70 buck a barrel oil matched by rising airfares...talk of rationing.

[B-J-J Fighter]

Life After the Crash is not the book to read if you worry a lot like myself. The book is pretty much all doom and gloom. In his opinion it's too late.

 

[Dangerkitty]

In the 70's gold went up above 800 and silver to 50? Gold is currently $600 and silver is $13

Demand for these metals and copper is beginning to outstrip supply and reserves are getting harder to replace every year like what is happening with oil. People are saying we might be also reaching PEAK Precious metals.

Why did gold and silver go so high in the 70's?
--An energy crisis which is happening again.
--Inflation which went out of control came because of the energy crisis which will happen again.
--Troubles with the Arab countries and Iran. Sound familiar??


Other things that will cause gold and silver to continue upwards in the next few years:
--Peak oil this time, not just an energy crisis, the mother of all energy crises is coming this time.
--Peak gold and silver?
--This time we'll also soon have a sinking dollar.
--The housing bubble will soon burst when the ARM loans readjust over the next two years.
--Trade imbalance is over 6% of GDP.
--The savings rate of Americans is less than 0%, where it hasn't been since the Great Depression.
--The U.S. govt. and its people are in a LOT of debt.
--The baby boomers are retiring and will cause deficits to skyrocket even more or will cause taxes to have to increase to pay for their Soc. sec. and medicare payments which have been spent over the years by our retarded politicians.

Gold and silver will go up a lot in the next couple years. It has just begun. This I believe very strongly in.

You should listen to Jim Puplava's radio show at:
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

Jim has become very bullish the last 5 years on commodities mainly because of his peak oil beliefs and he's helping a lot of people make a lot of money.

He's a great economist that links what will happen when the oil prices keep going up and all the above factors begin to affect the economy. His latest interview, found at the above website, is with Peter Terzakian who wrote "Thousand Barrels a Second" which is one of the newest Peak Oil books out. It's worth a listen.

Jet

Jetflyer,

Your posts are beginning to become laughable. Do you even remember the energy crisis of the 1970's? I am sure you dont, because if you did you would understand that we are nowhere near, not even close to an energy crisis today.

Infact, for years and years and years we have been buying fuel much less than what it should have cost if fuel had stayed with inflation. At $3.00 a gallon gasoline we are just now getting back to where the cost of fuel was in the 60's and 70's adjusted for inflation.

Trouble with the Arab countries and Iran? Oil production is all they have this is only sabre rattling.

Where you come up with all this crap is beyond me. You have almost no idea what you are talking about. Sure sometimes a blind squirrel gets a nut every now and then. Thats what you have stumbled across with you gold and silver buys. Better get out before the correction occurs.

 

[jetflyer]

Danger,
Whatever dude.
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

B-J-J,
Is your avatar a picture of you?? If so dayumm. Heck the end of the world is coming right!? Maybe I can talk my wife into some swinger action if you're interested?? I'll just say that we have to do it once before the end of the world as we know it comes.

Plus we can talk about peak oil all night long....

Oh and if that's not you and you're some hairy chested overweight dude, then uh, "How about them Bears?!"

Jet

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Dangerkitty:
In the 70s, there was NO energy crisis. Saudi just decided to cut us off.

Now, we have a problem, because worldwide demand is very, very close to worldwide supply. Last year, producers produced an excess of 2.5 mbpd. Now, we are down to only 1.7 mbpd excess capacity. Every DAY, oil demand goes up, largely fueled by the huge rise in China's economy. I saw a picture of China's new superhighways. It was scary! What's worse is that India is only 10 years behind China, and closing fast.

OPEC can NOT produce any more oil, at any meaningful rate related to the amount of increasing oil demand. Mexico's largest oil field, the 2nd largest in the world, just went into decline. The North Sea is in massive decline.

The oil companies, despite today's sophisticated technology, can't replace the oil they pump with new reserves, which means in the future they'll pump less oil than they do today.

Worse, for us, companies like UAL are planning on oil going below $50/barrel to make money. Does it look like $50 will happen at ANY time in the future?

I really like my job/house, etc., but I'm worried. In fact, I'm so worried, I'm not even reading ANY books about Peak Oil, or anything resembling them, as I'm black enough already. Too much blackness is counter-productive.

Cliff
YIP

 

[A Squared]

In the 70's gold went up above 800 and silver to 50?

Right. Silver went up because of the Hunt Brothers' bid to corner the worlds' supply of silver. As I recall, it didn't work and they went broke. SIlver got quite a bit chaper after tha.

 

[jetflyer]

ATP,

Is there really spare capacity right now of 1.7 mbd? I thought spare capacity was at 0 and we were using every barrel produced.

Have you read anything on Russia lately?

Russian oil executives are saying now that they will not be able to increase oil production as much as they thought and that the world shouldn't depend on them for extra supplies.

Many are saying Russia is about to decline pretty hard because projects into Western Siberia have not really begun and current fields are past their prime.

Russia going down will be bad news. So would Saudi Arabia.

Don't worry though. Be happy

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

A Squared,

Yea it was like 4 bucks until like 2-3 years ago. It's been on a tear lately as demand is outstripping supply now and is above 13. They can't get the silver out of the ground fast enough.

My forecast for 5 years from now: $3000 gold, $150 silver

Let's see how close I get.

Now if the bird flu kills off 5% of the world's population demand will not outstrip supply and the world will see deflation in my opinion.

Same as in oil. If the bird flu kills off literally demand for oil, if it goes human to human transmission, oil prices will crash because of excess oil on the market.

WHO experts say we have a 50/50 chance of the bird flu going H2H. Besides a bird flu outbreak, I don't see anything stopping precious metals.

I do wonder if a world wide great depression would depress demand, but I don't think if there is another depression it will be a deflationary one this time, and I think people will flock to precious metals.

Jet

 

[Dangerkitty]

Danger,
Whatever dude.
Jet

Whatever dude? That's it? Whatever dude?

 

[jetflyer]

Whatever dude

 

[Dangerkitty]

Whatever dude

Why would people flock to precious metals during a deflationary depresssion?

Are you going to answer that with a whatever dude?

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

Russia going down will be bad news. So would Saudi Arabia.

Don't worry though. Be happy

Jet

Saudi is presently in decline. The reports will show this in about 6 months.

Life will go on, but in a slightly different form.

CE

(but will it increase the demand for beer?)

 

[jetflyer]

CE,
You serious?

I've seen where the Saudis recently admitted that their current fields would be in decline by 8% if they weren't increasing the number or drilling rigs.

If they truly do go into massive decline like Cantarell in Mexico, the North Sea's oil, or Australia's we and every other American are truly gonna need to go buy some beer!

Could we then see demand outstrip supply in beer and have a beer price super spike? Geeze this makes so much sense to me, I'm going to have to hoard beer along with my oil now!

Oh and Danger read my sentence again. It was definitely poorly written, but what I meant was I don't see the next depression being deflationary but inflationary if we have one.

Adios,
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

New Fed Chief Ben Bernanke is even being nicknamed by many as Hellicopter Ben, because he said in the past that to keep deflation from happening he would drop money from helicopters.

He would increase the money supply as much as he has to, to stop deflation.

Did you see that Ben also stopped M3 or the increase in money supply from being shown to the public at the end of March?

Many predict he's going to try to inflate away the government's and American's debt by printing money and depressing the U.S. dollar.

Stocks will go up in price, so will oil, gold, commodities, etc. but the U.S. debt will be significantly less significant if the dollar tanks.

So as Bernanke gives the public face that he's fighting inflation by raising interest rates, he's printing money at a record pace which causes inflation!

The last published M3 figure showed an annual money supply increase of 8.5% which was published in March. We'll never know again what the M3 is. It will now be a secret.

One more reason to buy commodities....

Jet

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

Afraid so, The problem with the Peak Oil effect is that it never shows itself
until 2-5 years after it actually happens.

On a long flight from Argentina, I had the pleasure of being seated next to
an oil company employee. He was an advisor to a company that finds fields
and exploits them. He told me about the technologies to bring oil to the
surface and the costs involved.

This Gent was in Brazil negotiating a contract to drill off shore Brazil. They have
the largest untapped oil reserve in the world. It is also the last large reserve
of its kind.

The last large reserve was supposed to be Nigeria. China won that contract.
The US contractors were smart to let that one go. It is not producing
anywhere near what was hoped for.

Is it bad?
yes

Is it REALLY bad?
Yep

Human sacrifice, dogs and cats, living together, MASS HYSTERIA!!??
um...no. Not yet.

Expect moderate turbulance.

CE

(*pulls ejection handle*)

I'll miss it.