AirTran negotiations update

[Just thinking]

Curious about the cost of a 190 compared to 717? Farming out the flying is not in the best interest of the pilot group and I think that the industry has a mulitude of examples to support that argument. Merger goes through and we will be the largest operator of 717's. Training facility established, maintenance, parts, skills etc. etc. etc. If even 20 aircraft are allowed to fly under the colors (by other operator) they will become the most highly utilized 20 aircraft in the fleet. This thought process is due to the "scheduling" mindset that seems to exist within operations. They will beg you to help them out and then stab you in the back as soon as you walk away. Sorry the "trust" has been thrown under the bus by them long ago. I would expect them to use the 190's at the expense of the 717's... doesn't make sense but they have paved that road a multitude of times.
Do the 190's truly have that much of a cost savings over the 717? What does a 190 cost? We have the current 717's for a bargain price. The merger will increase the fleet for an excellent price. 737's coming in at a rate that sustains growth. Do we really need to add a third wheel in this equation? (Is the 190 truly in play to threaten the pay as a negotiating tool?) I can't really see cutting 17 seats.... if you got them use them! Do no allow yourself to look at the 717 as large RJ.... creep will soon include the 737.... don't think it will happen.... look at the historical data. 36-50-70-72-75-90-now 100 seat creep for the regional pay. Who is to say that they won't bump it up to 125 seat and cut out 12 seats from the 737? Because it flies coast to coast? Naw.... Delta did SLC to ATL in a RJ. Keep it in house. Keep it with our pilot group. Can't see the economy of scale for the 190 in house and anything out of house will see the erosion of our flying.

 

[Lear70]

Do the 190's truly have that much of a cost savings over the 717? What does a 190 cost? We have the current 717's for a bargain price. The merger will increase the fleet for an excellent price. 737's coming in at a rate that sustains growth. Do we really need to add a third wheel in this equation? (Is the 190 truly in play to threaten the pay as a negotiating tool?)

Good questions. I don't believe it's an IMMEDIATE threat, but a serious one that could come back to haunt us in 4-5 years.

Yes, the 190 is cheaper on a CASM basis, but not by enough to justify getting rid of relatively maintenance-free aircraft to get them.

More to the point, our 717's don't cost us a lot of money in upkeep and overhauls AT THE PRESENT TIME (relative to, say, a MD-80 coming up on heavy D check and engine/APU overhauls).

When the 717 starts getting some serious hours on it and starts requiring heavy MX, those brand new Embraers will start looking pretty tasty. What will out contract say at that time?

THAT'S why they need to be kept in-house. Gotsta plan for the future!

 

[CitationLover]

...Merger goes through and we will be the largest operator of 717's.....

aren't you already the largest operator of them?

 

[the turtle]

Airtran recruiters are saying upgrades in under three years...what's the real story?

 

[MINIME]

LEAR 70, you're completely correct when it comes to the scope issue. We've seen this happen at the regional level but with little or no attention from the big boys. Majors and LCCs need to pay attention to scope. Who's to stop any management group that wants 70, 90 or 100 seat jets and hire a bunch of College grads to fly them? They can and most probably will try to do it if they can get away with it. If it's cheap and legal, why not?

Also, is your union trying to acquire help with negotiations from the likes of SWAPA or APA? I would think that those two unions combined could offer a great deal of insight to the NPA on the ongoing negotiations. My opinion is that AAI pilots should be looking at SWAPA payscales when negotiating. Why not? Yes SWA makes way more money but they're also bigger and have to pay for more airplanes and personel as well. Airtran may not be there yet, but it's definitely on its way. I think that Airtran, if it's not already, will be the second most succesful LCC in the country below SWA.

 

[Lear70]

Airtran recruiters are saying upgrades in under three years...what's the real story?

BWWAAAHAHAHAHA!!!

Good one.

Seriously, that WAS the story... about a year ago. Crept from 2 1/2 years upwards to 3 years about 2 months ago. No more CA upgrades for the rest of the summer. That will take things solidly into the 3 1/2 year mark.

Just think of it this way. We have approximately 1600 pilots on property. If half of them are CA's, we'd have to DOUBLE in size for a new-hire to upgrade.

We have around 150 aircraft last count with a 5:1 staffing ratio (5 crews per aircraft = 10 pilots * 150 = 1500).

Attrition is running about 10% a year (10-12 pilots per month from Age 60 and people jumping to SWA, FDX, etc). 4 years from now that's about 400 pilots gone from attrition. Then take the 25 or so that bypass each year adds about 100 people above you that you don't have to account for.

So... 1,500 pilots above you on the seniority list minus 400 for attrition and 100 for bypass/failure means you're sitting at around a 1,000 seniority number 4 years from now.

We're slated to get about 60 more aircraft over the next 4 years which means 300 more CA slots.

We'll have about 1800 pilots by then, 900 will be CA's, about #1,000 - 1,100 (including F/O's who bypassed) on the seniority list at that time.

I'm in the high 1,200's right now, and with 500 guys gone for attrition / bypass / failure puts me just BARELY off reserve, upgrading 2-3 years from now (which is why I'm so adamant about F/O payrates).

The only way that will speed up is if we take new aircraft deliveries at a MUCH faster rate than anticipated OR we lose a bunch of pilots to attrition.

Guys who have been hired in the last 6 months and from here on out may not upgrade with our current delivery schedule.

That said, barring terrible financial performance, an airline is only profitable as long as it is growing, historically speaking (low-seniority pilots are a small, but necessary portion of the CASM puzzle). So you will probably see an aircraft order from AirTran in the next 2-3 years that continues our growth.

Long story short (too late), don't expect a 2 1/2 year upgrade.

Hope that made sense...

 

[Ty Webb]

Nice work, Lear70, but I would make a few changes to your formula:

1) We really staff the airline at 12 pilots per plane, if you take management, mil leave, medical, and training status into account, so your number of 300 CA for future deliveries looks to me more like 360.

2) Plan on nearly 50 TWA guys going back when they get the recall; remember, they may only have a year or two of AMR seniority, but their longevity (pay) is based upon their years at both carriers, so most of them will take a pay raise when they recall. I expect most of the AA guys to go back, as well.

3) I don't think the split of CA to FO is truly 50/50. You can find out better by doing a "Master Bid" and checking "Show ALL Pilots" to find out. I would look at it, but I'm running Vista and haven't been able to log on to Crew Trac with it.

Regards,

TW
.

 

[Lear70]

Good stuff, and very probably true.

As far as CA/FO split, I went on to Crew Trac, those options aren't availble to me. Maybe Crew Bid instead? Can't get it to load...

I actually made an error in the above formula. If we add 60 aircraft with 5 crews per aircraft, that's actually 600 more pilots, not 300, and would take our total seniority list to 2,100, not 1,800.

Halfway up the seniority list would still fall in the 900-1100 range for CA given the people who bypass and a 50/50 ratio (which may well be more like 45/55 or even 55/45, who knows).

I'm certain the TWA guys will go back. However, with the recent AWA/UAir arbitrator ruling for seniority putting ALL the UAir furloughees solidly at the bottom of the seniority list (16 year UAir guys junior to 1st year AWA pilots), the UAir guys who are here will probably stay put.

Still means a 4-5 year upgrade at best for guys hired right now and sitting on reserve for a long time until we order and receive more aircraft, as far as I can tell with the math anyway...

 

[STL717]

Nice work, Lear70, but I would make a few changes to your formula:

1) We really staff the airline at 12 pilots per plane, if you take management, mil leave, medical, and training status into account, so your number of 300 CA for future deliveries looks to me more like 360.

2) Plan on nearly 50 TWA guys going back when they get the recall; remember, they may only have a year or two of AMR seniority, but their longevity (pay) is based upon their years at both carriers, so most of them will take a pay raise when they recall. I expect most of the AA guys to go back, as well.

3) I don't think the split of CA to FO is truly 50/50. You can find out better by doing a "Master Bid" and checking "Show ALL Pilots" to find out. I would look at it, but I'm running Vista and haven't been able to log on to Crew Trac with it.

Regards,

TW
.

I wouldn't plan on too many exTWA pilots leaving. American has many problems. Working conditions are not pleasant, to put it nicely. The lack of leadership at American will be very evident when the next recession hits.

If an exTWA captain goes back to American he will make more money than right seat at AirTran, but if he stays at AirTran the pay is better once he upgrades. The AirTran pilots that were FO’s at TWA are already upgrading and making much more than they could if recalled to AA.

Anyone that returns to AA will spend many years in the right seat before any chance of upgrade.



Oh.... and they are already bypassing

 

[jimcav]

I wouldn't plan on too many exTWA pilots leaving. American has many problems. Working conditions are not pleasant, to put it nicely. The lack of leadership at American will be very evident when the next recession hits.

If an exTWA captain goes back to American he will make more money than right seat at AirTran, but if he stays at AirTran the pay is better once he upgrades. The AirTran pilots that were FO’s at TWA are already upgrading and making much more than they could if recalled to AA.

Anyone that returns to AA will spend many years in the right seat before any chance of upgrade.



Oh.... and they are already bypassing

I hope you guys stay. Ex TWA dudes rock.