AirTran or Continental

[General Lee]

Our guy Grinstein said that there will eventually be three or four majors. American will probably be alone, although they could merge with Alaska. USAir/AWA will be another. That leaves four others--DL, CAL, NW, and UA. Grinstein said the best for us in terms of fleet types would be CAL, best for Brand would be NW, and best for routes would be UA. I am sure you could mix it up in many ways, but consolidation is coming, and no airline will liquidate----if USAir could go Chap 11 twice and the bankruptcy judge actually say in the beginning of the second court appearance "I will not let USAir liquidate"---then the mergers will happen. Being junior at CAL may have some bumps in the near future.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[MedFlyer]

I am sure you could mix it up in many ways, but consolidation is coming, and no airline will liquidate----if USAir could go Chap 11 twice and the bankruptcy judge actually say in the beginning of the second court appearance "I will not let USAir liquidate"---then the mergers will happen.

Bye Bye--General Lee

Might have been true a few years ago, but if fuel prices stay this high...it's a very different ball game. No BK judge can regulate fuel prices. If fuel prices reamin this high for an extended period of time....liquidation will happen.

USAirways was a small carrier (compared to DL) and fit well with HP. However, very few other mergers would be the same.

Why would CO want to merge with DL? There's very little upside and a lot of downside. Even the folks at HP are starting to sweat the merger with US. If they had known fuel prices were going to spike this high, I bet they wouldn't have even tried this merger.

 

[pkober]

Don't knock Lowes, 10% employee discount. Think of the furlough shack you could make for the family.

20% of the senority list junior never makes you safe. I had 27% below me at TWA and got furloughed after the buyout.

AA73, just wondering if the 3500 # for a Captain at CAL is a wag, or based on fact? At my interview they were saying approx 6 years to Captain.

Thanks

CLAMBAKE

 

[145 Lawndart]

I don't think that it is very likely a furloughed pilot would displace a current working pilot in any of the possible mergers combinations.

Lots of emotion but very little understanding of ALPA merger policy or alleghany(sp) mohawk LPP's

Think Career expectations at the time of merger not date of hire. In most cases date of hire means squat.

I like a Continental new hires chances.

Time will tell.

 

[aa73]

AA73, just wondering if the 3500 # for a Captain at CAL is a wag, or based on fact? At my interview they were saying approx 6 years to Captain.

Thanks

CLAMBAKE

I got that number from an acquaintance in a new hire class. I think what it meant was, in the last captain bid it went all the way down to a 3500 because not enough people bid EWR 737 CA, so it went really junior.

Maybe a Continental pilot could confirm or deny if it's accurate.

 

[Boeingman]

Bottom Captain # 3525 early 98 hire, EWR 737

 

[Boeingman]

I don't think that it is very likely a furloughed pilot would displace a current working pilot in any of the possible mergers combinations.

Lots of emotion but very little understanding of ALPA merger policy or alleghany(sp) mohawk LPP's

Think Career expectations at the time of merger not date of hire. In most cases date of hire means squat.

I like a Continental new hires chances.

Time will tell.

Correct.

 

[jbDC9]

AA73, just wondering if the 3500 # for a Captain at CAL is a wag, or based on fact? At my interview they were saying approx 6 years to Captain.

Yep, it's a fact... Sept. staffing shows the junior capt is #3322, EWR B737, hired 12/97, while the junior pilot on the list is #4457, EWR B757/767; as far as the captain bid awards go, the junior capt award went to #3525, also EWR B737, hired 03/98. Bid awarded, not trained yet.

 

[General Lee]

Might have been true a few years ago, but if fuel prices stay this high...it's a very different ball game. No BK judge can regulate fuel prices. If fuel prices reamin this high for an extended period of time....liquidation will happen.

USAirways was a small carrier (compared to DL) and fit well with HP. However, very few other mergers would be the same.

Why would CO want to merge with DL? There's very little upside and a lot of downside. Even the folks at HP are starting to sweat the merger with US. If they had known fuel prices were going to spike this high, I bet they wouldn't have even tried this merger.

Again, you forget that Delta hasn't even cut into most of the employees salaries. Can that help? You bet. Will looking for better revenue opportunities help out? Sure. You are looking through a fog my man. Delta will start flying everything they can INTL to make more revenue and offset higher fuel prices, and that is after they give me and others another pay cut to make up the difference. They will get pension reform or just drop it, which is fine with most of us. They will sell you guys off and pay for some of the high gas. They will do whatever they can, and they will survive.


So, you don't think large mergers would work? You don't? IF they fit well, they will work. US and AWA fit well because they didn't have any common hubs. NW and DL also avoid each other fairly well (after ditching CVG and MEM). NW would have Asia and the Nothern cities of MSP and DTW---we have ATL, JFK, SLC, Europe and South America. Remember also that Delta only has one union, and that makes it a very attractive partner when it comes to labor. I recently stated that the average DL employee makes 7% less than Southwest, compared to 24% more last year. That would sound great to most management people. And, why would CAL want to merge with DL? When high gas forces everyone to file, and when others start finding dancing partners, then everyone will want to join in. Also, investors want to invest in companies that they think might last and yield them a profit someday. The banks just gave United $3 billion(without a plan) when they really only wanted $2.5 billion. What was the other $500 million for? To pi$$ away for gas? There will be mergers eventually, and DL has a mostly non-union workforce and the largest hub in the world. If we go to court, the debt will be restructured, and things will start moving. But, you think otherwise. If I were you, I would worry more about how JO may treat you eventually. That will be an interesting merger if it happens.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[pkober]

Thanks for the info.

CLAMBAKE

 

[1-tacan-rule]

Good Advice So Far...

So I'll add a few points as well:

1) Divorce your wife. Her presence in your life will only make you feel guilty while you're "flirting" with all the FAs. Better yet, kill her. If you need a place to bury her, e-mail me. I still have room for two more under my porch.

2) If you're balding, buy membership ("Golden" preferred) in a Hair Replacement Club. You'll feel better about yourself. Think of it as a really nice $5,000 hat.

3) Step away from the computer, find the closest mirror, and ask yourself why in the name of everything holy would you seek advice from this group of virtual nerds, lepers, know-it-alls, done-it-alls, losers, and lepers (present company accepted, by the way)

4) Tell them both to pound sand...you're waiting for jetBlue to call

 

[FlyinPiker]

Tacan, Finally a clear voice in this maze of an industry!!!!!!

Kit Darby has met his match.
Where do I sign up???



As for the General's comments:

CAL could be competing with a DAL in bankruptcy, a NWA in bankruptcy, a UAL in bankruptcy, a USAiways in bankruptcy (or if they pull it off cut to the bones cost carrier) all at once.

Not to mention our normal cast of low cost carriers.

Might be a battle ahead, but I think there's one ahead just about everywhere you go at this point.

That being said.....I'd still roll the dice and go with CAL. You have a safety net........GO GUARD! Nice job staying in.

Piker

 

[mnboyev]

I said it once... I'll say it twice...... CAL DAL NWA are gonna hook up. They have been in bed with each other for years now. Code share crap....Remember the failed buyout of CAL by NWA fellas...? General is right, something will happen... I'd bet two beers on it baby.

So... if that is the case... Where would a junior Continental fella rest ? Duplication of routes, equipment, ALPA fences, reductions ?

If your young... CAL.... If your getting grey hair, then AirTran. The money would be the same in the long run unless you can get 30 years at Continental fly the big stuff....

I'm not a weekend warrior... but I understand AirTran is very accomodating with military flyers. Plus... our green jets are better looking, and the Friday chips are to die for.

Good Luck !! Who's got the crystal ball today ?

 

[Pilotbob3]

I recieved a copy of the retirement schedule from Continental:
2005: 159
2006: 250
2007: 320
2008: 245
2009: 217
2010: 209
2011: 219
2012: 220
2013: 195
2014: 203
2015: 170
2016 - 2020: 848
2020 - 2025: 743

Total: 3998

Looks like alot of movement even with little growth.

 

[N tha jungle]

Hey Pulp,
This is all great info for you- when do you have to decide? Also, please let us know your decision, we're all counting on you!