An oil crash???

[jetflyer]

DOES BUFFET BELIEVE IN PEAK OIL??
Just check the assets of Berkshire Hathaway. In the past 2 years they have bought:

- Natural gas reservoirs in China
- A gas pipeline from the west coast to Omaha
- A (gas fired) electricity plant in Omaha

Now he's investing very heavily in Nuclear Power. Could Warren Buffet save America?


http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/22/news/fortune500/buffett_energy/index.htm


Buffett may up investment in energy
Report: Berkshire sees more opportunities in the utilities industry, including nuclear power.
June 22, 2005: 5:54 AM EDT


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is willing to invest more money in the U.S. energy sector than the $10 billion to $15 billion previously discussed, according to The Wall Street Journal Wednesday.

At a conference of utility commissioners from Western states, Warren Buffett said he would invest in power-transmission lines and undertake other efforts to improve electricity reliability after the PacifiCorp deal closes, according to the report.

Berkshire (Research) plans to buy U.S. utility PacifiCorp from Britain's Scottish Power PLC for $5.1 billion, the paper said.

But according to the Journal, Buffett said he sees more opportunities in the utilities industry, including nuclear power.

"We'll put every dime into the business that is needed -- and it'll need a lot," he said.

"The bigger, the better," he said. "It's better to do a $10 billion deal than 10 $1 billion deals."

In the near future America is going to have to make TRANSPORTATION FUELS FROM COAL and Natural Gas.

We need to build up the electrical grid via NUCLEAR POWER, so that we can use the coal and natural gas for our gas guzzlers

Buffet is making a very smart bet, with Nuclear.

I better hurry wife will be home in about 30 mins
Vacation bound,
Jet

 

[Mugs]

Boone Pickens responds to a question during an interview in New York, Monday June 20, 2005. Pickens has made more money in the past five years than he did in the preceeding half century by betting that oil and natural gas prices would rise (AP Photo/Richard Drew) RICHARD DREW
June 22, 2005 2:23 PM EDT
NEW YORK - Oil tycoon Boone Pickens' bet that energy prices would rise made him more money in the past five years than he earned in the preceding half century hunting for riches in petroleum deposits and companies.

And even as crude futures have doubled since 2000 to almost $60 a barrel, the 77-year-old Texan sees no reason to take his chips off the table. "I can't tell for sure where we're going, other than up," Pickens said in an interview with The Associated Press.

His outlook stems from the belief that a world oil production peak is near and that, while the world won't soon run out, supplies will remain tight due to rising consumption and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. The high prices haven't yet taken the wind out of the U.S. economy, he said, because of efficiency gains made over the past 25 years. Down the road, however, he anticipates more serious pain at the pump until, eventually, fossil fuel consumption tapers off and alternatives become more popular.

Coming from just about anyone else, those comments could be dismissed as a routine oil-price prediction. But the matter-of-fact views of Pickens carry more weight than the average analyst's hunch.

Pickens started his career in the 1950s as a petroleum geologist, built his reputation in the following decades as the founder of Mesa Petroleum Co. and enshrined himself in the history books in the 1980s with attempts to take over major oil companies.

But Pickens' star faded in the 1990s, when he lost control of the debt-ridden Mesa and his bullishness on natural gas prices, while prescient in hindsight, turned out to be a costly mistake. "I was ahead of my time once again," quipped Pickens, who also likes to point out that "you can be dead right - and dead."

Now, Pickens is riding high again as the chairman of BP Capital Management, a billion-dollar hedge fund focused on energy commodities and equities that has delivered mammoth gains.

BP Capital manages roughly $2.5 billion in assets, which are split approximately three ways between the equity fund, the commodity fund and Picken's personal wealth, according to chief financial officer Dick Grant. An investor who contributed $1 million to the commodity fund at its inception in 1999 has seen a return of $28 million, while an investor who put $1 million in the equity fund at its inception in 2001 would now have $3.7 million.

"I've never had so much fun in my life," said Pickens, who depends on at least a dozen experts in everything from geopolitics to weather, while leaving the day-to-day execution of BP Capital's trades to a 29-year-old New Yorker named Michael Ross.

Pickens does not believe the current tightness in the oil market will be resolved by a surge in supply, and he sees $50 a barrel as a price floor. When he does the arithmetic - the world will consume more than 30 billion barrels of oil in 2005 - Pickens is convinced that OPEC and the rest of the petroleum industry will never again be able to build a sufficient supply surplus to give the market a psychological cushion. Even if the world can produce more - Saudi Arabia claims to have reserves of 250 billion barrels - limited refining capacity will continue to be a problem, he said.

At the moment, the world's excess production capacity is about 1.5 million barrels per day, or less than 2 percent of total global consumption. That has traders extremely nervous about the possibility of hurricanes, terrorist attacks and labor strife in key oil production regions.

Only one thing could undermine his position as a market bull: a sharp drop in energy use, either from an economic recession or because skyrocketing prices get people to think twice about taking a long drive. Pickens believes the United States and other industrialized nations are in for a rude awakening within the next year as oil producers struggle to keep up with growing demand in the United States, China and India.

"You're going to hit a brick wall is what's going to happen," said Pickens, who foresees oil prices above $60 a barrel oil and gasoline at $3 a gallon.

Longer term, he expects very high prices to change consumers' habits. Already, he said, "you're coming to the end of the SUVs as far as being center stage."

Although he is philosophically opposed to government intervention in business, as a practical matter he said higher taxes on gasoline, and incentives for fuel-efficient cars and wind power may be necessary to smooth out the transition to the post-petroleum era.

He is not eager to open the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling, though not for the usual reasons.

"Leave it for another generation," he said.

 

[jetflyer]

Nice find Mugs.

Scary but that's the way I see it. The World is going to get a big shock this next year. BIG SHOCK. There's gonna be a lot of fear like the 70's all over again. But that was just a warmup. This will be the real thing.

Wife let me on for a second and now she's getting mad. I promised not to get on here till early July. WHY DID I PROMISE THAT!!??
back to vacation,
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Non-reving in 3 hrs to the beach. Woke up before my wife. FOUND THIS GREAT BIT of News at the CURRENT EVENTS section of www.peakoil.com

This news could be one that has the potential for a TECHNO-FIX to all our OIL PROBLEMS!! I kid you not. This needs to be FUNDED WITH BILLIONS TODAY. This seems to be something akin to COLD FUSION as far as energy potential.

If we could implement this power source all over the U.S. we could use all existing COAL AND NATURAL GAS reserves for TRANSPORTATION FUELS. (coal can be liquified).

Then people could afford to drive to work, oil prices wouldn't skyrocket, our airlines wouldn't all file CH 11, etc.

Here is the article:
http://www.zpenergy.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=1357


New Science and a Revolutionary Energy Breakthrough
Posted on Thursday, June 16, 2005 @ 21:38:06 PDT by vlad
[url="http://www.zpenergy.com/images/topics/gene.gif"]http://www.zpenergy.com/images/topics/gene.gif[/url]Overtone writes: By Mark Goldes, Chairman & CEO, Magnetic Power Inc.

New science is opening the way to fuel-free power and propulsion and a turnaround of Global Warming. Conventional wisdom suggests we will be dependent on oil, gas, coal and nuclear power for the foreseeable future. Alternative energy is thought to be limited to solar, wind, fuel-cells and biofuels, etc. However, a revolutionary family of energy conversion technologies has emerged that is likely to prove extremely important. This breakthrough requires no fuel and produces no pollution. It opens a path to cost competitive electric power, automotive, and later aerospace propulsion.


Scientists have long been aware that the earth is immersed in an extremely dense sea of energy, which permeates every nook and cranny of the universe. It is only recently that it was realized that this huge reservoir could be an available source of usable energy. With some notable exceptions, e.g. Paul Dirac, we have been, like fish, unaware of the ocean.

Science employs a variety of names to describe this new field: space energy, vacuum energy, dark energy, the quantum vacuum, and Zero Point Energy (ZPE). Until about twenty years ago, scientists did not consider it possible to tap for practical use. Mathematics had suggested that great quantities of energy while theoretically present, could not be released in meaningful amounts.

Nikola Tesla, the genius who gave birth to alternating current, said in a talk to electrical engineers in 1891: "Ere many generations pass, our machinery will be driven by a power obtainable at any point in the universe. …Throughout space there is energy.”

The late Dr. Robert Forward, a physicist at Hughes Aircraft Corporation, published a seminal paper in Physical Review, in 1984, suggesting that ZPE could be tapped for the direct generation of electricity. Two years later the United States Air Force sought proposals for the utilization of ZPE for power and propulsion in a Small Business Innovation Research solicitation. Since that time other physicists have published papers suggesting that there is nothing to preclude the conversion of ZPE as a source of energy for power and propulsion.

Aviation Week and Space Technology, in the March 1st, 2004 issue, published an article headlined: “Aviation Giants Eye Zero Point Energy”. The following line reads: “Zero Point Energy emerges from the realm of science fiction, may be key to deep space travel”. The article goes on to suggest that “ZPE power plants might result in Mach 4 fighters, quiet 1,200 seat hypersonic airliners that fly at 100 mile altitudes as far as 12,000 miles in about 70 minutes, and 12.6 hour trips to the Moon”. The article reports that at least two major aerospace firms, and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, are studying ZPE.

NASA data suggests that far more than 20 times the solar energy available, at the peak of a sunny day, can be extracted from the Zero Point Field per unit of surface area on earth – in excess of 20 kilowatts per square meter, around the clock, seven days per week.

Dr. Fabrizio Pinto, formerly a physicist with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, has obtained U.S. Patents entitled: “Method for Energy Extraction”. He states: “ZPE is expected to exhibit infinite density and to be universally present, and might therefore be a limitless source of energy.” His firm seeks to convert ZPE by means of the Casimir Force, a physical manifestation of ZPE discovered in 1947. Lucent’s Bell laboratories announced, in 2001, that it successfully harnessed the Casimir Force to operate a miniature teeter-totter useful in advanced computer chips.

ZPE can also be extracted magnetically. Nobel physicist Werner Heisenberg is quoted as stating that we “could utilize magnetism as an energy source”. Hans Coler, a German inventor supported by Hitler’s Navy, according to a long since declassified British Intelligence Report that has been posted on the web, succeeded in building a working 6 kilowatt, solid-state, magnetic "space energy receiver”. This remarkable generator was destroyed by an Allied bomb in 1945. At the time, there was no comprehension as to the source of the energy. Coler wrote: “These fundamental researches…have made the first real and large breach in the citadel of present scientific belief.”

Prototype Zero Point Energy extraction devices have been constructed in numerous laboratories, throughout the world, during the past two decades. Our own firm has a team of outstanding engineers developing pre-commercial generators. One kilowatt Magnetic Power Modules™ are expected to be in production next year by a Strategic Partner, aimed at the market for portable generators, as well as homes. Modules can be combined for greater power output, in a manner analogous to solar cells. Compact automotive power systems, as well as megawatt modules, appear to be feasible. A large firm has expressed interest in small battery replacements powering laptop computers. Demonstration devices and toys are currently being developed to illustrate the feasibility of practical designs.

Although still not widely known, increasing numbers of scientists and engineers are working with this truly revolutionary energy technology. This fact heralds the beginning of a profound transition, leading beyond dependence on oil, gas, coal, uranium, and other fuels. Great numbers of new jobs will emerge, as will a major stimulus to the world economy. Energy independence is likely to be realized by all countries, large and small, rich and poor. Reversing air pollution, and slowing of global warming, is inherent in the achievement. To the surprise of many, this is likely to be a near-term event.

© 2004-5 Magnetic Power Inc. All Rights Reserved.

LET'S HOPE THIS TURNS OUT TO BE AS GREAT AS I THINK IT MIGHT BE. Now I can go on vacation thinking the world won't end while I'm drinking those Coronas on the beach

Good luck to the World,
Jet

 

[klhoard]

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Wow, where can I send my money? Will you take a direct money transfer from my 401(k) and B-Fund???.
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I knew all of the PEAK OIL B.S. was leading to an "investment opportunity". . . .
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I'm calling the Mythbusters. . . .
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[jetflyer]

Oil Prices surpassed $67.00 today.

I'd say the article that began this thread, saying OIL prices would CRASH to the low $40s was wrong.

The article that began this thread also said oil prices would average around $44.00 next year. HMMMM. The futures market is predicting oil prices will be around $65.00 for the next five years.

I know for a fact the futures market is even wrong and that oil will be around $200/barrel within 5 years.

The laws of SUPPLY/DEMAND are going to prevail when the supply begins to diminish very quickly in the next 2-3 years.

Excess capacity is gone. The world is going to be using 2 million barrels per day more than it produces in the 4th quarter.

Oil prices might go up to $100.00 before this year ends and we're not even at PEAK YET. They will most definitely go above $75 atleast.

Peak Oil is going to go down in the history books as a great changing point for our world. Doesn't this suck? Why couldn't life just have been easy!

Jet

 

[blzr]

I'm sure all the aliens at area 51 have long since figured out ZPE and are now working on unraveling the mystical force that ALWAYS makes one of my socks disappear in the dryer.

 

[B6Driver]

jetflyer,

Should have said IMHO.........................
No one knows and this person is no difference.

 

[bugchaser]

Hey Jetflyer, maybe you can loan us all some money after you make your fortune in the oil futures market. If you know its going up then why not leverage everything you own to get in the market. There is a large fortune to be made.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

There will be an oil price "crash" (or a steady and slow decline down to a pretty much permanent low cost). This will occur when we replace oil as the major transportation fuel for autos, trucks, planes, trains and ships.

In the meantime, oil prices will continue to fluctuate, with a constant cost increase. The price of oil, just like the supply of oil, will slowly peak, and then decline permanently.

As we are seeing with Katrina, supply disruptions will cause temporary havoc with the prices. The loss of production in the Gulf is about 1.4m barrels. The total world excess production today is about 2.5m barrels, so Katrina took out about 40% of excess worldwide production.

Cliff
GRB