This merger wont happen. The U situation brings more bad than good. U should be left alone to collapse by itself. As long as Parker succumbs to the east coast terrorists, then this outfit is doomed.
AA would be better off with al-queada members flying its aircraft then al-usapa. Too much overlap in this merger would make it a tough sell.
All things considered, I think UAL and CAL will jump in bed together shortly and give AA just enough off their plate to make regulators happy and that will be it.
These mergers wont solve the industrys problems, only the elimination of one of the future "big four". UAL, AA, and DAL will survive, but U/AWA will collpase and be picked apart by the others. The LCC's will have SWA and Airtran and perhaps Virgin America among its survivors, but JetBlue will flop by the end of the year at the latest. The LCC's wont be LCC's anymore as their prices will be very close to the majors. Alaska might remain stand alone as will a few other carrirs serving regions (gee........a "regional airline"). RJ's, especially <50 seaters will be dramatically reduced (not eliminated) in favor of more 70-90 seaters, but the overall RJ fleet count will be substantially less.