'02 Fleet Additions & '03 Projections

[chase]

From the Freedom Net:

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Final Aircraft Delivery of ’02 Brings Fleet to 375

Southwest accepted delivery of our 23rd and final aircraft of the year last week when N431WN was added to the fleet. The Boeing 737-700 was the third aircraft delivered in December. April was the busiest month for deliveries, when six new planes were added to our colorful fleet. No aircraft were added in March or June, while three months saw deliveries of three aircraft–January, February, and December.

For 2002, there also were three 737-200 retirements, so Southwest had a net gain of 20 aircraft for the year. Our fleet comprises 27 -200s (7.2 percent of the total), 194 -300s (51.7 percent), 25 -500s (6.7 percent), and 129 -700s (34.4 percent). Southwest has 17 deliveries scheduled for 2003, with six planned -200 retirements.

 

[CoopDog]

Chase,

If I remember correctly, there were 9 new-hire classes in '02, right? And there was a net gain of 20 airplanes in '02.

If SWA is only getting a net gain of 11 airplanes in '03, and taking into account about 63-65 age 60 retirements, they'd be looking at about 185 or so new hires for '03 (based on approx 11 pilots per airplane), right? This would equate to about 9 classes again.

It does seems that they under-hired by about 70-75 pilots in '02 for some reason, based on a net gain of 20 airplanes and about 30 or so age 60 retirements (seems like they should have increased staffing levels by 250 pilots in '02 based on those numbers). Are you of the opinion that the staffing level deficit for the accelerated deliveries in the 4th quarter of '02 will be made up by additional new hire positions in early '03? Or is there even a current staffing level deficit?

If this were the case, is it reasonable to project roughly 250 new hires in '03? Or is 180-ish more likely? This, of course, assumes that all heck doesn't break loose with the oil prices, economy, airport security, and anything else that stands in our way of sitting in a SWA new-hire class this upcoming year (I'm pretty much tired of thinking about that stuff).

Just curious on your thoughts. I've been patiently waiting with all the rest of these guys here in the pool, and unemployment runs out on Saturday. I just need to figure out how long I can live off of savings and any part-time work I can get before we're forced to liquidate. Any idea when we can get a new EFC time? There is no alternate with Wx above mins right now.

Coop
(holding and running low on fuel)

 

[Snoopy58]

PMFJI, but I'll offer this scrap of info for what it is worth. At the moment, pilot manning is actually pretty fat... very little open time to be picked up, very little JA (junior available -- get called to fly on a day off) going on. Good news for guys who don't try to pick up much & dislike JA's, but bad news for guys who try to make the extra $ by picking up... and for those waiting for classes. I'm not particularly smart on the #'s involved, so I'll leave that to Chase et al, but I don't see any signs of record-breaking hiring in the near future, unless another part of the equation changes (i.e. taking lots more deliveries, stock shoots up & lots of early retirements, etc).

As one guy from schedule planning (builds the flight schedules months in advance, plus acts as a "think tank" on expansion strategy, new cities, new routes, etc etc) put it when we got a Q&A with him in New Hire training, "You are working for about the most conservative airline in the country, so don't expect us to go out on a limb anytime soon over this." The question at the time dealt with taking advantage of post-9/11 opportunities, and his answer was that SWA would probably go slow rather than risk over-extending by being hyper-aggressive. Proved to be a reasonable strategy. His point was about "the most conservative airline in the country," but since we were still in class in the recent aftermath of 9/11, we saw some links between SWA being conservative and the fact that "you are WORKING for..." them. As frustrating as it can be to see slow, cautious movement some times, it probably is a better approach in the long term. Not that that is particularly comforting for the good folks on the outside looking in.

Sorry I can't offer you better news. I'd love to see you guys all come on as quickly as possible, and it will be an honor to fly with you when you do. One bright spot, planes have been extremely full the last couple of days.

One tidbit of info, take it as another small part of the big picture. All the best all the poolies -- hope 2003 brings you much good news!

Snoopy