOWEVER, as AirTran 717 CA's left for the 737, it would open up 717 CA slots and theoretically the Midwest pilots would continue to have some upgrade flow, probably much greater than they already have which is attrition only (this is with some type of 1:4 or 1:5 seniority integration with this kind of seat lock, not DOH which wouldn't be fair any way you cut it).

This option might be the "most" fair, but I doubt the MEH MEC would agree to it, simply because it allows AAI pilots to upgrade at a much higher rate (which is the whole POINT, protecting what we had pre-acquisition without actually harming the MEH pilots' expected career path).

All that said, no one knows what the unions would work out or even if they COULD work anything out without it going to arbitration. The following is pure speculation, I don't have a crystal ball.

At the rate we're going, we might not see an acquisition actually happen until mid-summer, then the vote for NPA/ALPA (which will probably be NPA, simply because the Midwest ALPA CA pay rates are quite a bit lower than AirTran and we're almost 3 years into contract negotiations for higher rates), not to mention I don't know of a precedent that allows for a switch to another bargaining unit while retaining your original contract and all the work that's gone into negotiations...?

That would take us through the fall and, if the two groups can't come to an agreement on seniority integration and if UAir/AWA are any indication, it will take another year or two (or longer) to go to arbitration and come up with a final seniority award.

In the meantime, growth would continue at AirTran, and upgrades would go to existing AAI pilots. There would be no incentive to place the airplanes at Midwest because their senior pilots, being a lot higher on the longevity scale, cost a LOT more than a 3-year F/O upgrading, even on their existing contract, and it's all about the money.

Only time will tell... but the first part is the way fences can protect upgrades.

 

[mnboyev]

Ahh... the ATL boys will never want to venture up to the great white north.... No grits and country ham... If a deal is cut.. the fences will be so high nobody could jump over em for years....fact is... very few would be senior enough to head up ice fishin anyway. I seem to recall a certain red tail - green tail merger in MSP back in 87..... Dont worry folks.... nothin to fret about.. Get ready....

NWA's management over at bldg A is probably drumin up the stock with idle talk.. they are a bunch of pussies.. always been too conservative.. fu'd the Continental deal.. let Midway slip away.. cant hook up with Delta.. fighting with employees.. cant get new jets to remove themselves from the aging fleet...so the story goes on and on.... bla bla bla.... nothing different.. NWA builds up MKE then tears it down...its all been done before.

The only real winners here are Timmy and the Goldman boys !! Big dough bulging out of their pockets after its all said and done. The employees of MidEx and AirTran get to work at the salt mine a few more years... lord I hope age 60 doesnt get extended.. 18 yrs till 60.. thats plenty.

Now... how bout that Ol swill ? Actually.. I prefer Leinies 7.49 a 12 pak...

 

[mnboyev]

Lear... dont fret man.. did you call the NPA office with your ideas ?... get involved... They could use your energy over at the union hall. Hopefully the BOD meeting is going well. I hope AP bought em some beers and offered up some cheese curds.... Maybe the MidEx fellas brought down some of them good chocolate chip cookies !

 

[Lear70]

Lear... dont fret man.. did you call the NPA office with your ideas ?... get involved... They could use your energy over at the union hall. Hopefully the BOD meeting is going well. I hope AP bought em some beers and offered up some cheese curds.... Maybe the MidEx fellas brought down some of them good chocolate chip cookies !

LOL - they might have, if not I'd bake 'em some.

Yes, I actually called and left a message with the girl that runs the office and on AP's voicemail offering a few quick thoughts and volunteering my time for the M&A committee that would be formed.

Haven't heard back.

I emailed our P2P Chair and the F/O rep as well, at least our P2P Chair got back with me and basically agreed with me that it wasn't going to be anything that happened overnight and affirmed that they were meeting yesterday in ATL with the MEH boys.

I'm recovering from a nasty sinus infection I've been battling since the week after Thanksgiving with little success, doc grounded me for at least a week so I couldn't get down for the BoD meeting (which sucks, would like to have been there), but hopefully we'll get a P2P update on it shortly.

Maybe I'll get personally invited to the next one with my warm cookie offer...

 

[c9skytrain]

I flew their MEC and one other from ATL to DCA. (report in with ALPA?). Of course I pranged the ldg. Nice guys, did not say much about it (not that I expected them to). I told why I was not hip on it, and he laughed and said it seems 90% of the AAI fos are in the same boat.

 

[FlyWolf]

Something must be going on that we the public don't know, MEH stock is at $13 now.

I see AAI stock up, does that mean the deal is dead and the investors not worried about the shares getting diluted by the merger anymore?

 

[homerjdispatch]

SKW?!?!? They have TONS 'O CASH!!!

 

[pilotmyf]

SKW?!?!? They have TONS 'O CASH!!!

Even a dispatcher weighed in on this subject

 

[FlyWolf]

SKW?!?!? They have TONS 'O CASH!!!

You know, this is the third time I hear that, are we getting bought by Skywest? Do you dispatch for Midex?

 

[homerjdispatch]

You know, this is the third time I hear that, are we getting bought by Skywest? Do you dispatch for Midex?

No, SkyWest.

 

[Lear70]

And now for something COMPLETELY different:

http://www.glumbert.com/media/spiders

Just something to de-stress those of us who are a little keyed up about this whole deal.

Enjoy.

 

[Flydaplane]

Watch where you're swinging that fence. There are about the 80-100 pilots that would have upgraded in 5 years at Midwest had there been no merger. 7-10 retirements per year + any from fleet expansion this year with the 80's they're trying to get (at least 10 captains) + any from the airplane order they've stated they will make this year. Estimates are around twenty planes (with options for more), 11 to replace the 80's and another 8-9 for expansion. At 5-6 pilots per plane + retirements + new 80's that would be around 90 pilots. That is more than 25% of our pilots. Remember, most of these guys have been waiting 7-10 years, probably far longer than most Airtran guys.

Now for a management analysis. I posted this somewhere else but can't seem to find it.
Midwest management scares me because they are so conservative and scared to do anything. Their conservativeness has kept the airline afloat, but left it extremely vulnerable. The 50 seat RJ plan is just plane (mispelled with a subtle attempt at humor) stupid.
Airtran's management scares me also. Why didn't they go public with their offer last year (05) when they first tried to acquire Midwest? They could have gobbled them up for $5-10 bucks a share, hell the stock hit $1.10 last October (05). Instead they waited a year and Midwest rebounded. So now their offering $345 million 13.25 a share? If they would have been more balsy last year and gone public with a 6.00 per share offer (over 500% of current stock price) there's no way MEH could have turned it down. My advice to Joe, buy LOW, sell HIGH.

 

[Lear70]

You want to fence all the MEH guys for 5 years and that would be fair...to who yourself?

Yes, myself and about 700 or so AirTran F/O's who hired on here FULLY EXPECTING a 2-3 year upgrade with FIRM ORDERS.

Not some imaginary, "maybe we're going to possibly think about analyzing an aircraft order", but firm, "these aircraft are coming here on THIS delivery schedule" aircraft.

There are about the 80-100 pilots that would have upgraded in 5 years at Midwest had there been no merger.

Ummmm... from what? Wishful thinking?

7-10 retirements per year

That's reasonable enough.

+ any from fleet expansion this year with the 80's they're trying to get (at least 10 captains)

Doesn't count. Unless they're firm orders, they cannot have ANY place in a rational integration discussion based on career expectations.

+ any from the airplane order they've stated they will make this year. Estimates are around twenty planes (with options for more), 11 to replace the 80's and another 8-9 for expansion.

Again, you cannot count "we hope to maybe order these" scenarios. HOW long has MEH been saying that?

At 5-6 pilots per plane + retirements + new 80's that would be around 90 pilots. That is more than 25% of our pilots. Remember, most of these guys have been waiting 7-10 years, probably far longer than most Airtran guys.

If you had those aircraft on firm order, I wouldn't disagree with you, but...

You don't.

So again, any MEANINGFUL, REALISTIC seniority integration discussions MUST include the COLD HARD FACTS of Midwest pilot's EXPECTED CAREER PROGRESSION WITH EXISTING AIRCRAFT AND ORDERS as compared to an AirTran pilot's expected career progression with existing aircraft and orders.

Again, EXISTING HARD FACTS versus management wishful thinking to pacify pilot groups and investors.

Anything else would not be a fair analysis.

 

[Flydaplane]

You sure seem to think you know what is going on at Midwest. In fact you seem to think you know everything about seniority integration and how it should work. As long as it benefits you yourself the most!
FYI, the 2-80's were announced before the Airtran buyout =+10 captains, in fact so was a replacement fleet for the 80 (although they still haven't made a decision on a/c and financing) . This wasn't done to pacify the pilots groups or the investors, it was done to grow the airline through expansion and more a/c and save $ on fuel and mx.

[/QUYes, myself and about 700 or so AirTran F/O's who hired on here FULLY EXPECTING a 2-3 year upgrade with FIRM ORDERS.
OTE]

Let me get this straight, every one of the 700 FO's at Airtran was hired knowing he'd upgrade in 2-3 years?
So, since Airtran converted "options" for 24 a/c in April of 2006, your not counting those in your upgrade plans? Or do those count? Does that mean all 700 FO's were hired after April of 2006? Or just a few of them? Well? Which is it?

 

[Lear70]

You sure seem to think you know what is going on at Midwest. In fact you seem to think you know everything about seniority integration and how it should work. As long as it benefits you yourself the most!

Just as you seem to know exactly how and when Midwest is going to order aircraft.

Talk about the pot calling the kettle black, you're obviously after what's best for you and yours. Don't call me biased, and I won't call you hypocritical, how's that?

FYI, the 2-80's were announced before the Airtran buyout =+10 captains, in fact so was a replacement fleet for the 80 (although they still haven't made a decision on a/c and financing).

Do you have the press release for the orders? Can you quote the 13k filing with the SEC regarding aircraft addition and fleet expansion?

If not, then again, you're counting your chickens before they've hatched.

This wasn't done to pacify the pilots groups or the investors, it was done to grow the airline through expansion and more a/c and save $ on fuel and mx.

Mmm-hmmm.... suuurrrrre. Then why wasn't it done last year? Or the year before that? Or....

Let me get this straight, every one of the 700 FO's at Airtran was hired knowing he'd upgrade in 2-3 years?

Everyone who's now an F/O?

Nope, not then. But we do NOW. NOW is what matters, and is EXACTLY what an Arbitrator will look at (and I predict if this acquisition goes through, this WILL go to arbitration).

So, since Airtran converted "options" for 24 a/c in April of 2006, your not counting those in your upgrade plans? Or do those count? Does that mean all 700 FO's were hired after April of 2006? Or just a few of them? Well? Which is it?

You imply a disparity where none exists.

EVERY SINGLE EXERCISED DELIVERY with AirTran and how many current AirTran F/O's would upgrade under the EXISTING DELIVERY SCHEDULE is what matters when determining an AirTran F/O's career expectations.

No, I'm not an expert, but I'm obviously better-versed on the subject than you are.

If you'd been paying ANY attention to what I've said over the last month, I've argued for a FAIR AND EQUITABLE INTEGRATION that preserves BOTH pilot group's CURRENT EXPECTED CAREER TRACKS.

No arbitrator in his right mind would look at Midwest's growth history over the last decade combined with a few comments about possible aircraft acquisition and try to paint it in the same light as AirTran's scheduled growth.

For you to try to do so is asinine.

We're growing. You're not. 'Nuff said.

 

[Ty Webb]

Flydaplane:

Everybody at AirTran, at least those that I've talked to- and I talk to a lot- has been talking about a fair and reasonable integration. Your posts on the subject seem to stray from fact, in an attempt to better your own bargaining position. . . . I don't think that's a very smart tactic to take. I'm willing to bet if you stick to facts, you will get a better deal from a fairly negotiated arrangement with our pilot group than what an Arbitrator would give you after looking over the situation.

Consider the following:

I've been at AirTran for 5 years. The upgrade has varied during that time only between 2 years and 3 years. During that time, our seniority list has gone from 640 to almost 1500. Our delivery schedule of 14 aircraft in 2007 would mean 84 pilots would upgrade, plus we have about a dozen retirements . . . in other words, roughly 100 of our FO's were guaranteed an upgrade this year based upon firm orders and mandatory retirements.

You had 2 airplanes coming (12 CA) and some retirements, I would guess . . . so that would be the starting point to measure from, not from speculating on some "possible fleet replacement".

Don't forget that as they phase out your inefficient MD80's, our present FO's will be stuck waiting for your Captains to transition, which is galling enough. Don't rock the boat further, or you might end up all wet.

 

[Murphy]

http://investor.airtran.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=64267&p=irol-IRHome

 

[Taildragon]

Anyone else tired of this windbag, lear70? I for one am!

 

[runwayjockey]

Anyone else tired of this windbag, lear70? I for one am!

You know they made ignore lists for guys like this.

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

Anyone else tired of this windbag, lear70? I for one am!

NOOO!!!!!!!!!!