Age 65, Seniority Stagnation

[densoo]

As someone said on another board, the music just stopped. Is age 65 going to pretty much freeze folks in their current seats/percentages for 3 to 5 years? I know some folks who upgraded to the larger equip/CA at a very junior spot thinking they would be moving up in seniority there quickly. It seems now they may be stuck there for years. I would think it is going to be hard to downbid back to quality of life since others will be doing the same thing or not bidding up to create vacancies. Any thoughts?

 

[pkober]

I don't think age 65 will cause everything to slowdown by exactly 5 years. Most who chose to stay probably won't stay all the way to 65. Just look at the health of most pilots at age 60.

Here at CAL we are planning to grow reardless of age 65 by around 4%. That won't change and those extra captains seats will still be available.

The new rule sucks. But it's life. My upgrade will slow slightly but not by a full five years.

 

[Razorback Flyer]

statistics

I read a statistic a few years ago that only like 60% of pilots ever make it to age 60 to begin with. (I don't remember the exact number, but it was between 40% an 60%.) Most either lose their medical, stop passing their checkrides, have prepared and invested well enough to bow out early, or just plain get sick of the airline lifestyle, and chose to pursue a different path in life.

So, assumming only 60% even make it to 60 - how many that make it that far can make it to 65? How many want to?

I think when you take the total number of pilots, I think the precentage that makes it to 65 - by choice or not - will be pretty low, and have a pretty small impact on career advancement.

 

[ATRCA]

I don't think age 65 will cause everything to slowdown by exactly 5 years. Most who chose to stay probably won't stay all the way to 65. Just look at the health of most pilots at age 60.

Here at CAL we are planning to grow reardless of age 65 by around 4%. That won't change and those extra captains seats will still be available.

The new rule sucks. But it's life. My upgrade will slow slightly but not by a full five years.

CAL is slowing the hiring quite a bit now. Rumor has it that there may be no more classes after the Jan 22nd class. I hope not.

 

[Furloughed80]

CAL is slowing the hiring quite a bit now. Rumor has it that there may be no more classes after the Jan 22nd class. I hope not.

That's not surprising. I don't buy all this BS about early medical outs, pilots not passing check-rides, and people leaving before 65. The medical standards are the same, meaning anyone with a pulse can pass. And why would anyone leave when they are at the top of the pay scale with the best QOL?

 

[Andy]

I read a statistic a few years ago that only like 60% of pilots ever make it to age 60 to begin with. (I don't remember the exact number, but it was between 40% an 60%.) Most either lose their medical, stop passing their checkrides, have prepared and invested well enough to bow out early, or just plain get sick of the airline lifestyle, and chose to pursue a different path in life.

So, assumming only 60% even make it to 60 - how many that make it that far can make it to 65? How many want to?

I think when you take the total number of pilots, I think the precentage that makes it to 65 - by choice or not - will be pretty low, and have a pretty small impact on career advancement.

I'm comparing the 2006-2007 UAL seniority list. On the 2006 seniority list, there were 833 pilots who will reach age 60 between 2008 and 2011. The number of pilots reaching age 60 between 2008 and 2011 on the 2007 seniority list is 824. I do not believe that the statistics you've offered are correct.

Age 65 will become the defacto retirement age. Just look at how few retire prior to age 60; do you REALLY think that it will be any different?

One final item. The US economy is starting to go into recession. Just look at the Thanksgiving passenger numbers. It only gets worse from here. There will be furloughs, but due to this age change, there won't be much attrition to mitigate furloughs. If you're near the bottom of the seniority list, you're forked.

 

[COpilot]

I don't think age 65 will cause everything to slowdown by exactly 5 years. Most who chose to stay probably won't stay all the way to 65. Just look at the health of most pilots at age 60.

Here at CAL we are planning to grow reardless of age 65 by around 4%. That won't change and those extra captains seats will still be available.

The new rule sucks. But it's life. My upgrade will slow slightly but not by a full five years.

I've been at CO for 20 years, believe me, this list just came to a big stop... I think 4% is right, but my guess is 4% the other way. (not negative thinking, just realistic)

Next bid will have realign, no vacancy until the 787 maybe fall. (IMO)

 

[Andy]

I've been at CO for 20 years, believe me, this list just came to a big stop... I think 4% is right, but my guess is 4% the other way. (not negative thinking, just realistic)

Next bid will have realign, no vacancy until the 787 maybe fall. (IMO)

Shack. The training float will get flushed, just like it did at USAirways back in 2000.

How's CAL's frozen pension plan? Does it penalize anyone staying past 60?
I'd expect to see a ton of senior AA pilots bail prior to any change in their pension plan, so hopefully that'll get a few more of their furloughees off of the street.

 

[pkober]

I don't think all the guys will stay until 65. Sure there are guys who still live at home and have no other life. They will stay. Plenty of guys want out. Guy have always retired prior to 60 and guys will retire prior to 65. If guys can make it work prior to 65 I think they would retire.

I hope your wrong about CAL growth. Hopefully we will still have our system bid this month but something tells me it might slip back into January.

 

[Truckdriver]

We all knew it was going to happen, but it looks like it may have happned at a bad time. If the economy wasn't slipping into a recession then growth would mitigate the old fellas sticking around. I think 95% of the guys will try and work until age 65 because of the lost pensions and lost pay they have experienced the last few years. I do believe most lists have stopped and some may even furlough. If we see mergers in the next year I think we will see some massive furloughs because there will be no retirements to trim the top. Right now, DAL looks good because all of our hiring is to cover growth. We only hade like 70-80 retirements scheduled in 08 due to the early outs and are predicting to hire 650 or more anyways. I guess we'll hire about 580 now unless the economy slows more or mergers happen.

 

[SuperFLUF]

.....How's CAL's frozen pension plan? Does it penalize anyone staying past 60?....

Yes it does penalize those staying past 60. However, the additional money that will go in to their DC plan and 401k as well as the change in the mortality tables will offset their losses.

Just based on how captains I've spoke with have changed their tune about staying as the reality of actually having the option has materialized, I expect many to stay here at CAL.

 

[Razorback Flyer]

I think 95% of the guys will try and work until age 65

I really don't think that many can or will stick around that long. Just from having talked to guys around our company, I'd say only about 20% that could stick around past age 60 really wanted and/or needed to. Granted - I work at a crappy regional - so that might have something to do with it. Alot of guys that I've talked to while jumpseating don't want to stay until 60.

Maybe I'm being too optimistic - I'd say we'll start finding out in the next few months, and know for sure in the next 12. In any event - the rule has been passed, and there's really nothing that can be done about that now. All you can do is make yourself as competitive as you can, and hope for the best. All this Griping and talking of lawsuits, etc. seems like a waste of energy, and a cause of stomach ache.

 

[Truckdriver]

I really don't think that many can or will stick around that long. Just from having talked to guys around our company, I'd say only about 20% that could stick around past age 60 really wanted and/or needed to. Granted - I work at a crappy regional - so that might have something to do with it. Alot of guys that I've talked to while jumpseating don't want to stay until 60.

I'd agree with that. Getting from 55 to 60 isn't that bad, but going from 60-65 will be alot tougher for some guys. I heard once the average age that an airline pilot dies is 67. Not sure if it's true, but the percentage that early out due to medical issues will be alot higher. I guess I should say that 95% of the guys will want to work until 65. I've flown with 5 Delta guys the past 5 months that are all 59. All 5 of them want to stay until age 65.

 

[nimtz]

With a large sick bank and high seniority on the best paying equip, these guys will stick around as long as they can. I don't buy the 'two more years and I'm done I swear' talk one bit...

 

[whymeworry?]

I don't think age 65 will cause everything to slowdown by exactly 5 years. Most who chose to stay probably won't stay all the way to 65. Just look at the health of most pilots at age 60.

Here at CAL we are planning to grow reardless of age 65 by around 4%. That won't change and those extra captains seats will still be available.

The new rule sucks. But it's life. My upgrade will slow slightly but not by a full five years.

I think you're being naive about the financial data our airline is looking at: the very real possibility of a recession in 2008. The growth will be more in block hours and seat miles, not in airframes. I think airframe growth will be flat for the next two years... or until the company has a firm idea of which way the economy is headed.

But... I hope I'm wrong and you're right.