ABX to compete with DHL?

[Whistlin' Dan]

Hey Dan,

Just curious....if you've flown a "little of everything" and have "lots" of flight time, and we (AStar) "are a no-growth company, and destined to remain one for the foreseeable future. The only progression through the ranks at Astar are coming through retirements, terminations, and guys who are fed-up with the whole thing and leaving for greener pastures. Leaving for ANY pastures, in fact.", how come yer still here?

Because it's also a "no-shrink" company...at least it is as long as you don't run afoul of management or their peons. If I could take 1/4th of my seniority to FedEx or UPS, I'd turn in my badge at the end of this trip, and I'd still be a Captain again within a year or two over there. As it is, it makes more financial sense for me to stay here until I retire (which it now appears will occur 5 years later than either of us thought it would).

I could leave right now, for more pay, right now, but I'm still betting on things working out. When Fying Tigers was going bankrupt, many of their guys punted, the ones who stayed are now senior captains at FEDEX. Nothing but dark skies ahead, but you're still here.....seems odd.

Well for starters, let's get one thing straight...when Flying Tigers was "going bankrupt," the senior guys certainly weren't leaving. Flying Tiger's financial woes came at a time when the major airlines (they weren't yet known as "Legacy" carriers) were hiring like gangbusters. That made it difficult for them to recruit the calibre of people they had been able to attract just a few years before (some were hired with only recip experience and an F/E written). But not many who had a few years on the seniority list at F/T quit outright, unless it was to go to a major.

The situation at Astar right now isn't much different, except that guys who DO have "a few years" on the seniority list ARE leaving. How many people would choose to work here, knowing that they'll spend the next 5-7 years at the panel and perhaps another 10 waiting on a left seat? Even Evergreen, for cripes sakes, is offering a window seat (and $50,000/yr) along with the prospect of 2-year upgrades-to-Captain to their new hires!

We may disagree on many things, AV8OR, but there are a few I think even you will have to concede;

1) Recent developments at DHL have made the chances of our ever again flying Internationally (at least to the extent we did in the '90's) extremely unlikely. Sorry guys, but there aren't going to be any DC-10's, MD-11's, or 747's flown by Astar pilots on our ramp, unless they first quit and go to Gemini or Polar. Ditto the 767-300's. That ship has done sailed, brother...

2) The DC-8-73's are growing unreliable and expensive to operate, and are poorly-suited to our present, domestic route structure. It's days in the Astar fleet are numbered.

3) The Airbus fleet brings it's own set of "issues." It's days too, are numbered.

4) Both aircraft are flown by 3-man crews. Their replacements will undoubtedly be flown by 2-man crews.


OK, my personal spin on this? The above factors, along with the raising of the retirement age to 65, will create an oversupply of pilots at Astar that will be improbably high for DHL to bear. If the "no furlough" clause survives into the next contract, you can expect the company to continue to use their "administrative resources" and "flight standards" to further pare their pilot roster. Welcome back to the 2 1/2 hour, "Robo-Pilot" and "Right Stuff" check rides of the 80's!

If the no-furlough clause isn't carried over into the next contract, there are going to be furloughs, they're going to come soon, and they're going to go deep. Either way, a$$es are going to hit the street. Merging seniority lists with ABX won't help, and in fact, may hurt us more than them.

I'd be interested, (seriously, no BS or flame-bait) in knowing why you think things are "going to work out?"

 

[flyinboxes]

"The situation at Astar right now isn't much different, except that guys who DO have "a few years" on the seniority list ARE leaving. How many people would choose to work here, knowing that they'll spend the next 5-7 years at the panel and perhaps another 10 waiting on a left seat? Even Evergreen, for cripes sakes, is offering a window seat (and $50,000/yr) along with the prospect of 2-year upgrades-to-Captain to their new hires!"

It is very different, we ALL have a few years on the list. Who else would leave? The majors AREN'T in a hiring mode and there pay and benefits and schedules are crap compared to ours.



Many, many, many would come to work here for $80,000 a year on the panel.

Recent developments make it less possible that guys will spend sooooo long on the panel, although it is still a possibility.

As for Evergreen, I would rather have 6 or 7 years on the panel at Astar than work at Evergreen. I believe most would, otherwise we would see a mass exodus for "Evergreen International".


"1) Recent developments at DHL have made the chances of our ever again flying Internationally (at least to the extent we did in the '90's) extremely unlikely. Sorry guys, but there aren't going to be any DC-10's, MD-11's, or 747's flown by Astar pilots on our ramp, unless they first quit and go to Gemini or Polar. Ditto the 767-300's. That ship has done sailed, brother."

I see it as the opposite, but time will tell.


""2) The DC-8-73's are growing unreliable and expensive to operate, and are poorly-suited to our present, domestic route structure. It's days in the Astar fleet are numbered."

3) The Airbus fleet brings it's own set of "issues." It's days too, are numbered.


Yes, and they will be replaced, your point?

" 4) Both aircraft are flown by 3-man crews. Their replacements will undoubtedly be flown by 2-man crews."

Yep

As for the "no furlough clause", I would imagine it will "survive" but what do I know?

 

[AV8OR]

Even Evergreen, for cripes sakes, is offering a window seat (and $50,000/yr) along with the prospect of 2-year upgrades-to-Captain to their new hires!

We may disagree on many things, AV8OR, but there are a few I think even you will have to concede;

1) Recent developments at DHL have made the chances of our ever again flying Internationally (at least to the extent we did in the '90's) extremely unlikely. Sorry guys, but there aren't going to be any DC-10's, MD-11's, or 747's flown by Astar pilots on our ramp, unless they first quit and go to Gemini or Polar. Ditto the 767-300's. That ship has done sailed, brother...

2) The DC-8-73's are growing unreliable and expensive to operate, and are poorly-suited to our present, domestic route structure. It's days in the Astar fleet are numbered.

3) The Airbus fleet brings it's own set of "issues." It's days too, are numbered.

4) Both aircraft are flown by 3-man crews. Their replacements will undoubtedly be flown by 2-man crews.


OK, my personal spin on this? The above factors, along with the raising of the retirement age to 65, will create an oversupply of pilots at Astar that will be improbably high for DHL to bear. If the "no furlough" clause survives into the next contract, you can expect the company to continue to use their "administrative resources" and "flight standards" to further pare their pilot roster. Welcome back to the 2 1/2 hour, "Robo-Pilot" and "Right Stuff" check rides of the 80's!

If the no-furlough clause isn't carried over into the next contract, there are going to be furloughs, they're going to come soon, and they're going to go deep. Either way, a$$es are going to hit the street. Merging seniority lists with ABX won't help, and in fact, may hurt us more than them.

I'd be interested, (seriously, no BS or flame-bait) in knowing why you think things are "going to work out?"

Alright, here ya go......

First, on Evergreen.....If a pilot's been hired here in the last two years and is in the 20's or 30's and wants to go get intl./heavy time so they can go to FedEx or UPS, and is willing to sacrifice money and QOL for a couple years to do it, I don't think it's a bad move. If they do that and don't get to the dream job, they'll probably never see the money or QOL potential they would have potentially realized at AStar again. So, that's why I and others need to see how things are gonna shake out.

Second, several of your predictions are made on presumptions we most likely disagree on....namely:

I think you believe there'll never be a one airline DHL in the US again. That there's no way we'll get those 767's because Polar will get them. You may be right. I think there's a chance if Polar does get them, there's a chance either we'll buy Polar, or Polar will buy us. How will that shake out? Don't know. What I do know, is that three years ago, when JD wanted to buy ABX, DHL said "you can't do that", and now, three years later, they've bought back into us, are apparently in favor of JD's offer, or (whatever he's really trying to accomplish). And though we've all heard "DHL will never allow AStar and ABX to merge because they want us pilots to fight to the death" apprently, that's not true, AND they've bought into the most expensive of the two, in total cost of the two airlines. Is all this gonna shake out in our favor? I don't know, but I'm not gonna leave just cause I don't have the master plan and movement scares me. If a person's scared if there's no movement, and then scared if there's movement, they oughta get a dog.

Last, here's why I'm cautiously optimistic:

A. We've apparently gone from "gonna shut you down" to "gonna give you money and have seat on your board"

B. While we're not growing at any great lengths, we ARE being optimized. We are a more efficient airline than we were, and eventually, once we're at maximum capacity we'll either stagnate or grow. I think that will depend on DHL and if they've learned anything.

C. We've gone from possibly not exsisting to trying to buy a heavy MX hangar in TPA to employ 400 personel by 2010. WHY? We've NEVER had our own heavy MX hangar. We've never had our own hangar period. Doesn't sound like a company getting ready to close it's doors.

Now that's just a few things, and they may not pan out, but somebody's spending money on AStar that's not be recouped if we close the doors. Does that mean everythings rosey...no, but it's steady progress in a positive (IMO) direction. And if it all goes south, I've kept my powder dry for next adventure in life.

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

The majors AREN'T in a hiring mode and there pay and benefits and schedules are crap compared to ours....Many, many, many would come to work here for $80,000 a year on the panel...Recent developments make it less possible that guys will spend sooooo long on the panel

That 80K/yr doesn't kick in until the 5th year, by which time (according to pay and upgrade info over on that "other" message board) a pilot at Evergreen (the lowest paying ACMI I checked) would be making 90K/yr. Tradewinds and Kalitta and would be paying 107K and 110K respectively, and JetBlue 121K/yr. The schedules are what they are, driven at most companies as they are here...by seniority and the FAR's more than anything else.

As for the "many" who would come here to sit at the panel, that may be true. But for most it would be career suicide. Here's why...

For one thing, they're going to lose whatever currency they have as a pilot. How many times have we all seen a guy who spends several years at the panel, only to have problems moving to the right seat? That's an important factor to consider, especially if this isn't the "job of their dreams," and they planned to do some more interviewing (and sim-evals) before getting that company logo tattooed on their right a$$-cheek.

What's worse, IMHO, is that unless they plan to remain PFE's, the time they log as an S/O will count for almost nothing in this profession. The last airplane that was built in this country that required a flight-engineer (a 747-300, FWIW) was delivered in 1990. The experience one gains as an S/O is not "PIC," "SIC," or "International Ops." It's not even "Heavy Jet" time. It's just time. Time spent away from family, time that contributes nothing to betterment of one's flying skills or the attainment of a better job. Most young guys who want to make careers of flying for one of the "Big 3" express carriers would be better off spending those years driving a delivery truck for one of our competitors and flying a little on the side. Seriously.

OK, so let's say a guy doesn't want to leave this company. Let's say he loves night-flying, loves working for corrupt management, flying "classic" airliners, living in a corn field, working for a no-growth company, or whatever. How does the money stack up?

Again, using the upgrade and hourly rates published over on that "other" message board, I came up with these cumulative totals, based on the first 5 years of service;

Astar - $329,000
Evergreen - $367,000
Kalitta - $401,000
Tradewinds - $407,000
JetBlue - $464,000 (I included an LCC for those Regional guys who might be thinking of making the jump)

If you use the same data to project the numbers out to 10 years, the difference in gross income becomes even more onerous.

As you can see, even if Astar grants an across-the-board, 10% raise in the next contract (similar to what UPS and FedEx were awarded), it still leaves our guys playing catch-up to other ACMI carriers, moneywise.

As for "developments that will make it less likely that guys will be spending so long in the back seat" I'm not sure what those are. Or has Dougie-boy been seen taking large numbers of employee files into his office, along with a magnifying glass?

 

[flyinboxes]

You are comparing CAPTAIN pay to SO Pay. I see your point on upgrade time but that can slow and speed up anywhere, even here. Based on your upgrade times Your pay numbers are probably correct. I don't know how exactly you got them, but I assume you used FO pay for the first 2 years and then Capt. pay after that. That is fine. I do know that a 5 year SO at ASTAR makes 80.31 an hour while a 5 year FO at Evergreen makes 64.00. The monthly guarantee at EVG is 65 and at ASTAR its 64 per bid period or roughly 69 a month. Now the upgrade is quick so its not a realistic comparison, but the upgrade is quick for a reason.

Let's travel down the road 15 years

EVG captain makes 133.00 an hour at 65 hours giving him 8645 a month plus 345.00 401 match equaling just over 9000 a month.

AST captain makes 185.46 (727) or 203.66 (300,8) giving the latter 14,052 a month plus 15% 401k company match giving him just over 16,000 a month. No to mention the fact that in order to get that 16K he need not show up to fly 1 single trip. There I am done. I think I will "wait it out" here for my shot at the 16k. I am young and have plenty of options and time as well.

Anyway, this conversation is useless. I'm happy, I make good money, and my neighbors ask if I'm laid off half the time. Life is good, and I don't live in a corn field. Cya around.

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

You are comparing CAPTAIN pay to SO Pay. I see your point on upgrade time but that can slow and speed up anywhere, even here.

I compared Captain pay to S/O pay only because that's where a person hired in the last 5 years at any of those companies is likely to be today.

As you pointed out, upgrades can "slow and speed up anywhere." For that reason alone, it's impossible to make a dollar-for-dollar comparison between any 2 airlines. But if you compare them over time, certain generalities become apparent. One is that while our published hourly rates are pretty close to industry standard, our career earnings are no better than that of most other ACMI carriers.

Based on your upgrade times Your pay numbers are probably correct. I don't know how exactly you got them, but I assume you used FO pay for the first 2 years and then Capt. pay after that.

I used straight S/O pay for Astar, since that is the seat in which a new hire is likely to spend his first 8 years at the company. For the other carriers, I used the least favorable conditions that would still account for them making Captain in the time reported (starting at F/O or S/O, whichever paid less, for example). At Jet Blue, I assumed that a person spent his first 2 years in the Embraer, was seat-locked for another 2, then went to Airbus Captain. I did not add the "guaranteed 5% profit sharing" at JB simply because I forgot to.

Believe me, I wasn't trying to "massage" the numbers. I didn't need to...they speak for themselves.

I didn't post the 5-year snapshots for UPS or FedEx, but they're pretty close to the JetBlue numbers.

I do know that a 5 year SO at ASTAR makes 80.31 an hour while a 5 year FO at Evergreen makes 64.00.

But why would Evergreen even have any 5-year F/O's, when it only takes 2 years to make Captain?

A more appropriate comparison would be typical 5-year employees at both companies. At Astar, he/she would be a S/O making $80/hr. At Evergreen, they would be a 747 Captain making $90/hr, while at Kalitta, they'd be doing the same job, but for $110/hr.

At Evergreen or Kalitta they would also be typed in the 747, and logging heavy, International time. True, not everybody's cup of tea, but a real inducement for guys with higher career aspirations.

The monthly guarantee at EVG is 65 and at ASTAR its 64 per bid period or roughly 69 a month.

I used 1,000 hrs/yr, as that's pretty close to what I've averaged over my career. That's pretty much what it is everywhere else, from what I can gather.

Now the upgrade is quick so its not a realistic comparison, but the upgrade is quick for a reason.
Let's travel down the road 15 years

EVG captain makes 133.00 an hour at 65 hours giving him 8645 a month plus 345.00 401 match equaling just over 9000 a month.

AST captain makes 185.46 (727) or 203.66 (300,8) giving the latter 14,052 a month plus 15% 401k company match giving him just over 16,000 a month. No to mention the fact that in order to get that 16K he need not show up to fly 1 single trip.

OK then, we'll look at 15 years. but we're not going to look at a condition that exists at a specific point in time, because the financial value of our careers are not defined by a single point in time, but by cumulative career earnings. Again using the hourly rates and time-to-upgrade info posted on that "other" website, we'll look at total earnings for the first 15 years at various ACMI carriers. I'll warn you in advance, you're not going to like this...

Gemini - $1,510,000
Evergreen - $1,531,000
Astar - $1,563,000 (finally surpasses Evergreen late in the 14th year)
Tradewinds - $1,618,000
Kalitta - $1,674,000
Jet Blue - $1,853,000 (again, just for S&G's, and because they're a LCC)

So you see, that while our hourly rates are well above those of our ACMI brethren, the actual amount of income we take home is middle-of-the-road at best, and in some cases somewhat less than so-called "scumbag" operators.

There I am done. I think I will "wait it out" here for my shot at the 16k... I'm happy, I make good money...and I don't live in a corn field.

If you're happy, that's all that matters...

 

[abxaviator]

And coversely, if you're not happy, why have you not gone to one of the cherries you've been holding up as so much better?

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

And coversely, if you're not happy, why have you not gone to one of the cherries you've been holding up as so much better?

That's simple. If you look at the above numbers again, you'll see that "career break-even" for Astar pilots doesn't occur until they've reached 15 to 20 years of service (in comparison to Evergreen and Jet Blue, respectively).

So to answer your question, I'm still there because I'm past the break-even point.

 

[rotor&wing]

So to answer your question, I'm still there because I'm past the break-even point.

whistle britches isn't here, he just pretends to be. go back and read several of his post, like this one posted
11-20-2006, 19:34

"[FONT=&quot]I still have several friends working for Astar. I hope you (and they) all get one he11 of a contract, because this is probably the last "good" one either you or ABX will get."

there are several others that contradict him.

it just never changes huh whistle britches?
[/FONT]

 

[AV8OR]

whistle britches isn't here, he just pretends to be. go back and read several of his post, like this one posted
11-20-2006, 19:34

"[FONT=&quot]I still have several friends working for Astar. I hope you (and they) all get one he11 of a contract, because this is probably the last "good" one either you or ABX will get."[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]there are several others that contradict him. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]it just never changes huh whistle britches?[/FONT]

Well Whistlin.......I must say that is remarkable.....given your last little comment on McKeen and employee records to pour over to find termination prospects.....mmm sure sounds like Brannon to me. Sad really.