AA to recall

[aa73]

You care. So do your colleagues. Otherwise they wouldn't be continually bashing Eagle and blaming its pilots for your problems such as the APA did in its scope presentation to the NMB: http://www.mediafire.com/?dtm4nuymwmn

Need your opinion on something. Scenario: Pilot from airline A attacks pilot from airline B. Pilot from airline B counter-attacks then the Communication Chairman of airline A's pilot union accuses the pilot from airline B of being a trouble-maker. This same Communication's representative never, ever disagrees with his own pilots no matter how ludicrous their statements or the veracity of their position. What do you think of a person who acts like that? Should they be trusted as being honest and unbiased or should it be understood they are simply another propaganda instrument of their union; Good cop/bad cop sort of thing?

Add: Pilot C (me)... does not really give a crap, because Pilot C (again, me) actually has a life outside of the airlines and these boards.

So, to answer your question, no, I don't really care about all the name calling, and I've never been one to bash AE pilots. If APA does, not my problem, and certainly not yours, either - but you choose to make it so.

 

[beagle pilot]

So, to answer your question, no, I don't really care about all the name calling, and I've never been one to bash AE pilots.

I hope not because your brethren are working overtime on it. I know you can't control them any more than I can some of my fellow pilots, but the difference is you'll see me go against them when they do. The hazard of being a moderate is being shot at from both sides. I accept this problem because I feel it is the right thing to do. I freely admit to making mistakes at times, but as you can see by the majority of my posts, especially those were the APA isn't concerned, I do my best to be moderate in my viewpoints.

Add: Pilot C (me)... does not really give a crap, because Pilot C (again, me) actually has a life outside of the airlines and these boards.

If you say so.

 

[AceOnTheRiver]

Of the 244 Flowups 60 are ineligible because of the TTC computation that Nicolidiot pulled out of his A$$ 10years.
As I read the award the decision to go or not must be made before May 24 and the "slots" can NOT be passed down.
After the 35 come over it will be a long wait before AA recalls and when they do there ARE over 800 senior to any AE flowup who can come before the 2/28 furloughs.

Any AE pilot that comes across will be on reserve for several years when CC and reinstatement rights are added to the bidding picture.

As all things associated with AMR it looks good on paper but the reality sucks.

I looked at the list and saw only a handful affected by the 10 year TTC because Nic said it started when they should have flowed. That would put it around 7-8 years TTC.

 

[C-150ETOPS]

Like other airlines AA has a large number of retirements coming up. This will create a large amount of list movement and upgrades in the very near future. TTC could drop dramatically in a few years.

AA Retirements
4/11/2010 - 12/31/2010 0
01/01/2011 - 12/31/2011 0
01/01/2012 - 12/31/2012 5
01/01/2013 - 12/31/2013 136
01/01/2014 - 12/31/2014 197
01/01/2015 - 12/31/2015 258
01/01/2016 - 12/31/2016 248
01/01/2017 - 12/31/2017 283
01/01/2018 - 12/31/2018 356
01/01/2019 - 12/31/2019 456
01/01/2020 - 12/31/2020 545
01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 605
01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 658
01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 705
01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 720
01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 734
01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 707
01/01/2027 - 12/31/2027 588
01/01/2028 - 12/31/2028 497
01/01/2029 - 12/31/2029 472
01/01/2030 - 12/31/2030 410​

Thanks for the numbers Kazoo. I am more than intimately familiar with them after 20 years of sucking the seniority wind at AA which means only having USair East to look at to make oneself feel good.

As another poster said, it really comes down to Nicalidiot pulling a dingleberry off his arse and calling it TTC. Giving a decision any respect on the basis as to "when they should have flowed" is the greatest joke given this industry. What counts is todays chitty numbers, not some "what I should have held" B.S. Maybe Nicalidiot can get me 10 years of back earnings because I was told; 1. I will make Captain at "X" date, and 2. "You'll never get displaced from AA Captain."

At a minimum, TTC should be calculated yearly. As a side note, I can't figure out why any6one would here unless they were very young for their seniority. for a veeerrrryy long time they will be condemmed to chit seniority, no summer vacation, crap bidding and probably a change to a crappy base.

This argument almost seems like Grady arguing with Fred Sanford as to which car is better, the 20 year old rusty Lincoln or the 20 year old Caddy.

 

[macdu]

Out of those far right column retirement numbers how many are guys that are currently furloughed? If that includes the furloughs then those numbers are inflated in a way that makes it look as if there will be more openings than there really are. I am 49 and 200 numbers from the first recall notice, and, am not counting on ever making it back.
On another note with regards to the Eagle guys(ironically I am ex Eagle too) I think they would have to be insane to take the flow-up. I can't for the life of me, think of one good compelling reason to give up what they have as very senior, line holding captains who are making descent $$. God, what did I just type? But it's true. How times have changed. They better think long and hard about accepting because it will turn their lives upside down from what they are used to.

 

[AceOnTheRiver]

Thanks for the numbers Kazoo. I am more than intimately familiar with them after 20 years of sucking the seniority wind at AA which means only having USair East to look at to make oneself feel good.

As another poster said, it really comes down to Nicalidiot pulling a dingleberry off his arse and calling it TTC. Giving a decision any respect on the basis as to "when they should have flowed" is the greatest joke given this industry. What counts is todays chitty numbers, not some "what I should have held" B.S. Maybe Nicalidiot can get me 10 years of back earnings because I was told; 1. I will make Captain at "X" date, and 2. "You'll never get displaced from AA Captain."

At a minimum, TTC should be calculated yearly. As a side note, I can't figure out why any6one would here unless they were very young for their seniority. for a veeerrrryy long time they will be condemmed to chit seniority, no summer vacation, crap bidding and probably a change to a crappy base.

This argument almost seems like Grady arguing with Fred Sanford as to which car is better, the 20 year old rusty Lincoln or the 20 year old Caddy.

I thought AA doesn't use TTC anymore in hiring? Wasn't it Kudwa that dropped that towards the end of the last hiring at AA? The number is just plain old age descrimination since it cannot be accurate to guess when someone is going to make CA.

 

[Flightdawg]

Out of those far right column retirement numbers how many are guys that are currently furloughed?

The list is based entirely on age 65, not length of time with the airline. You'd have to look at your seniority list and sort it for age to figure out is any are furloughed. Are you furloughed now?

To give you an idea how difficult it is to predict retirements which determines TTC, here is another projection of AA age 65.

American Airlines pilots turning 65 in each year through 2025
Retire Year
Count
2012
4

2013
64

2014
98

2015
135

2016
134

2017
143

2018
183

2019
225

2020
281

2021
318

2022
358

2023
370

2024
361

2025
380

 

[Neubyfly]

I looked at the list and saw only a handful affected by the 10 year TTC because Nic said it started when they should have flowed. That would put it around 7-8 years TTC.

If the TTC starts when they should have flowed then the retirement age when they should have flowed should also apply. Wasn't mandatory retirement 60 back in June 2007?

 

[AceOnTheRiver]

If the TTC starts when they should have flowed then the retirement age when they should have flowed should also apply. Wasn't mandatory retirement 60 back in June 2007?

Good luck with that one. lol

 

[igneousy2]

I thought AA doesn't use TTC anymore in hiring? Wasn't it Kudwa that dropped that towards the end of the last hiring at AA? The number is just plain old age descrimination since it cannot be accurate to guess when someone is going to make CA.

AA has already won that one in court.

 

[beagle pilot]

AA has already won that one in court.

Have any details?

 

[beagle pilot]

Like other airlines AA has a large number of retirements coming up. This will create a large amount of list movement and upgrades in the very near future. TTC could drop dramatically in a few years.

Maybe. There are two ways to fill vacancies - hire more pilots or park more airplanes.

A couple of important questions:

1. How many of AA's 250+ MD-80's will still be around in 10 years?

2. How many of those aircraft will be replaced 1-for-1?

A couple of facts to ponder:

1. AA pilot staffing is about 10 pilots per aircraft. Park 250 aircraft and replace 150 of them equals 1000 pilot vacancies.

2. PBS. Depending on implementation, PBS increases "pilot efficiency" by ~15%. Fifteen percent of 8,738 active pilots is 1310 pilots.

3. Work rules. Currently APA flight hours are capped. If pilots can fly an extra 10 hours each, then approximately 8 pilots can do the work of 9 pilots making another 900+ pilot job vacancies not needing to be filled.

Barring something catastrophic happening either at AMR or throughout the industry, I seriously doubt there will be a great number of additional furloughs. However, as the above numbers point out, there is a strong potential for pilot vacancies due to retirements going unfilled for a few years.

Sorry guys, but wearing my management hat, this is what my crystal ball says the future looks like for most legacies, not just American. Eventually every airline has to hire, but when they will hire is still a guessing game depending on their future actions.

 

[AceOnTheRiver]

AA has already won that one in court.

True, but that isn't what I was saying.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Sounds like DAL will hire about 400 by the end of 2011, starting this year.

cliff
GRB

 

[aa73]

A couple of facts to ponder:

1. AA pilot staffing is about 10 pilots per aircraft. Park 250 aircraft and replace 150 of them equals 1000 pilot vacancies.

2. PBS. Depending on implementation, PBS increases "pilot efficiency" by ~15%. Fifteen percent of 8,738 active pilots is 1310 pilots.

3. Work rules. Currently APA flight hours are capped. If pilots can fly an extra 10 hours each, then approximately 8 pilots can do the work of 9 pilots making another 900+ pilot job vacancies not needing to be filled.

Number 1, I can possibly foresee happening only with a tremendous spike in fuel prices. Otherwise, parking that many a/c would cause AA to lose a LOT of market share.

Number 2 (PBS) is DOA and not even making it to the negotiating table. PBS is a SCAM and a MAJOR concession. Number 3 (increased hours) is also highly unlikely, as it is a major concession that the membership knows will prevent furloughed guys from coming back.

 

[satpak77]

2015 is the year folks

Beagle does have some points. The MD-80 fleet, discussed in this article , average age now is 20 years old, meaning the average year of entry into the fleet was 1990. Accompanying hiring boom ensued, and assuming Kit Darbys perfect profile new hire age of 28 years old, those guys are mandatory in 2027.

So we know, outside of anything else (fuel prices, Gulf War-4, etc etc crystal ball), that:

1. The "1990 gang" is mandatory, bye bye, no questions asked in 2027, if the entire group was hired at age 28. If hired at age 30 to 35, now we are seeing mandatories in 2020-2025, or ten years out folks, from TODAY. If the 10 pilot per plane statement is correct, we are talking what? 2500+ pilots? All mandatory, and all at once?

2. The MD-80 fleet, AA's bread and butter domestic and sometimes international (DFW-MEX) people hauler, will be 30 years old at the same time the "1990 gang" is gone. What will happen in ten years (crystal ball stuff). Fuel? AD's ? FAA imposed restrictions on the plane (Noise, etc.) Will the 737 fully replace the MD-80 one for one?

3. What is the average age of the furloughed group? This too will play into hiring and fleet expansion.

My thought as an outsider is five years from now, 2015 (not that far off), AA HQ management is gonna have some fleet/hiring planning to do.

** Assuming they need to fill 3000 slots, how many interviews must occur to vet and interview candidates and put good candidates in class? 6000 actual interviews? That is 1 guy hired for every 2 interviews. What was Southwest in the past? Like 3 guys hired for every 10 interviews?

So the actual number of interviews at AA could be huge number.

This can be very good news for the job market....

 

[Flightdawg]

Number 1, I can possibly foresee happening only with a tremendous spike in fuel prices. Otherwise, parking that many a/c would cause AA to lose a LOT of market share.

Number 2 (PBS) is DOA and not even making it to the negotiating table. PBS is a SCAM and a MAJOR concession. Number 3 (increased hours) is also highly unlikely, as it is a major concession that the membership knows will prevent furloughed guys from coming back.

ASA just approved PBS and likes it. Didn't TWA have it and like it too?

Is it a concession to be allowed to work more hours? I can see having a cap on how many hows they can schedule you, but allowing pilots to pick up extra flight time is a contract improvement, not a concession.

 

[aa73]

ASA just approved PBS and likes it. Didn't TWA have it and like it too?

Is it a concession to be allowed to work more hours? I can see having a cap on how many hows they can schedule you, but allowing pilots to pick up extra flight time is a contract improvement, not a concession.

PBS at AA would be a DISASTER. TWA pilots liked it because the union and the company agreed that the union would run it. AA would NEVER hand over those keys to APA.

Regarding your second point - working more hours is a concession, period. ESPECIALLY with pilots on furlough. We are capped to 78 hours (lines) with the option to pick up to 83. Anything more will require less pilots on the property. That is a concession.

 

[Flightdawg]

PBS at AA would be a DISASTER. TWA pilots liked it because the union and the company agreed that the union would run it. AA would NEVER hand over those keys to APA.

That makes more sense. It isn't PBS that is the problem, it's your airline.

Regarding your second point - working more hours is a concession, period. ESPECIALLY with pilots on furlough. We are capped to 78 hours (lines) with the option to pick up to 83. Anything more will require less pilots on the property. That is a concession.

A concession to be allowed to fly more hours? No, it isn't. You are right about it would create less jobs.

Unions want to increase pay and increase the number of jobs, but they usually can't do both. They have to make a choice. If your union chooses jobs over pay, it is your option, but it's not a concession.

 

[aa73]

A concession to be allowed to fly more hours? No, it isn't. You are right about it would create less jobs.

Unions want to increase pay and increase the number of jobs, but they usually can't do both. They have to make a choice. If your union chooses jobs over pay, it is your option, but it's not a concession.

Let me put it in a way you can understand.

More hours worked = less time off. Less time off = a concession.

Many pilots want to work more hours... why, to make more money? That's what a pay raise is for. The whole object of the pay raise is to keep the same work rules while making more money. This has been management's "reasoning".... "hey, you want to make more, let's just raise the monthly average up to 83, with pick up to 88." Bam, you now have a concessionary contract.

I can tell you that a monthly increase in hours, whether lines or pick up, will result in a No vote for an overwhelming majority of AA pilots. Now, give us our pay restoration and schedule us more efficiently during our 78 hour months (read: not so much sit time) and we'll gladly accept.

Don't fall so easily into management's line of reasoning that your pay raise comes along with increased work hours. They would love for you to believe that. Just take a look at UAL and CAL contracts, and how much they work a month. And you say that's not a concession?