Here's the way I see it shaping up:
John and Paul will start building support over the next couple of weeks. Moak (DAL) will put his feelers out at the Executive Board meeting next week to see if he has any support from other carriers. If so, he'll go to his MEC, and if he can get more than half to support him, then he'll probably throw his name in the hat. Those will probably be the top three candidates. I think the MEC Chair from FDX might run, but I don't think he has much support.
In a two-way race between Paul and John, I see Paul coming out ahead. If you throw Moak into the mix, it becomes murky as to how he would split votes, so that's a tougher call. I think Moak would be a big mistake, so I'm hoping he decides not to run. Having a Delta guy in the top spot sends the wrong message to pilots both within and outside ALPA, as it makes it look like the 12,000 pilot behemoth is in control of everything, even though that's not true under the ALPA structure. I think it would make organizing efforts very difficult, and it would turn many pilots at B-Carrier against the Association.
Wow... Ok, I appreciate that. I think Moak has higher aspirations. Like CEO.