AMR/LCC Merger and Furlough Question...

[kj6991]

I'm starting class soon with US Airways. I know it's a gamble, as with anything I guess. I'm leaving a Captain seat at a good regional to go, mind you I have plenty of TPIC. I know this is a vague question with a million different opinions, but if the merger happens, is furlough right off the bat a real possibility?

 

[The Drizzle]

I'm starting class soon with US Airways. I know it's a gamble, as with anything I guess. I'm leaving a Captain seat at a good regional to go, mind you I have plenty of TPIC. I know this is a vague question with a million different opinions, but if the merger happens, is furlough right off the bat a real possibility?

Sure.

 

[The Drizzle]

I'm starting class soon with US Airways. I know it's a gamble, as with anything I guess. I'm leaving a Captain seat at a good regional to go, mind you I have plenty of TPIC. I know this is a vague question with a million different opinions, but if the merger happens, is furlough right off the bat a real possibility?

Nope.

 

[The Drizzle]

That should just about cover it.

 

[The Drizzle]

Realtalk: take your first legacy job prepared for and expecting your first furlough.



********************, make that two furloughs just in case.

 

[General Lee]

I'm starting class soon with US Airways. I know it's a gamble, as with anything I guess. I'm leaving a Captain seat at a good regional to go, mind you I have plenty of TPIC. I know this is a vague question with a million different opinions, but if the merger happens, is furlough right off the bat a real possibility?

I think it could happen, but we all know that USAir East has a bunch of old guys ready to retire, and they will in droves. If the merger happens, and you were hired after the announcement, then you would be placed by an arbitrator at the bottom of the list, which means you could get furloughed first. Of course, the US Easties would have to agree to arbitration this time without crossing their fingers..... Regardless, I think you are in a good spot. Getting in at the BEGINNING of a hiring wave. There will be retirements, if a merger happens you are in a good spot (hired before any newhires on the AA side), and the beginning of a wave. WELL DONE. Now just get through the eventual joint contract and raise, and the SLI that may be contentious. If you can do that, you will be set.

As far as being furloughed, if there is a lot of hub overlap, then they could do that. But, I don't see a lot of hubs that are close other than JFK (AA) and PHL (US), even though both are large cities that can support themselves, and PHL is more of a domestic hub compared to the INTL airport of JFK. Still, I don't see much downsizing (maybe PHX a bit due to the loss of headquarters to DFW if it happens), and the huge amount of retirements on both sides in the next few years would put you in a good spot. I think it was a good move.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[reepicheep]

I would think the main furlough concern would be if there's not a merger.

 

[Daddy]

I don't know what you're situation is, but if you think that you as a newhire will go ahead of all those furloughed AMR pilots, you might want to reconsider. I would EXPECT a furlough if i were you. Mergers rarely result in a net gain of jobs. The SWA newhires got bent over pretty hard in the merger with airtran. Thats a tough one though with all the retirements coming.

 

[V1rowt8]

Short term at AMR/USAIR merged company, quit regional flying an RJ,get to fly an RJ at a major in the right seat for a lot less and less seniority.. bummer. Long term, eventualy, hopefully you will make more at the new AMR if they merge than you ever would at the regional you were at, depending on how old you are.

 

[filejw]

I don't know what you're situation is, but if you think that you as a newhire will go ahead of all those furloughed AMR pilots, you might want to reconsider. I would EXPECT a furlough if i were you. Mergers rarely result in a net gain of jobs. The SWA newhires got bent over pretty hard in the merger with airtran. Thats a tough one though with all the retirements coming.

After 4 mergers I would say that people on furlough generally make out poorly compared to folks that are working.

 

[sean67]

I don't know what you're situation is, but if you think that you as a newhire will go ahead of all those furloughed AMR pilots, you might want to reconsider. I would EXPECT a furlough if i were you. Mergers rarely result in a net gain of jobs. The SWA newhires got bent over pretty hard in the merger with airtran. Thats a tough one though with all the retirements coming.

True, but SWA does not have the retire attrition that AA/US has.

 

[Data]

Have any furloughs ever gone on top of any active pilot in a merger?

 

[General Lee]

Have any furloughs ever gone on top of any active pilot in a merger?

No. But if you are on voluntary furlough or haven't come back from furlough on your own, and somebody below you has come back, he will not be placed in front of you on the list. Nobody can hopscotch above you on your own list.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

I don't know what you're situation is, but if you think that you as a newhire will go ahead of all those furloughed AMR pilots, you might want to reconsider. I would EXPECT a furlough if i were you. Mergers rarely result in a net gain of jobs. The SWA newhires got bent over pretty hard in the merger with airtran. Thats a tough one though with all the retirements coming.

Huh? Expect a furlough? If there is major overlap of hubs and big hubs have to close due to closeness, and there are no upcoming retirments, then MAYBE. I see huge retirements on both the USAir East and AA side.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[27 driver]

I don't know what you're situation is, but if you think that you as a newhire will go ahead of all those furloughed AMR pilots, you might want to reconsider. I would EXPECT a furlough if i were you. Mergers rarely result in a net gain of jobs. The SWA newhires got bent over pretty hard in the merger with airtran. Thats a tough one though with all the retirements coming.

Please explain how the new hires got bent over. You are talking about guys that weren't even on property when the merger was announced.

 

[ackattacker]

In this case the General is right. There are no guarantees in this industry but the coming retirement wave is MASSIVE and overall in the U.S. load factors are high so there's little reason to cut capacity, even if there is some overlap in routes. Risk of furlough appears remote and I wouldn't let that factor into your decision. In fact the job security at the regionals is much more shaky in the long run than at any major due to the constant threat of whipsaw.

 

[Flyby1206]

Will being in bankruptcy hurt current AA pilots in the eyes of a seniority list arbitration?

 

[General Lee]

Please explain how the new hires got bent over. You are talking about guys that weren't even on property when the merger was announced.

Exactly. Even in arbitration, everyone hired after the merger announcement gets stapled.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[JumpersAway]

I'd take a furlough with a smile on my face- that wouldn't bother me a bit! As long as I had the seniority number, I'd be fine with that. Hey- I'd just go find a job driving a forklift around a liquor warehouse or something...................

 

[CavePilot]

As a regional pilot you have to decide if you want to keep getting kicked around at the regionals OR start getting kicked around at the majors.

Congrats...you made the right choice.

 

[weasel_lips]

I'm starting class soon with US Airways. I know it's a gamble, as with anything I guess. I'm leaving a Captain seat at a good regional to go, mind you I have plenty of TPIC. I know this is a vague question with a million different opinions, but if the merger happens, is furlough right off the bat a real possibility?

First of all there is no such thing as a good regional. Even US East in its current (temporary) state is 1,000 times better. You will like it here despite what all the morons (none of which actually work at the US east side) will tell you on this disinformation board.

Of all times to get hired this is the lowest chance of furlough in history. If you are going to leave the regional now is the time to do it.

AMR/US have little overlap. Huge retirement wave just getting started now. (You could not have better timing). A new contract at US is going to result in a lot of hiring on its own. (more vacation for one). The new rest rules will result in more hiring as well. If there is no merger, you are fine too. We are at min fleet and block hours, so there will be no more shrinking.

I don't believe the last big mergers resulted in furloughs. (DAL/NWA, UAL/CAL, SWA/AIRTRAN) And that will be the case here as well.

You have made a good move, congratulations, enjoy it, and don't look back.

 

[The Drizzle]

What he said. I left a senior, well enough paid regional captain position to come here. If I eat a furlough, I'll do so without regret.

 

[Bringupthebird]

Even US East in its current (temporary) state is 1,000 times better.

Temporary. 7 years is temporary? It's about 20% of the average pilots career.

You will like it here despite what all the morons (none of which actually work at the US east side) will tell you on this disinformation board.

Unless a Southwest pilot buys a rental property next to your house and comes over to chat.

Of all times to get hired this is the lowest chance of furlough in history.That is the same thing that most furloughed pilots heard when they hired on. Except that the one telling them that didn't have furlough/downbid protection.

If you are going to leave the regional now is the time to do it.

Or when the dust settles on the merger. If the boom is as big as they claim, what's the harm in waiting. If it's not...

AMR/US have little overlap. Huge retirement wave just getting started now. (You could not have better timing).

What magic wand does Doug Parker have to generate profits that Horton didn't have? Oh, yeah, losing the fleet minimums in the current TA and a permanent injunction against it's most divisive labor group.

A new contract at US is going to result in a lot of hiring on its own. (more vacation for one). The new rest rules will result in more hiring as well. If there is no merger, you are fine too. We are at min fleet and block hours, so there will be no more shrinking.

USAPA will need to get a contract with PArker if there is no merger. The biggest chip they have to bargain with is elimination of any protections in exchange for conspiring to use DOH.

I don't believe the last big mergers resulted in furloughs. (DAL/NWA, UAL/CAL, SWA/AIRTRAN) And that will be the case here as well.

When were the AWA pilots furloughed? This will be the biggest, weakest airline merger yet, facing a fiscal cliff and anemic recovery. The airline must be fed a steady stream of cash and any interruption to that flow (global unrest, stock market dive) will result in these guys dumping whatever is necessary to survive until the full integration is complete.

Everyone has to make their own choices, but there is a significant risk that will be reduced once the merger either comes or not. Additionally, the toxic relationship east and west will not vaporize just because the APA becomes the sheriff. The memories of how much damage USAPA did will linger and it will be hard for many folks who had to spend thousands of their own dollars to fight an out-of-control union to move on. Eventually those people will have to share crew rooms and hotel vans and cockpits. Choosing to hitch your future to that environment is not a decision to be made lightly or hastily. The return on investment in your career should be more than just bitter regrets for suffering the actions of others.

 

[General Lee]

The toxic mess between the East and the West will be resolved legally, and that will be that. The APA will not put up with USAPA's shananigans. After the SLI is finally taken care of and the Easties cannot back out of it, the Easties will mostly all retire, and then all will be good again. Moving to US before the merger is a GOOD idea for any Regional pilot. Both AA and US will have HUGE retirements over the next few years, and that will help with QOL, and a new contract will bring up the pay, especially for the US guys that have been stuck due to the Easties intransigence. I would say it's a good move.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Bringupthebird]

The toxic mess between the East and the West will be resolved legally, and that will be that. The APA will not put up with USAPA's shananigans. After the SLI is finally taken care of and the Easties cannot back out of it, the Easties will mostly all retire, and then all will be good again. Moving to US before the merger is a GOOD idea for any Regional pilot. Both AA and US will have HUGE retirements over the next few years, and that will help with QOL, and a new contract will bring up the pay, especially for the US guys that have been stuck due to the Easties intransigence. I would say it's a good move.


Bye Bye---General Lee

I wish I could share your optimism. USAPA will likely accept Nic with enough fences around CLT/DCA/PHL/PHX to nullify the effects, thus indemnifying APA and placating the east. You really don't think the east is that much older than the west, do you? And the APA has no experience in playing the role of white knight to other pilot groups, so I expect they'll have a hard time catching on.

Usually you have fairly good insight on thses sort of things, but here I see you getting caught up in the fantasy of a fairy godunion coming to make things right. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[weasel_lips]

Leave it to bird brain to drag this thread back into the crapper

 

[filejw]

No. But if you are on voluntary furlough or haven't come back from furlough on your own, and somebody below you has come back, he will not be placed in front of you on the list. Nobody can hopscotch above you on your own list.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Err. Yes Republic / Air West......People on the street took up to 18 months to be recalled.List was based on length of service as I recall.

 

[SWA/FO]

Exactly. Even in arbitration, everyone hired after the merger announcement gets stapled.

Thats not fair!!!

 

[johnsonrod]

You'll probably see many of the older Easties proactively retire after the NIC award is finally implemented - as it should be. So, there should be space for you.

Merry Christmas!

 

[thruthemurk]

How many pilots does AA have on furlough? I would think that would eat up quite a few years of retirement.