The future airline industry from a furloughed pilot's point of view.
Delta and United have it wrong. Don't start up a new 'airline within an
airline'...at least not yet. Northwest got it right, but that was over a
decade ago. JetBlue, and Southwest are in their grove for now.
Imagine this, with the leverage Tilton has with labor agreements and other
protections under bankruptcy, he revolutionizes the airline industry.
Eighteen months from now, United has less that 200 airplanes, with over 150
of them being widebodies and less than 4000 pilots. 777 Captain is making
slightly more than an SWA Captain with more days off. The narrow bodies run
from hub to hub to get international passengers to their gateway cities.
Now, this is where pilots like myself, on furlough, are going to have to
bite the bullet. UA dumps scope clauses and everything else that prohibits
the expansion and use of commuters. Remember, it is a do or die situation.
United CANNOT go head to head with jetBlue, Southwest and AirTran with the
same working rules it has for it's international pilots. If they wish to
enter the point to point or LCC market, they will have to build capital from
their economic base (int'l flights) then revisit the idea during better
times with a different set of workrules. Using international profits to
establish and beat down the LCCs. And that is only if they wish to venture
into that market. Otherwise build your commuter base to get that passenger
from Durango, CO to Tokyo. Contrary to popular belief, SWA has been beaten
out of a market. Although it is not widely discussed, but Horizon was able
to get SWA to pull back on some of its Pacific Northwest routes. Cheaper
labor, better frequency. In the future there will be international
airlines, their commuters, and then the nationals, JB & SW. What did NWA do
a decade or so ago? When faced with bankrupcy, they focused on their
international flying and have since been accumulating commuters. They
own/partially own Pinnacle, Airlink and Mesaba if I understand correctly.
What is so great about SWA and jetBlue? I'll tell ya...WalMart and Home
Depot! Lets take a look at KMart vs WalMart or Home Depot. WalMart & Home
Depot pay their people a fair salary with some nice stock to go along with
it. KMart doesn't have to stock to offer, they aren't a growth stock,
they're not opening a new store every few minutes, so they have to pay their
people more to make up for it. In the same light that is how you get a $6
Million retirement at SWA. Problem for them is that there will come an end
to the rampant growth and then they will have to offer more than stock and
that will come in work rules and compensation. How do I know this? Because
WalMart has started to fight off union drives. WalMart stock of the 00's is
not the same at WalMart of the 80's. Similarly SWA stock isn't going to
grow at same rate forever, the Captain at SWA is much better off than the FO
at SWA in terms of retirement (Just like most other airlines). In addition
the SWA FO is not as well off as the jetBlue FO, because of the expansion
possibilities of jetBlue.
Who is in the catbird seat? jetBlue. I want you to build an
airline...fine. Now, I'm going to give you a bunch of money, new equipment
favorable work rules and the best footing possible in the airline
industry...see what you can do then.
Delta and United have it wrong. Don't start up a new 'airline within an
airline'...at least not yet. Northwest got it right, but that was over a
decade ago. JetBlue, and Southwest are in their grove for now.
Imagine this, with the leverage Tilton has with labor agreements and other
protections under bankruptcy, he revolutionizes the airline industry.
Eighteen months from now, United has less that 200 airplanes, with over 150
of them being widebodies and less than 4000 pilots. 777 Captain is making
slightly more than an SWA Captain with more days off. The narrow bodies run
from hub to hub to get international passengers to their gateway cities.
Now, this is where pilots like myself, on furlough, are going to have to
bite the bullet. UA dumps scope clauses and everything else that prohibits
the expansion and use of commuters. Remember, it is a do or die situation.
United CANNOT go head to head with jetBlue, Southwest and AirTran with the
same working rules it has for it's international pilots. If they wish to
enter the point to point or LCC market, they will have to build capital from
their economic base (int'l flights) then revisit the idea during better
times with a different set of workrules. Using international profits to
establish and beat down the LCCs. And that is only if they wish to venture
into that market. Otherwise build your commuter base to get that passenger
from Durango, CO to Tokyo. Contrary to popular belief, SWA has been beaten
out of a market. Although it is not widely discussed, but Horizon was able
to get SWA to pull back on some of its Pacific Northwest routes. Cheaper
labor, better frequency. In the future there will be international
airlines, their commuters, and then the nationals, JB & SW. What did NWA do
a decade or so ago? When faced with bankrupcy, they focused on their
international flying and have since been accumulating commuters. They
own/partially own Pinnacle, Airlink and Mesaba if I understand correctly.
What is so great about SWA and jetBlue? I'll tell ya...WalMart and Home
Depot! Lets take a look at KMart vs WalMart or Home Depot. WalMart & Home
Depot pay their people a fair salary with some nice stock to go along with
it. KMart doesn't have to stock to offer, they aren't a growth stock,
they're not opening a new store every few minutes, so they have to pay their
people more to make up for it. In the same light that is how you get a $6
Million retirement at SWA. Problem for them is that there will come an end
to the rampant growth and then they will have to offer more than stock and
that will come in work rules and compensation. How do I know this? Because
WalMart has started to fight off union drives. WalMart stock of the 00's is
not the same at WalMart of the 80's. Similarly SWA stock isn't going to
grow at same rate forever, the Captain at SWA is much better off than the FO
at SWA in terms of retirement (Just like most other airlines). In addition
the SWA FO is not as well off as the jetBlue FO, because of the expansion
possibilities of jetBlue.
Who is in the catbird seat? jetBlue. I want you to build an
airline...fine. Now, I'm going to give you a bunch of money, new equipment
favorable work rules and the best footing possible in the airline
industry...see what you can do then.
