Airtran goes for Midwest Airlines

[73-Driver]

Does any one not from AAI think this is really going to happen? Just wondering what the YX pilots are saying.

 

[TWA Dude]

Now, I'm just a pilot but what if they (airTran) just bought up shares of midwest on the open market, and not pay the premium? Then say "hey we own 30% of you, how about selling us the rest".

In USA Today there's an article that states that if one investor buy 30% of MEH stock a poison pill can be enacted that doubles the number of shares available, thus diluting their share. So in other words, it won't work here.

 

[flyin4jsus]

Maybe Air Wisconsin would buy up skyway. Just never know how these things work out.

 

[Captainjerky]

The future

I was sort of hoping Richard Branson would buy off Skyway so he'd have a type certificate and pilots to start Virgin Galactic. Do you think my 2 year Associate degree is competitive for getting an interview there?

 

[ultrarunner]

I think it'll happen. AAI only offered what was required to force MEH in putting the offer to the BOD for vote. At the time AAI did this, there is no reason to think they did not anticipate this outcome. And AAI would have had no reason NOT to go public if they really didn't want the outfit and were not willing to pay more.

It's all about the dance now. AAI can force a shareholder vote. MEH, while not under any obligation to do so, could open their books in hopes of AAI increasing their offer. This is unlikely given the recent spin TH has put fourth in his press releases, but still wouldn't surprise me, considering the only DD AAI has done is from public information anyway. Remember, it's all about the money.

There could be no better time for shareholders to get out, and IMO, if AAI pumps up the price, this could be a GREAT time for TH and senior leadership to bail and take a massive chunk of cash with them.

I would think AAI has the cash and/or backing to likely double their offer. I don't think the offer will go that high, but if it gets to 15 or 16 bucks a share I would think all the institutional holders as well as all shareholders would be on board.

 

[⌐ FLYER]

RE: Einstein/Chucky, etc...

"... Oh, and the questions will be written by BestPilot..."

That's funny! Will he/she/it be on the interview board as well axing tough questions?

 

[Freightdog75]

Uncle Timmy(YX) says in company released memo that it's not going to happen. Take it for what it's worth, he stabbed us(Skyway) in the back by farming out our 50 seat flying. I don't believe anything from him anymore, whatever. Good luck all.

FD75

 

[bestpilot]

If it goes through, "Welcome Aboard" to all, except for Chuck Yogurt, who will need to re-apply, and will be interviewed by a board consisting of Fletch, FL717 and myself, with 737Pylt observing as a neutral party . . . . Oh, and the questions will be written by BestPilot.

Duuuude! Show dat Ole Silly Trix Wabbit some freaking luv!!! Dat Ole Chuckie at da Tranny? AWWW YEEEAAHHH boyyyeeee!!!! If he gonna be a Capn here, den like I be like gotza be like doin a trip wit da Chuckie, den like a trip wit Ole Ty Guy, and like keep like doin dat cause like dat wood be like wwwaaayyyy fun and stuff!

If ole Chuckie boyee gonna like be a Co-yogurt an stuff, den like I jus gotzta get dat ole bid in fer like dat ole leftie seat an stuff. Hey like "Yougort dude, Gimmie dat Checklist, my brother from another mother!!"

Man oh freaking man, me an ole Chuckles doin da Tranny proud!!!!!!

I cantz freaking wait!!!!!!


AWWWWWWW Yeeeaaaahhhhh, boyeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[tubelcane]

The TWA MEC didnt just wake up one morning and say "Oh you know this scope language , it's a load of hooey, wer'e gonna roll the dice and hope our brothers at APA will welcome us with open arms."

What tv9 said!

 

[PCL_128]

Hate to break it to you, Lear, but you can expect a representational vote if this merger goes through. Still have your ALPA card?

 

[ultrarunner]

Hate to break it to you, Lear, but you can expect a representational vote if this merger goes through. Still have your ALPA card?

True, but if AAI pilots wanted ALPA on-property, I would think they would already be there.

Just a thought.

 

[TV9Driver]

So the vote would be 400 for ALPA and 1500 against ALPA......hmmm...

 

[mnboyev]

Ahh.. 1501 counting me..... But I'm open to new ideas.. Cant wait to work with the Mid Ex fellas.. good bunch I understand... at least they know what ice fishing is !!

I think AAI is screwing up... again !! ...imagine that.. at least they got the press machine working this time... good thinking... no sense in pissing everybody off at the onset.. like ATA..... whatever..

this will never happen.. crappy lawyers at AAi... they will never understand the midwest... good product.. good people.... hometown loyalty... Uh.. they need to embrace the community and employees... welcome.. welcome.. have some hotdish... but Orlando dont get it.... again.

say what you want .. stock price... merger... integration.. I'll bet a case of Old swill right now that it wont happen !! Who's in on the AirTran side ? Orlando will screw it up.... again.... imagine that ! ... Oh.. and how bout that xmas deal going on at tranny this week ?... if you off on xmas... better not open any mail that is certified... or you'll be working !!

Merry Xmas to all... and to all .. a good nite....

See ya guys on the radio...

 

[dtfl]

That's cool, didn't mean to sound like I was going on the offensive or anything,,,

I also don't want something that's going to hurt EITHER side. It's not fair to staple their guys to the bottom of the list, nor is it fair to ask our F/O's to suddenly find themselves stuck on F/O pay for another 2, 3, or 4 years with a one for one or even one for five integration.

Hell, the current delivery schedule, if no more orders are placed, just barely puts our CURRENT F/O's in the CA seat at the end of it, much less if you added 200 or so more guys in front of them.

Talk about mass exodus, we were discussing the upcoming recalls and hiring for the majors and the pilots here (who would go, who wouldn't). Most of us aren't actively looking anywhere else, as we like the schedules we're getting and the 3 year upgrade (for pilots hired in the last year or two) is HUGE, but I tell you this:

If this thing comes to fruition and you add 2 or 3 years to someone's upgrade track OR if you put enough people in front of them that they have no hope of upgrade by the time we take our last scheduled 737 delivery PLUS we don't get a contract by the time 1 or 2 more majors start hiring or we end up with only 10% or so of a raise for the F/O's (which basically only covers COLA for the period we've been without COLA raises), you WILL see a mass exodus towards the door.

The HR department has been able to be very picky the last several years, and most of the new-hires have LOTS of PIC jet time, 4 year degrees, and clean backgrounds. There's nothing stopping them from bailing as the flood gates open up except a promising future of quick upgrade at a decent pay rate (currently here).

Take that away and leave them making the same thing they were as an RJ Captain stuck as an F/O for a decade and this company could easily start seeing $5 Million a year or more in training cost expense increases.

I was furloughed from a legacy when I applied to Airtran - then got recalled to my airline, but took mil leave and got an Airtran interview - still wanted to fly for Airtran for all the reasons you listed above (deliveries..new AC...quick upgrade) but if this happens..I will not accept a class date from AT (in the pool) and go back to my legacy airline when my mil leave is up. If I have to sit for 6-8 years as an FO why not do it at a higher pay scale? Who wouldn't go where the $ is if they will be doing nearly the same job?
Nothing against Airtran as the folks there and the service have been nothing but wonderful...but I think most will seek other employment...you are very spot-on in your predictions..should this merger happen

 

[Ty Webb]

Ahhh . . . the coming Christmas storm . . . . .poetic justice.

The Company stomped away from the negotiating table in November, saying, basically, "F#$@ You!" . . . .

A few, short weeks later, they've been reduced to begging and threatening -trying to fill hundreds of trips over a three-day period with no crew.

Couldn't have happened to a couple of nicer guys . . . Usually, you have to wait a lot longer than this to get a payback this good.
.

 

[Phaedrus]

What the heck did mnboyev say?

 

[FDJ2]

ALPA merger policy is only applicable if BOTH carriers are ALPA carriers.

Otherwise seniority integration has to be negotiated between both unions.

There's several examples of this over the last 30-40 years...

Well that might depend on the individual contract. However, any procedures in an ALPA contract that stipulate the method of determining a seniority list integration in the event of a merger is effectively a merger policy.

Generally speaking ALPA carriers have merger and integration protections in their contract, but if a pilot group decides to, for whatever reason, concede those protections, then I hardly think that that situation is a prime example of ALPA merger policy or protections.

 

[FDJ2]

Lear70,
FDJ2,

TWA pilots did not think it was in their best interest to abandon our protections, we were told by our ALPA representation that it was required for us to agree to it to facilitate a "fair and equitable" integration.

That really doesn't make much sense now does it. You have to concede your integration protections to facilitate a "fair and equitable" integration? What, were your protections "not fair and equitable"?

Regardless of the reason, the fact that the TWA pilots conceded their ALPA integration protections makes it hard to condemn the effectiveness of those protections when they were not contractually available at the time of the integration.

 

[Citrus531]

Part of this comes from this article on smartmoney

http://www.smartmoney.com/onedaywonder/index.cfm?story=20061213&nav=ibs&ibshatkey=atl

Pretty interesting


King says a merger makes sense for AirTran, which has deferred delivery of new aircraft and needs to expand its destination network if it's going to grow. It now flies to about 50 cities, mostly on the East Coast and in Florida.

"They've been growing fast but haven't been able to expand geographically," he says. A proposed agreement with ATA was upended at the end of 2004 when Southwest Airlines (LUV: 15.75, -0.19, -1.2%) outbid AirTran for six gates at Chicago's Midway airport, which would've boosted its network. "Southwest came in with a check and blew them away, and Southwest moving into Chicago really put a big wedge into the middle of the country [for regional and low-cost carriers]."

The takeover bid would help boost AirTran's load factor — the percentage of seats available that are actually purchased by passengers — and keep it up at profitable levels, says Morningstar analyst Marisa Thompson. In the end, that should be enough to lift the deal off the runway.
"With the premium ATA offered to Midwest shareholders, this is the kind of deal that's going to be in the can when all is said and done," she says. "I think Midwest would have serious trouble proving to its shareholders that it could create more value on a standalone basis."

The Bottom Line

Midwest shares peaked Wednesday at $11.53, well above the premium offered by AirTran. While they've ebbed a bit since, most potential upside was erased by the close of trading Wednesday, and now investors need to wait and see if the hostile takeover will proceed.

Betting on mergers is a recipe for trouble for most small investors — they're usually late to the party and have the most trouble getting out of bad bets. King says it's unlikely more suitors will come a-callin' in Milwaukee, because Midwest's appeal is pretty limited, which effectively rules out the possibility of rival bids.

"This isn't a huge deal, but it's a nice deal," he says. "It's not going to affect the competitive balance anywhere at all, but it gives AirTran room to grow. This airline Midwest has been on the fringe, and but doesn't have any key territory or key assets or market strength anywhere other than Milwaukee."
AirTran management's main challenge is to pull off the takeover and manage a smooth integration of the smaller carrier, Thompson says. Airline mergers that happen outside of bankruptcy, which allows parties to work around union agreements that might otherwise prove intractable, are tricky things, she says. Not only do labor issues need to be resolved, but seniority and pay questions arise, and frequent-flier programs can affect a merged carrier's customer base as well.
Nevertheless, Thompson's optimistic about this particular linkup based on AirTran's relative success in competing with Delta Air Lines at its Atlanta hub. "AirTran's management has managed the waters pretty well," she says.

 

[bestpilot]

What the heck did mnboyev say?

Phay Dude! Aint eeven knowin waht dat cat mnboyeee be sayin eether. Somma dem peeps aint like good at like communin wit da flightfo peeps!

 

[Lear70]

Hate to break it to you, Lear, but you can expect a representational vote if this merger goes through. Still have your ALPA card?

Actually... no. But I do have the copies of my 14 grievances still outstanding. Any recent updates on those?

I know, low blow... the grievance history here at AAI isn't much better from what I hear either, but you're barking up the wrong tree with ALPA here.

The anti-ALPA sentiment runs strong and deep at AAI, my bet it would be at least a 70/30 split in favor of the NPA even with the Midwest guys voting.

People are tired of ALPA.

 

[Kharma Police]

Hate to break it to you, Lear, but you can expect a representational vote if this merger goes through. Still have your ALPA card?

Will I still be able to keep my old ALPA number?

 

[likeitis]

Actually... no. But I do have the copies of my 14 grievances still outstanding. Any recent updates on those?

I know, low blow... the grievance history here at AAI isn't much better from what I hear either, but you're barking up the wrong tree with ALPA here.

The anti-ALPA sentiment runs strong and deep at AAI, my bet it would be at least a 70/30 split in favor of the NPA even with the Midwest guys voting.

People are tired of ALPA.

Hmm, who is NPA's attorney in your negotiations? Lets see a retired ALPA attorney. Hmm, how does NPA provide medical, negotiating, legal, security, accident investigations, etc. services to their members? Lets see they pay ALPA for all those. Hmm, how much cash does NPA have available in case that you may need to have a strike center are maybe even a strike? Lets see $0. Hmm, what is the difference in dues? Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't it the same? NPA was 1% but I think its now 1.95%. Why not get the milk straight from the cow? I'm interested in the direction ALPA takes after the first of the year with the new president.

 

[Whine Lover]

"With the premium ATA offered to Midwest shareholders, this is the kind of deal that's going to be in the can when all is said and done," she says. "I think Midwest would have serious trouble proving to its shareholders that it could create more value on a standalone basis."

DUH.

Expert analysis.


YKW

 

[mnboyev]

I dunno what I'm talking about either....But.. to explain.. No ALPA I say ye !... So... you fellas never heard of Hotdish A? .... Exactly what I'm talking bout... Probably never been ice fishing either... and never hear of Ol Swill.... C'mon my ATL flyin brothers. It's OK... I'm sure there are some southern tradition and cultural points I am not familiar with...

Let me define for the sake of discourse:

Hotdish- kinda midwestern mess of noodles, tomatoe sauce, and onions

Ol Swill- Old Milwaukee Beer.. pretty cheap beer.. but tastes great !

Ice Fishing- Sitting on a frozen lake.. enjoying the quiet peace..fishin/drinking

 

[crashpad]

Laugh and joke now, but the 2nd offering will land the hook in the final chapter of Midwest Express. I'm very curious to see how peacably the pilot groups will work out the integration of seniority. My guess is the AirTran side will take a bath, inspite of being the host company.

 

[mnboyev]

I've been up at the cabin for a few days... I could use a bath...

Ahh... seniority, it'll all work itself out. The lawyers will get rich, people will get pissed, and certainly... it wont be fair to all parties. But we can hope for the best.. and most importantly the pilots from both groups should play nice in the sandbox.. I say welcome and lets work together for the good of our future... period. Mid Ex is a great group of folks.....

I hope da NPA is talking to the MEC up dar in MKE eh !! I'll give the union hall a jingle to see waaas up !

 

[Ty Webb]

I'm very curious to see how peacably the pilot groups will work out the integration of seniority. My guess is the AirTran side will take a bath, inspite of being the host company.

And your guess is based on what . . . . . nothing.

AirTran has had 6 years of profitability and 20% annual growth. Our career expectations (key, according to ALPA) is for continued growth, quick upgrades, etc.

Midex has had five years of stagnation, furloughs, etc., and only recently got all the furloughees back and has hired a few pilots. In that same time, we more than doubled in size, and hired almost 900 pilots.

So, Crackpad, I ask you again . . . . what do you base your "guess" on, since it sure isn't based upon reason, logic, or past precedent?

 

[Ty Webb]

Hmm, how much cash does NPA have available in case that you may need to have a strike center are maybe even a strike? Lets see $0.

Ah, another "expert" spreading misinformation.

We certainly do have a strike fund. We also have a merger/contingency fund, both of which are now fully funded, and so we recently began reducing the assessment.

Why don't you stick to something you realy do have some knowlege of, like the nether parts of farm animals, and leave the dispensing of AirTran info to those of us who do know what we are talking about.

I'm interested in the direction ALPA takes after the first of the year with the new president.

Since most of your post was wrong, no reason to stop now, huh?

The President of the NPA is not going to be replaced with a management pilot, not unless we have hired too many "brain sturgeons" like yourself in the past 5 years. Guess we'll find out soon enough.


.

 

[crashpad]

I don't want to debate with Ty. He's one of 'the greats' on this board, IMHO.
Reason and logic never play a factor in this industry, but past precedent has shown pilots getting the shaft over and over. Midwests' pilot group is smaller and tighter than the rings around Uranus. If the same isn't true for Aitran, I fear the scales of fairness may be tipped in some local meeting place off Howell avenue. I have witnessed the seniority ladder kicked out inspite of having union represention.