Alaska News?

[msmb]

I thought swa stopped the transcons?

 

[Fubijaakr]

First - two years is an eternity in this industry.

Second - SWA has had a pretty tough time competing with AS. I think that Hawaiian is more afraid than AS is. Two financially healthy 737-800 opeartors operating from the west coast, each with there own feed cannot be good news at Hawaiian.

Both excellent points. It took AS 720 days to get ETOPS certification. Anyone who thinks Allegiant or SWA will take less time is dreaming. So there's a couple years of pad.

And SWA hasn't been outstandingly successful competing in the NW with AS. While AS and QX flights are routinely full and/or overbooked, SWA runs NW flights half or 3/4s full. Good for commuters, but not really a threat to AS/QX.

 

[HAL]

Hawaiian has got to be shaking in their boots. Filling an 800 to capacity and running it to the islands will always be cheaper than a 767 or 330 at reduced capacity. Fact is, their loads ARE down and AS has as many weekly departures there as they do.

And you got your HA load information from where? Every flight I've been doing for the last year has been as full or fuller than it has been for the previous several years. Our loads aren't falling, so you guys are just bringing in additional tourists (and the hotel bookings prove this out). Look at our published LF numbers and you'll see we're not suffering. As long as you keep bringing people to the islands, we all win.

HAL

 

[Dan Roman]

Yes, two years is a long time in our biz. That being said, I think AS' best HI ops will be these next two years. Competition is coming, and it is inevitable that the loads will reflect that.

Hawaiian has got to be shaking in their boots. Filling an 800 to capacity and running it to the islands will always be cheaper than a 767 or 330 at reduced capacity. Fact is, their loads ARE down and AS has as many weekly departures there as they do.
My concern is how many west coast cities is SWA planning on launching from that AS already serves? SWA will HAVE to change their inflight customer service styles to make it attractive enough for the cattle to sign up for a 5-6 hour ride.

I also attended a SIC seminar recently, and "BM" thinks it will be mid 2012 at the earliest that SWA can be ready. He also thinks Allegiant has similar timeframe issues. So, yes, the time for AS to reap the benefits of limited capacity is now through the next two years. After that the game is going to change. BLI, with a heavy Canadian pax influence, could be a real gold mine. But, how many other untapped gold mines are out there?

These are good times for AS. I also agree with idea that many have posted here that AS will grow in it's traditional conservative fashion. Too bad, because we could all use about 400 numbers below us!

Just my two cents from an already half-empty glass.

Very odd you would say "fact is."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Hawaiian-Airlines-increases-apf-2002781072.html?x=0&.v=1

Our traffic is up 12%. We have accelerated delivery of larger A330's because we need them, not because we are afraid of shrinking. AK has had no negative effect on Hawaiian that I can see. For example, I fly a lot of PDX trips. It is very rare to have more than a few empty seats. We do get revenue from AK when the jetstream kicks in though, we carry AK bags and if we have room they put passengers on us, and it's not a cheap ticket.

LAX to Hawaii has more airlines than any other route, yet we converted two flights a day to the A330 and with 50 extra seats and they were instantly snapped up, very high load factors on those routes. As HAL said, there is plenty of room for multiple airlines to bring people to Hawaii. The passengers AK brought to Hawaii didn't come from Hawaiian, but they did help boost the economy here, which is good for Hawaiian.

The seat mile costs are substantially lower on the 767 than on any 737. Think of it this way, a Hawaiian flight has about 250 or more passengers on it, to carry the same people to Hawaii on a 737 it would take two 737's, much more expensive. A lot of people like Hawaiian Air and they have a very strong marketing advantage flying to Hawaii because they are in fact "Hawaiian".

Hawaiian has no problem filling wide bodies to the west coast, their focus is now on expanding to Asia. Our Haneda flight is doing very well and the yield on those flights are much higher than what any west coast flight would be, Inchon, Korea is next which should do well as we have a good code share with Korean. Hawaiian plans to add 1 or 2 Asian destinations a year for the next five years.

If SWA comes to Hawaii it will boost the economy, which helps Hawaiian. Although it will hurt the traffic problem here on the North Shore.

 

[wscrj]

"chuckle"....looks like the HA guys shut this thread down pretty quick.

 

[CGHercster]

Good to hear

I'm glad to hear HA is doing just fine.

 

[ghostrider16]

whoop a dee doo!

 

[tico]

Both excellent points. It took AS 720 days to get ETOPS certification. Anyone who thinks Allegiant or SWA will take less time is dreaming. So there's a couple years of pad.

And SWA hasn't been outstandingly successful competing in the NW with AS. While AS and QX flights are routinely full and/or overbooked, SWA runs NW flights half or 3/4s full. Good for commuters, but not really a threat to AS/QX.

As to point one: Alaska Airlines has a long history of taking the longest to do everything. Either airline could probably do it in a year.

As to point two: Southwest has not bothered competing with Alaska Airlines yet...Too much out there for easy picking....Rest assured that when they come at Alaska in earnest, it will not be pretty and you will be asked for concessions

 

[RNP.15]

Give me a break. They came after Alaska already, and Alaska has held there own.

 

[Fubijaakr]

Give me a break. They came after Alaska already, and Alaska has held there own.

Exactly. They came after us in GEG, BOI and PDX. The used to have 6 flights a day between GEG and SEA. Now they have 3 and those are usually half full.

 

[tico]

Exactly. They came after us in GEG, BOI and PDX. The used to have 6 flights a day between GEG and SEA. Now they have 3 and those are usually half full.

Alaska does not fly to Boise any longer. They hardly fly to Spokane anymore.
And even with a pilot base, Portland is a much smaller presence than it was 10 years ago......

 

[RNP.15]

Sorry, more money to be made other places than BOI. Good luck with your AAI merger, hope you don't try to screw them...

 

[FlyinGuy]

Screw who????

 

[Fubijaakr]

Alaska does not fly to Boise any longer. They hardly fly to Spokane anymore.
And even with a pilot base, Portland is a much smaller presence than it was 10 years ago......

I was referring to AAG not merely AS. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[igneousy2]

Allegiant has already said that they expect to be flying to hawaii no sooner than 2012. But Allegiant is trying to do this with a new type so they have different issues than SWA would, but I still think SWA would be lucky to get Hawaii going before summer 2012. Getting Hawaii going while digesting Air Tran I think will be difficult.

 

[tico]

Allegiant has already said that they expect to be flying to hawaii no sooner than 2012. But Allegiant is trying to do this with a new type so they have different issues than SWA would, but I still think SWA would be lucky to get Hawaii going before summer 2012. Getting Hawaii going while digesting Air Tran I think will be difficult.

Two things that will help them.....Their flight ops department does not have "terminal,re-invent the wheel-itis" like Alaska's does. Their business side is not enamored with pilots. They understand that pilots are for flying airplanes and will probably get the right people for the job at hand.....

 

[igneousy2]

Two things that will help them.....Their flight ops department does not have "terminal,re-invent the wheel-itis" like Alaska's does. Their business side is not enamored with pilots. They understand that pilots are for flying airplanes and will probably get the right people for the job at hand.....

Two very good points....sadly.

 

[AK737FO]

"Reliable source" says that the company wants 18 more recalls like yesterday. If they could wave a magic wand, they would have 100% recalled now. To bad they have painted themselves into a corner and have to fight their way out of this self made mess. Lets hope they learn that they can furlough overnight, but that it takes many months to bring them back. With enough time we will get this pig through the python and move on into better days!

 

[Z_Pilot]

"Reliable source" says that the company wants 18 more recalls like yesterday. If they could wave a magic wand, they would have 100% recalled now. To bad they have painted themselves into a corner and have to fight their way out of this self made mess. Lets hope they learn that they can furlough overnight, but that it takes many months to bring them back. With enough time we will get this pig through the python and move on into better days!

That's too bad. I am soon going to be forced to sign a 2 year employment contract elsewhere.

They do have a magic wand...it's called 1.3 billion dollars of unrestricted cash in the bank and quarter after quarter of record profitability.

 

[Baze]

That *is* too bad, Z Pilot. I know in another week, you will have been out for 2 years, so I don't blame you for signing a 2-year contract with another outfit.

This begs the question: How many of our remaining involuntary furloughed pilots have signed long-term contracts by now?

*IF* the company wants to bring back the remaining 44, they may run into a big bypass number. Now, they're going to have to actually start up the application, interview, and hiring process. I'm sure flight ops is nowhere near ready for this.

Oh brother!

 

[Z_Pilot]

If they really honestly want us back yesterday, then why are they not hiring more instructors *now*? Why do they continue with a recall rate of 6/mo? Why has management not approached the MEC to work out an agreement for increased training? No, I am NOT advocating that we contract training out, but, I am sure a "win-win" situation can be found. There are several 737 sims out there.

 

[Baze]

Because people making these decisions (GH & BJ) are not pilots and they are too busy trying to save a few dollars. Of course, we're royally screwed with our current "staffing model." It's going to be very tough to run our Summer schedule with our current pilot staff, even with the usual premium trip & VSA #$%@s stepping in to save the day. We're definitely short on the FO side of the house.

 

[GuppyWN]

44? That's it? Almost sounds like they are just being stubborn.

Gup

 

[Baze]

Who knows? I think they were being stubborn and wanted to see if they could fly their current schedule with the pilots we have on the property. Maybe they were banking on a bigger turn-out with #^$%s picking up premium and VSA trips. Now, with the increased block hours, they're going to have a tough time with the schedule. I'm sure all lines will be built to 85 hours and all reserves will be breaking guarantee.

I hope there's another bid to bring more folks back by Summer, but they are going to need to put out the bid very soon for that to happen. The pilots coming back from now on will have to go through the entire training syllabus and not the abbreviated version. They will be well outside the 24 months since their last recurrent training.

Unfortunately, the most likely scenario is to try and get through the Summer with the current staffing numbers and start more recalls next Fall to gear up for 2012 and beyond! I hope I'm dead wrong on this.

 

[AK737FO]

Z -
They have interviewed / hired more instructors who now have to go through the whole process of becoming an instructor (just to replace the one's they let go unnecessarily - but that's another issue...). They can only handle 6 furloughs a month right now, even though they want it to be more. They have approached the MEC for help, and that issue is currently being worked on. They have approached Boeing for sim time. So you are on track - they are doing all the things you mentioned - but it still takes time. Granted, it could have been done better to begin with and I hope that they learn from the mess that they have made and choose a different path the next time this industry goes into a furlough frenzy.

The dust up to get 18 more ASAP comes from marketing releasing the "Spring" schedule - which showed us seriously short. So we are not even talking about what in the world we are going to do for next summer yet!

My money is on a bid coming out in the next two weeks, then a second bid out by March. I have no intel on that - just my gut feeling.

Happy New Year All - lets look forward to a great 2011 with all our people back on board!

 

[Baze]

AK737FO,

Thanks for the info. It shouldn't have had to come down to marketing releasing the Spring block hours for the company to realize that we're going to be short. We are way short now. Just look at the FO reserves in SEA the last few days. They've been deadheading FOs, especially from ANC, to cover SEA trips. Scheduling has been patching together some strange trips just to get flights covered.

I hope they learn from all this, but I'm not going to be holding my breath.

 

[msmb]

"Management" gets paid the big bucks to run this airline. Flt ops has been screaming for more than a year that they cut too deep. Someone needs to "retire" for this royal screw-up! Just my opinion ( reserve scum).

 

[Mookie]

"mgmnt" sees record load factors, record on time, record completion factors and high crew utilization. They see $$$$ at every turn. There is no way they are going to go back to the "good old days" of what we as pilots consider proper staffing. I hate to say it, but that's the new reality at this company as long as certain individuals are running crew planning.

Free M. Brisbane!!!!
Mookie

 

[Green Banana]

"mgmnt" sees record load factors, record on time, record completion factors and high crew utilization. They see $$$$ at every turn. There is no way they are going to go back to the "good old days" of what we as pilots consider proper staffing. I hate to say it, but that's the new reality at this company as long as certain individuals are running crew planning.

Free M. Brisbane!!!!
Mookie

Exactly on target. They are not short until you start to see canceled flights. Until that point they are just efficient.

 

[CesnaCaptn]

That's too bad. I am soon going to be forced to sign a 2 year employment contract elsewhere.

They do have a magic wand...it's called 1.3 billion dollars of unrestricted cash in the bank and quarter after quarter of record profitability.

I haven't looked for a while, but I thought you could only bypass recall up to one year if you're in an employment contract.