AirTran MEC Chair message.

[texman]

For the 12 month period ending 3/31/12, SWA pulled a 6.1% ROIC with an economic fuel cost of $3.30/gallon. Doing the reverse math provided by the data in the Q1 2012 earnings release, here are the fuel prices that would have been necessary to pull 10% and 15% ROIC:

$3.03/gallon => 10% ROIC

$2.57/gallon => 15% ROIC

The latest SWA RASM estimates were for May 2012 and they came in 5-6% higher than May 2011. The latest EIA spot prices for Jet A are in the $2.60-2.70 range. With the current revenue initiatives coming online over the next few years (Rapid Rewards, AirTran acquisition synergies, B737-800 deployment, and international flying) and the current trends in energy costs, SWA could attain a 15% ROIC quicker than you think. The question is how many consecutive months of lower energy costs will it take for Gary to feel comfortable pulling the growth lever. I seriously doubt SWA is only producing 120 billion ASMs annually by the year 2015.

YES! We could hit the 15% this year, or trend that way.

 

[carl p]

Wouldn't that be nice.

 

[Luv2BFlyin]

Hey b*tches... make sure to speak your mind in Big D at the training center, I mean you will be there for 45 days so you will have plenty of time to share your feelings.

Then tell it to your check airman on IOE.

Welcome to SWA. Enjoy your extra 2-4 days off a month.

If you don't live in base, do you spend 4 extra days commuting which would negate or actually lessen the days off?

 

[Lear70]

2-4 extra days off per month? Awesome. I average 18 days off now. So I'll get 20-22 days off a month? Sweet!

 

[RobZerbe]

True, but that's only HALF the story. I know, because I was in the room.

You aren't the only person on these forums who was "in the room". To be clear, exactly what SLI discussions were you "in the room for"?

We ALSO took LESS seniority because we were going to retain our 717 Captain slots. That was very specifically discussed.

I was there from day one. The conversation you describe never happened. Specifically or generally.

 

[scoreboardII]

oh snap!

 

[Crash Pad]

Hey look it's SWAPA guy. Shouldn't you ask GK if it's ok to post on here? Honestly you should be embarrassed a staple would have passed our side, after our jobs were threatened. If you have GK in your corner push the advantage ALPA would have.

Lear is full of poop. He pushed hard to get the 7 to 1 vote. He has no room to complain, criticize, or talk. He lobbied hard and got exactly what he wanted. He then went to Dallas and got us this deal. He only ignored 86 percent of us.

 

[FlyinGuy]

Lear is all over the map. Just because you try to sound smart, does not make you smart.

 

[maxblast72]

YES! We could hit the 15% this year, or trend that way.

We are definitely trending that way now with the recent drop of fuel. However, until Q1 2012 drops out of the 12 month look back calculation on 3/31/13 (fuel was $3.44/gal for Q1 2012), we probably won't hit 15% ROIC.

I bet we are flying 130 billion ASMs by the end of 2015. Some of that growth will be due to replacing 117 seaters with 175 seaters while the rest would be due to increased utilization/larger fleet size (ie more block hours).

 

[maxblast72]

2-4 extra days off per month? Awesome. I average 18 days off now. So I'll get 20-22 days off a month? Sweet!

Must be nice. Been on reserve for over 5 years. Until November 2010, I averaged 11 days off per month. Since then I averaged 13 days off per month.

While I will lose my Captain seat when the B717 goes away, the 17-18 day off hard line won't be horrible once I go to training in Dallas. If I work 1 or 2 extra days (still more than 15 days off), my SWA FO W-2 will exceed my AirTran reserve Captain W-2. Not to mention I will get the holidays off until I reupgrade as well.

 

[bladeusa]

Any guesses how much $ we are losing again based on current hedges.

 

[Lear70]

I was there from day one. The conversation you describe never happened. Specifically or generally.

And you were not in OUR room at all times we were talking with management, nor we were in YOUR room.

Hell, there was one day you guys didn't even COME to the GO.

So to say that the conversation didn't happen is simply a.) impossible for you to know and b.) just incorrect. If you haven't noticed, one of our Merger Committee members who is ALSO on this board, disagrees with me often, and posts regularly, doesn't disagree with my statement, either.

I'm here to tell you that conversation DID happen, and in the way I describe. Sorry you don't like it, but that's not a debatable fact.

 

[Crash Pad]

Any guesses how much $ we are losing again based on current hedges.

Oh it's a ton. Not nearly as much as we lose every day when people call in sick!

 

[humveedriver]

Any guesses how much $ we are losing again based on current hedges.

12 cents a gallon in the 1st quarter. (7th line down)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/southwest-airlines-reports-first-quarter-results-2012-04-19

 

[Lear70]

Must be nice. Been on reserve for over 5 years. Until November 2010, I averaged 11 days off per month. Since then I averaged 13 days off per month.

While I will lose my Captain seat when the B717 goes away, the 17-18 day off hard line won't be horrible once I go to training in Dallas. If I work 1 or 2 extra days (still more than 15 days off), my SWA FO W-2 will exceed my AirTran reserve Captain W-2. Not to mention I will get the holidays off until I reupgrade as well.

And see, that's the problem. You were negotiating from a personal perspective of "it won't get any worse for me, and can only get better".

Many of us won't be that lucky. I will go from whatever weekends and holidays I want off, 18 days a month off, to back on reserve at a decent base (unless I choose a 5 hour commute to OAK or LAS which isn't going to happen).

Basically I give up all my quality of life for money. And my fiance' and I do just fine on the money I make now... many of us would rather have had the seniority.

So now that it's over, and the seniority is lost forever, many people just have a "get what you can get" mentality moving forward, and why not? Nothing else is really fixable.

For you it may be a wash, for most of us, it sucks, and is simply going to take time to get over. We will, but it will take time, and a bunch of other people telling us to hurry up and get over it doesn't help either. No one can dictate other people's attitudes, we have to get there on our own.

 

[FatesPawn]

You aren't the only person on these forums who was "in the room". To be clear, exactly what SLI discussions were you "in the room for"?

I was there from day one. The conversation you describe never happened. Specifically or generally.

Excuse me while I get some popcorn.

:beer:

 

[maxblast72]

The table is located on page 52 of the LUV annual shareholder report. With WTI prices below $90/barrel, SWA will pay about 10-15 cents per gallon above unhedged market price plus $5 million in premiums for Q2 and $37 million in premiums for the 2nd half of 2012.

So it looks like SWA will "eat" $50 mil in Q2 and $70-90 mil in Q3 and Q4 unless Isreal and Iran decide to go at it. Of course, the overall fuel bill will be $300-400 million less per quarter than projected just a few months ago as well. I think Gary would take that trade any day of the week. Gary just prefers having that "insurance policy" there while guys like Doug Parker don't mind moving forward without a hedge portfolio for protection.

There will also be a significant accounting loss reported next month as the future value of the 2013-2015 hedge portfolio gets marked down to due the recent drop in oil. Accounting or "on paper" gains/losses don't get included in ROIC calculations.

 

[texman]

The table is located on page 52 of the LUV annual shareholder report. With WTI prices below $90/barrel, SWA will pay about 10-15 cents per gallon above unhedged market price plus $5 million in premiums for Q2 and $37 million in premiums for the 2nd half of 2012.

So it looks like SWA will "eat" $50 mil in Q2 and $70-90 mil in Q3 and Q4 unless Isreal and Iran decide to go at it. Of course, the overall fuel bill will be $300-400 million less per quarter than projected just a few months ago as well. I think Gary would take that trade any day of the week. Gary just prefers having that "insurance policy" there while guys like Doug Parker don't mind moving forward without a hedge portfolio for protection.

There will also be a significant accounting loss reported next month as the future value of the 2013-2015 hedge portfolio gets marked down to due the recent drop in oil. Accounting or "on paper" gains/losses don't get included in ROIC calculations.

Ok you and Humm seem like smart guys. If fuel stays like so, what year could we hit the 15% ROIC. 2016-2018?

 

[redflyer65]

Excuse me while I get some popcorn.

:beer:

Is it too early for a beer with that popcorn?

 

[vixin]

Lear is full of poop. He pushed hard to get the 7 to 1 vote. He has no room to complain, criticize, or talk. He lobbied hard and got exactly what he wanted. He then went to Dallas and got us this deal. He only ignored 86 percent of us.

This speaks volumes. He is already getting a wonderful reputation at SWA and he isnt even here yet. Must be proud.