Yeah everyone hates when I interject with facts. Latest fleet projections are 688 airframes on 1/1/2015 BUT that includes 36 717s that won't be in the schedule. By my Indiana public school math that leaves 652 airframes producing block hours. This makes sense because replacing 88 717s with -800s allows the fleet to shrink by 29 airframes while producing the same ASMs assuming flat block hours. The other 17 I can only assume are due to the fact that the 717s aren't producing that many block hours. The size of fleet in 2015 and beyond will depend on the classic fleet retirements which is somewhat unknown.
Yes, you throw in some facts, alright,... but then you jump to conclusions
not supported by those facts, and act as you have all the answers. The reality is, that you cherry pick a few facts to make it look like your pre-formed and somewhat bizarre pessimistic conclusions sound valid.
You are the same guy who a while back used your "facts" to supposedly "prove" impending Southwest furloughs. Literally every single one of your posts screamed about these furloughs (although you did occasionally throw in "facts" about "givebacks and concessions" in our upcoming Section 6).
Regarding airframes: Your "loss of 29 airframes" conclusion from cherry-picked facts is complete BS. Gary has said numerous times that the 717s going away are being replaced by aircraft purchases and life extension of a bunch of -300s. How in the hell did your mind leap to the conclusion that he'll replace the
exact number of seats from those 717s
solely with 737-800 purchases?! Seriously, where do you get this crap?
He's already spent money to keep -300s longer, that were slated to be replaced (reskinning & winglets, GPS, upcoming evolve interiors) for this exact reason. Do your "facts" tell you that he's going to throw away all that upgrade money by retiring those specific -300s before recouping his investment?
As far as replacement aircraft go, he's been saying for over a year now that Southwest is looking at used -700s to augment 717 replacement plans. And, in fact, he's already signed for 10 of these jets from WestJet to start. Do you think it occurred to him that he can operate a 737-700 for the exact same cost as he can a 717 (an -800 would be more)? Do you think that it occurred to him that as the 737-MAX gets closer in the next year or three (during the 717 divestment schedule), he can get used -700s even cheaper?
The company's line is that they will keep the fleet flat until he can attain 15% ROIC. NOT that they will keep ASMs exactly the same and
reduce the fleet by 5%. Give it a rest, dude. Seriously. All I can say is that thank God that YOU'RE not in charge of anything. Geez, if YOU were in charge of this airline, we'd be using our profits to buy going-out-of-business signs for the big firesale that's obviously just around the corner. Why, I'd bet that even General Lee is thinking right now about you, "man, THAT guy sure is a Southwest hater!"
Indiana Ghetto Jet dude: We're not gonna' furlough, and we're not giving concessions in our Section 6. Feel better now?
Bubba