Airlines say pilot fatigue rule would cost jobs

[Inconceivable]

From an outsider view point (I have never flown for the airlines), it seems as though these new duty rules will largely only affect the regional airlines. I would think that this would indeed drive up the typical regional airline CASM. I would think that this along with increasing fuel prices would help push the economics more in favor of the majors bringing more flying in house, and utilizing the regionals less. If it cost the same or more to outsource the flying, I would think that the majors would be more inclined to bring the flying back in house.

...which would be an incredible boon for the regional pilots

 

[General Lee]

From an outsider view point (I have never flown for the airlines), it seems as though these new duty rules will largely only affect the regional airlines. I would think that this would indeed drive up the typical regional airline CASM. I would think that this along with increasing fuel prices would help push the economics more in favor of the majors bringing more flying in house, and utilizing the regionals less. If it cost the same or more to outsource the flying, I would think that the majors would be more inclined to bring the flying back in house.

Bingo! And guys like Jon Ravioli and Joe Merchant don't want that, because they are looking for larger planes at their airlines without having to interview at the Majors, probably because each know that they wouldn't pass an interview.

If it is done in the name of safety, I am all for it, even if it unfortunately makes Regional Airlines more inefficient. And if that means cutting 8 daily RJs from OKC to Atlanta and replacing that service with 3 MD88s, sobeit.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Flyer1015]

Bingo! And guys like Jon Ravioli and Joe Merchant don't want that, because they are looking for larger planes at their airlines without having to interview at the Majors, probably because each know that they wouldn't pass an interview.

If it is done in the name of safety, I am all for it, even if it unfortunately makes Regional Airlines more inefficient. And if that means cutting 8 daily RJs from OKC to Atlanta and replacing that service with 3 MD88s, sobeit.



Bye Bye---General Lee

Of course, your Delta bretherns didn't think this way in the early/mid 90s. Pot calling the kettle black....

 

[IBNAV8R]

In other words, if it eliminates the bottom-feeders that got you to where you are AND we can put a safety sticker on it - all the better. Hate to burst your bubble, GLEE, but it's going to take a bit more than a few extra pilots to tip the scales.

6 oversold RJs are still going to trump 3 75%-full mad-dogs.

What WILL tip the scales is when regionals can't find the crews (at what they're willing to pay) to cover the flights.

 

[pilotyip]

Many different views on what will happen. When no one really knows what will happen because the final rule has not even been written. However there will be unintended consequences and for anyone to say they have figured these out is pure guess work..

 

[Smarta$$]

Many different views on what will happen. When no one really knows what will happen because the final rule has not even been written. However there will be unintended consequences and for anyone to say they have figured these out is pure guess work..

Hilarious YIP. Typical corporate lap dog that you are. If "no one really knows" and the "final rule has not been writen" then how can the ATA put out a headline like this?

"(Reuters) - Big U.S. airlines told the Obama administration on Thursday complying with a regulation in the works to combat pilot fatigue would cost $2 billion a year and over time cut 27,000 jobs directly tied to the industry."

Sorry, this is corporate opportunism trying to use the bad economy and the publics fears over jobs as a way to keep the least restrictive rest rules of nearly any industrialized nation. This will affect regional airlines primarliy, and they can't staff their cockpits adequately as it is. This will not have the negative effect that you suggest.

 

[ASApuppy]

They are using this and the current state of the economy as the reason for a downsizing. But, the real reason is pilot shortage. AMR just announced voluntary leave for 200 flight attendents. The reason, no pilots. They are forced to reduce capacity. With no new LCC ready to backfill the vacated routes, management is all onboard. They want to limit the number of "Walmart" pax in favor of the "Niemen Marcus" pax. If you can cut the seats on a route and effectively start a bidding war for seats.

It will be interesting what happens in ATL when Airtran becomes SWA. Will it be a full on fare war, or will they leave the routes alone and compete on services, i.e. free bags or first class.

I personally see the this as the sunset of the regional industry. The mainline operators are not going to shrink their own operations to the point that they can not fill their international flights. Most those flights operate on a daily schedule. There has not really been a downward pressure on regional costs. We are getting raises and fees paid have been getting smaller. But, the breaking point is about reached. There are not enough pilots applying to the regionals to meet their demand. Far cry from 13 years ago when people lined up out the door with $10k checks in their hand for a job. That oversupply is what I believe to be what started the downward pressure. The tide has swung. Even Gojets has to offer street captain hiring to cover their flying.

Another huge change in the last decade has been the increase in the cost to fly a general aviation plane. Seems like yesterday that I rented a C-152 for $50/hr wet. Now its over $100/hr. The rest of the world has not seen a 100% cost increase in the last decade. Except for oil.

I think the future is mainline partners asking their regionals how many flights they run each month, versus the other way around. Bigger planes on less frequency is the only option I see. I hope that no scope is relaxed. I am ready to interview.

 

[pilotyip]

Hilarious YIP. Typical corporate lap dog that you are. This will not have the negative effect that you suggest.

My that certainly makes things better. You will notice I said there are many different views, they are all guesses. Including the one you quoted. Only in hindsite will we be able to say what he impact was, that is not pro or anti management nor pro or anti pilot. Just a statement of fact. There will be unintended consequences, your guess may be better than mine, but it is still a guess, like where the stock market will be on 12-31-11

 

[bizicmo]

and then you are going to tell me that the increases in tickets prices due to increasing fuel costs in the spring of 2008 had no effect upon airline load factors?

Airline have increased ticket prices about 6 times this year, heck they just did one of the raises last week. Where are loads? All time highs. Yeah a real killer.

 

[doh]

More rest. Let the chips fall where they may.

 

[PBRstreetgang]

I am ok not filling the back of out planes with trailer trash rejects, if the trailer folk stay home because the ticket is 40.00 too high, good riddance!

 

[pilotyip]

I am ok not filling the back of out planes with trailer trash rejects, if the trailer folk stay home because the ticket is 40.00 too high, good riddance!

yea thats the way to do it, who need paxs anyway, they are just toads in the back. I heard that SWA makes its profit on 2-3 trailer trash per flight that buy the $40 ticket 2 months in advance like I do for my wife. We once owned a trailer, so it fits.

 

[surplus1]

The solution is really simple. There are two problems here; 1) There are too many regulations governing the airlines and, 2) There are too many labor unions interfering with management.

So, all you "conservative" pilots need to go out next November and elect some more Republicans. They will get rid of the regulations and remove the collective bargaining rights of the unions. That way you can all be paid what you're worth instead of the inflated wages of folks like General Lee and Yip. Then everything will fall into place and the airlines will make lots of money again.

Management doesn't need the FAA to telll them how to run the company and they sure don't need any union thugs to force them to pay 100K/yr for a job that's not worth nore than 50K tops.

Vote Republican!

 

[Axel]

The mathematics of regulation

The ATA's claim that the new regulation will be prohibitively expensive is more than a PR ploy. There is a complex mathematical formula that is applied to proposed regulation to determine whether it is implemented.

I can't rattle it off or provide specifics, but in essence (and very, very simplified), a human life is assigned a specific value in dollars. That value is inserted into an equation which also assigns a probability of a certain event occurring as well as the probability of the number of lives lost in the occurrence.

The dollar value of those lives is compared to the expense of implementing a regulation designed to mitigate the possibility of the event occurring as well as the statistical reduction in the number of fatalities.

What comes out to the right of the "=" signs are two values: the cost of the lives expected to be lost and the cost of implementing the regulation. If the dollar value of the cost in lives exceeds the cost of the reg, the reg is implemented. If the cost of the reg exceeds the cost of the lives, it is not.

The higher the cost of the reg ATA is able to convince lawmakers, the more weighted in their favor the equation becomes.

 

[doh]

Axel, sad but true...