AA to recall

[beagle pilot]

AA has already won that one in court.

Have any details?

 

[beagle pilot]

Like other airlines AA has a large number of retirements coming up. This will create a large amount of list movement and upgrades in the very near future. TTC could drop dramatically in a few years.

Maybe. There are two ways to fill vacancies - hire more pilots or park more airplanes.

A couple of important questions:

1. How many of AA's 250+ MD-80's will still be around in 10 years?

2. How many of those aircraft will be replaced 1-for-1?

A couple of facts to ponder:

1. AA pilot staffing is about 10 pilots per aircraft. Park 250 aircraft and replace 150 of them equals 1000 pilot vacancies.

2. PBS. Depending on implementation, PBS increases "pilot efficiency" by ~15%. Fifteen percent of 8,738 active pilots is 1310 pilots.

3. Work rules. Currently APA flight hours are capped. If pilots can fly an extra 10 hours each, then approximately 8 pilots can do the work of 9 pilots making another 900+ pilot job vacancies not needing to be filled.

Barring something catastrophic happening either at AMR or throughout the industry, I seriously doubt there will be a great number of additional furloughs. However, as the above numbers point out, there is a strong potential for pilot vacancies due to retirements going unfilled for a few years.

Sorry guys, but wearing my management hat, this is what my crystal ball says the future looks like for most legacies, not just American. Eventually every airline has to hire, but when they will hire is still a guessing game depending on their future actions.

 

[AceOnTheRiver]

AA has already won that one in court.

True, but that isn't what I was saying.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Sounds like DAL will hire about 400 by the end of 2011, starting this year.

cliff
GRB

 

[aa73]

A couple of facts to ponder:

1. AA pilot staffing is about 10 pilots per aircraft. Park 250 aircraft and replace 150 of them equals 1000 pilot vacancies.

2. PBS. Depending on implementation, PBS increases "pilot efficiency" by ~15%. Fifteen percent of 8,738 active pilots is 1310 pilots.

3. Work rules. Currently APA flight hours are capped. If pilots can fly an extra 10 hours each, then approximately 8 pilots can do the work of 9 pilots making another 900+ pilot job vacancies not needing to be filled.

Number 1, I can possibly foresee happening only with a tremendous spike in fuel prices. Otherwise, parking that many a/c would cause AA to lose a LOT of market share.

Number 2 (PBS) is DOA and not even making it to the negotiating table. PBS is a SCAM and a MAJOR concession. Number 3 (increased hours) is also highly unlikely, as it is a major concession that the membership knows will prevent furloughed guys from coming back.

 

[satpak77]

2015 is the year folks

Beagle does have some points. The MD-80 fleet, discussed in this article , average age now is 20 years old, meaning the average year of entry into the fleet was 1990. Accompanying hiring boom ensued, and assuming Kit Darbys perfect profile new hire age of 28 years old, those guys are mandatory in 2027.

So we know, outside of anything else (fuel prices, Gulf War-4, etc etc crystal ball), that:

1. The "1990 gang" is mandatory, bye bye, no questions asked in 2027, if the entire group was hired at age 28. If hired at age 30 to 35, now we are seeing mandatories in 2020-2025, or ten years out folks, from TODAY. If the 10 pilot per plane statement is correct, we are talking what? 2500+ pilots? All mandatory, and all at once?

2. The MD-80 fleet, AA's bread and butter domestic and sometimes international (DFW-MEX) people hauler, will be 30 years old at the same time the "1990 gang" is gone. What will happen in ten years (crystal ball stuff). Fuel? AD's ? FAA imposed restrictions on the plane (Noise, etc.) Will the 737 fully replace the MD-80 one for one?

3. What is the average age of the furloughed group? This too will play into hiring and fleet expansion.

My thought as an outsider is five years from now, 2015 (not that far off), AA HQ management is gonna have some fleet/hiring planning to do.

** Assuming they need to fill 3000 slots, how many interviews must occur to vet and interview candidates and put good candidates in class? 6000 actual interviews? That is 1 guy hired for every 2 interviews. What was Southwest in the past? Like 3 guys hired for every 10 interviews?

So the actual number of interviews at AA could be huge number.

This can be very good news for the job market....

 

[Flightdawg]

Number 1, I can possibly foresee happening only with a tremendous spike in fuel prices. Otherwise, parking that many a/c would cause AA to lose a LOT of market share.

Number 2 (PBS) is DOA and not even making it to the negotiating table. PBS is a SCAM and a MAJOR concession. Number 3 (increased hours) is also highly unlikely, as it is a major concession that the membership knows will prevent furloughed guys from coming back.

ASA just approved PBS and likes it. Didn't TWA have it and like it too?

Is it a concession to be allowed to work more hours? I can see having a cap on how many hows they can schedule you, but allowing pilots to pick up extra flight time is a contract improvement, not a concession.

 

[aa73]

ASA just approved PBS and likes it. Didn't TWA have it and like it too?

Is it a concession to be allowed to work more hours? I can see having a cap on how many hows they can schedule you, but allowing pilots to pick up extra flight time is a contract improvement, not a concession.

PBS at AA would be a DISASTER. TWA pilots liked it because the union and the company agreed that the union would run it. AA would NEVER hand over those keys to APA.

Regarding your second point - working more hours is a concession, period. ESPECIALLY with pilots on furlough. We are capped to 78 hours (lines) with the option to pick up to 83. Anything more will require less pilots on the property. That is a concession.

 

[Flightdawg]

PBS at AA would be a DISASTER. TWA pilots liked it because the union and the company agreed that the union would run it. AA would NEVER hand over those keys to APA.

That makes more sense. It isn't PBS that is the problem, it's your airline.

Regarding your second point - working more hours is a concession, period. ESPECIALLY with pilots on furlough. We are capped to 78 hours (lines) with the option to pick up to 83. Anything more will require less pilots on the property. That is a concession.

A concession to be allowed to fly more hours? No, it isn't. You are right about it would create less jobs.

Unions want to increase pay and increase the number of jobs, but they usually can't do both. They have to make a choice. If your union chooses jobs over pay, it is your option, but it's not a concession.

 

[aa73]

A concession to be allowed to fly more hours? No, it isn't. You are right about it would create less jobs.

Unions want to increase pay and increase the number of jobs, but they usually can't do both. They have to make a choice. If your union chooses jobs over pay, it is your option, but it's not a concession.

Let me put it in a way you can understand.

More hours worked = less time off. Less time off = a concession.

Many pilots want to work more hours... why, to make more money? That's what a pay raise is for. The whole object of the pay raise is to keep the same work rules while making more money. This has been management's "reasoning".... "hey, you want to make more, let's just raise the monthly average up to 83, with pick up to 88." Bam, you now have a concessionary contract.

I can tell you that a monthly increase in hours, whether lines or pick up, will result in a No vote for an overwhelming majority of AA pilots. Now, give us our pay restoration and schedule us more efficiently during our 78 hour months (read: not so much sit time) and we'll gladly accept.

Don't fall so easily into management's line of reasoning that your pay raise comes along with increased work hours. They would love for you to believe that. Just take a look at UAL and CAL contracts, and how much they work a month. And you say that's not a concession?