747 Splits in Two on T/O

[belchfire]

I was told that ICAO wants to standardize using "reject."

Yeah, but that is just because so many people have refered to the A-380 as an Abortion. Had people refered to the giant abortion as a reject the campaign would be to standardize Abort as the official callout...

 

[avbug]

You can't go around condemning everyone for having an opinion or paradigm which differs from yours.

I don't. Just those who are wrong.

Speculation and guesswork is wrong, and as it represents ignorance, has no place in aviation.

"I guess we'll make it. It certainly looks long enough."

"I guess we're light enough to make it. The airplane isn't squatting down too badly."

"Perhaps that rough engine was just a fluke. I guess it will be fine."

Yada, yada, yada. Guesswork is asinine and idiotic.

Spouting off on the subject when one is entirely clueless regarding the facts is only an embarassment to the speaker, and a bloody stupid thing to do. further, it only fuels more rumor and speculation, which serves nothing.

 

[belchfire]

I don't. Just those who are wrong.

You are correct-as far as you go...

Speculation and guesswork is wrong, and as it represents ignorance, has no place in aviation.

I would submit to you that anytime there is a first flight on a new airframe, any new airframe-from something like a Cessna 170 (when it was new) to the SR-71 to the Dreamliner-there is a great deal of speculation that freight airlines would buy the A-380F...(whoops! guessed wrong there!) As a matter of fact the weather forcasts that we base our alternate requirements on in day to day operations are in fact speculation.

You are painting with too broad a brush...

"I guess we'll make it. It certainly looks long enough."

"I guess we're light enough to make it. The airplane isn't squatting down too badly."

"Perhaps that rough engine was just a fluke. I guess it will be fine."

Yada, yada, yada. Guesswork is asinine and idiotic.

Well, you define a few places where taking a wag at the outcome is foolish but you leave out a miriade of possibilities where the best of educated choices based on hours of engineering work or computer modeling could (and have) end up being wrong.

Spouting off on the subject when one is entirely clueless regarding the facts is only an embarassment to the speaker, and a bloody stupid thing to do. further, it only fuels more rumor and speculation, which serves nothing.

Well, you rather beat around the bush to get at it but you finally hit the nail on the head!

Having said that I will submit that even you, given your massive technical poweress and tendancy towards being correct most of the time could at some point-based on the information that you had at the time either have in the past (and escaped unscathed) or could at some point in the future make a choice that results in an investigation where after twelve months of gestation many experts from several fields could find you culpable-even though it looked good based on the information you had at your disposal.

 

[avbug]

Having said that I will submit that even you, given your massive technical poweress and tendancy towards being correct most of the time could at some point-based on the information that you had at the time either have in the past (and escaped unscathed) or could at some point in the future make a choice that results in an investigation where after twelve months of gestation many experts from several fields could find you culpable-even though it looked good based on the information you had at your disposal.

Which is, of course, the antithesis of an informed decision, and clearly makes the argument against guesswork.

Regardless of the eventual discovery of additional data, a decision made based on facts is not at all guesswork, and at a minimum a good faith effort at a fully informed decision.

What we have here, instead, is wild speculation that ranges from "the first officer did it" to UFO's, terrorists, referrals to Lockerbie, and some idiotic guesswork involving bad maintenance, airplanes splitting apart on their own, captain and first officer actions (with no information one way or the other, mind you), and my favorite so far, detective work based on irrelevant comparisons with pictures found on airliners.net.

Without regard to the former, one can make no parallels, inferred or otherwise, to making a safety related decision in flight based on the facts to which one is privy at the time, and what's going on here...making 100% guesses with NO facts upon which to make a remotely informed observation or interpretation thereof.

Further, what may be estimable after the fact by those considering the decision and the evidences upon which it was based, is entirely irrelevant to this discussion and to the popularly received concept of speculation and guesswork. Certainly more so to rational, mature, professional discussion of any productive nature, or of any positive worth.

Simply put, guesswork, particularly within the framework of this discussion and this mishap, is asinine.

 

[b707guy]

Simply put, guesswork, particularly within the framework of this discussion and this mishap, is asinine.

Sorry, but so is continued harping on the subject. How 'bout just being thankful that the crew survived the ordeal. Hopefully, their careers will, too. The answers will come.

 

[avbug]

Sorry, but so is continued harping on the subject.

No one is "harping" on the subject. It was brought up in a post, to which I replied. The subject post was an intelligent one, well written, and deserved a response (which it received). Further, as several posters have come forth to state that speculation is not only warranted but apropriate, there is nothing unwarranted about replying to the same.

Try to keep up.

 

[McNugget]

One could argue it was a successful RTO as nobody was killed. The rest is just bent or broken metal - replaceable.

Agreed. They rejected for a reason deemed appropriate at the time, and nobody was killed. I'll go ahead and speculate that maybe the airplane would not have flown if they continued, and the damage to life and property below could have been awful.

 

[fob727]

McNuggett...you ARE kidding with your avatar?

 

[McNugget]

Heil Woerth!

 

[fob727]

Right......