No growth at SW until 2016 now

[meanstreak]

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/20...to-2015-to-reach-capital-goal.html?cmpid=yhoo

 

[waveflyer]

Not surprising considering the Max schedule
Focus is still on -800's, replacing -300's and 717's with used market, and then growing with Max's.

What the article doesn't say is that we are getting aircraft daily utilization back up in the 12 block hour range- something we haven't seen since shoulder cuts around the meltdown. And from a pilot perspective, block hours is what we care about

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

Wavey,

You know better. This is called managing expectations. They are telling you np expansion "unless" you agree to a quick deal. This deal will include growth they originally planned.

 

[waveflyer]

Exactly.
I agree with that 110% William
And so do most of our pilots. Joke about it every day bc it's that amateur.
Who knows the real play with so many groups in negotiations, but it appears mgmt simply doesnt understand that half their pilot group aren't relative newbies anymore. I'm junior 8 years in and thoroughly content to wait out there game. And at $160k/year+ if I worked harder! we can afford to

 

[N1atEcon]

They know that the 15% ROIC will be met so they just moved the carrot.

 

[redflyer65]

Exactly.
I agree with that 110% William
And so do most of our pilots. Joke about it every day bc it's that amateur.
Who knows the real play with so many groups in negotiations, but it appears mgmt simply doesnt understand that half their pilot group aren't relative newbies anymore. I'm junior 8 years in and thoroughly content to wait out there game. And at $160k/year+ if I worked harder! we can afford to

Dead on Wave.

I'm willing to wait them out and call their bluff. Bring it.
No concessionary deal here.

 

[PCL_128]

Bluff? "The first deal will be the best one." Whatever happened to that nonsense?

 

[redflyer65]

Bluff? "The first deal will be the best one." Whatever happened to that nonsense?

You guys were going to get one bite at SLI apple. You choked on it and then got deal number two. Which we told you would be worse.

Section Six is a different animal....of course you know that.

Any other questions?

 

[PCL_128]

No, no questions. There's nothing to be learned from such a mental midget. Just pointing out the hypocrisy and idiocy. Carry on.

 

[redflyer65]

No, no questions. There's nothing to be learned from such a mental midget. Just pointing out the hypocrisy and idiocy. Carry on.

And I described the difference, but you decided to dodge and deflect even though you knew the answer as you posted the hypothetical question. There's no hypocrisy or idiocy. This just makes you look like a idiot.

There was never going to be any arbitration like you were saying..ever. One try. Isn't that how it played out, after we told you time and time again.

Big difference sitting on 79/hr FO pay versus 152/hr while working on a contract, right PCL?

 

[slaquer5]

Wavey,

You know better. This is called managing expectations. They are telling you np expansion "unless" you agree to a quick deal. This deal will include growth they originally planned.

Bingo.


Or another purchase. Right sizing


Either way not good

 

[Luv2BFlyin]

There was never going to be any arbitration like you were saying..ever. One try. Isn't that how it played out, after we told you time and time again.

Does it bother you that mgmt had no intention of following the agreement as you are purporting? Obviously, in this case, no. However, many of us think you are in for a rude awakening as Section 6 progresses. I've said it before, please prove us wrong. At least drag it out past January 2015 so we have a chance to vote no.

 

[Flying the Line]

Also, SWA can use the no new airplanes as a reason to cut the rest of the small AirTran cities that are unprofitable in the Southwest model.

 

[waveflyer]

This record is skipping on repeat.

And c'mon PCL, I thought you were soo experienced in negotiating.

Isn't the real difference between the two situations simple leverage?

 

[fr8doggie]

This record is skipping on repeat.

And c'mon PCL, I thought you were soo experienced in negotiating.

Isn't the real difference between the two situations simple leverage?

What leverage do you think the SWAPA pilots have?

 

[scarlet]

Need to clean up the language in scheduling (ability to drop trips, flexibility when days are red. (as long as you work the day that is restricted regardless of 2,3,4 day trip) Cuts down on sick calls hello?) Get rid of Net Zero, Go to a red/green day system. Get rid of number of days you can drop into open time. The trading system is from the 1980s. Would decrease sick calls....

Profit sharing into your 401K or could elect an actual check...like other major airlines!

Larger % of day line trips. Not sure the %, but CAL back in the day built alot of day lines, Gordon didn't like huge hotel cost and some crew members really wanted to be home at night.

 

[PCL_128]

And c'mon PCL, I thought you were soo experienced in negotiating.

Isn't the real difference between the two situations simple leverage?

Yes, the difference is leverage. The AirTran pilots had a lot of leverage. You have, at least at the moment, incredibly little. The pilot group is completely unwilling to do any industrial action because they don't want to make the company look bad to the public, you already have pay rates near the top of the narrowbody spectrum, your company's profits are trailing all of your competition, you have the largest domestic route network which would have a significant impact on the economy if it were to shut down, etc. I could go on and on. Organic leverage is nonexistent for you. The only thing you could do is generate artificial leverage through industrial action (picketing, billboards, radio ads, etc.), but every SWA pilot I talk to feels that that is anathema. As long as that attitude prevails, you'll get nowhere.

 

[Tripower455]

Wavey,

You know better. This is called managing expectations. They are telling you np expansion "unless" you agree to a quick deal.

Yup........

This deal will include growth they originally planned.

Yup.... and we'll buy it. Again.

 

[Tripower455]

Need to clean up the language in scheduling (ability to drop trips, flexibility when days are red. (as long as you work the day that is restricted regardless of 2,3,4 day trip) Cuts down on sick calls hello?) Get rid of Net Zero, Go to a red/green day system. Get rid of number of days you can drop into open time. The trading system is from the 1980s. Would decrease sick calls....

Actually, most of those idiotic restrictions were put in during the last contract, and almost all of them were considered "gains" by SWApA!

Larger % of day line trips. Not sure the %, but CAL back in the day built alot of day lines, Gordon didn't like huge hotel cost and some crew members really wanted to be home at night.

As this will be another concessionary contract, I'm sure we'll see lots more turns in future lines....

 

[waveflyer]

What leverage do you think the SWAPA pilots have?

More than air tran, and that ultimately comes down to the psychology of the group. We are happy to wait out our situation. Air tran wasn't willing to not be Swapa

C'mon PCL, that's all nice, but have you seen the global market for pilots. Other legacies are leapfrogging us, a shortage is looming. They're already hiring bc we had a dozen pilots leave for delta. Swa mgmt had more leverage in 2009 than today.
And we are the largest domestic carrier with record profits. Just bc the legacy cycle is on the upswing of their wild swing tendencies, doesn't mean we are performing bad.
The biggest leverage mgmt gave us? They gave themselves raises....

 

[fr8doggie]

More than air tran, and that ultimately comes down to the psychology of the group. We are happy to wait out our situation. Air tran wasn't willing to not be Swapa.

In order to have leverage you need to have the collective will to force management to do something it does not want to do. I don't believe that SWAPA has that. I speak from the experience of 24 years at FDX. Whether we were non-union, ALPA I, FPA, or ALPA II we really haven't been very willing to put hard pressure on management to achieve our goals. The only time we got close (1998, 97% strike vote) our union (FPA) leadership totally collapsed.

How long have you been negotiating for your next contract? In the end you will accept a "flattish" contract and your union leadership will spin it as a win.

It's your culture.

Fr8-

 

[nwaf16dude]

More than air tran, and that ultimately comes down to the psychology of the group. We are happy to wait out our situation.

When the company is "happy to wait" the pilots being happy to wait isn't much leverage.

Serious question, not trying to be a smart-ass...Is there something that SWA wants from SWAPA that makes them less than happy to wait?

 

[Tripower455]

Is there something that SWA wants from SWAPA that makes them less than happy to wait?

Not at the moment. We gave them everything they've asked for via side letters, most DURING section 6 "negotiations".........

At least we got something tangible out of them.... oh, wait, no we didn't.

 

[fr8doggie]

Not at the moment. We gave them everything they've asked for via side letters, most DURING section 6 "negotiations".........



At least we got something tangible out of them.... oh, wait, no we didn't.

You know, you are probably going to wake up one morning and find a horse's head in your bed.

You are the only RSW pilot I have ever heard of who does not seem to worship at the altar of "All Things SWA".

 

[Tripower455]

You know, you are probably going to wake up one morning and find a horse's head in your bed.

You are the only RSW pilot I have ever heard of who does not seem to worship at the altar of "All Things SWA".

Never have and never will. I'm a pragmatist. SW was a great company, and a great place to work for many years, but things are changing, and not for the better IMHO. Like most of the other airlines I've worked for, the only thing I look forward to when going to work anymore is seeing my friends. We've still got a good bunch of folks working here, and that includes the former AT folks (with a few exceptions...... on both sides)

SWApA has and continues to be an arm of the company. Every so often, a few rabble rousers make it past the Kool Aid stand, but typically, they're painted as malcontents, rendered ineffective and shown the door on the next election cycle. The list of former SWApA officers that are now in managerial positions is staggering, well, to anyone except the typical SWApA pilot.

What other union negotiates SL letters, that gain NOTHING (a few were even concessionary) for it's members, DURING contract negotiations? Then they sell the SLs to the membership as is they were somehow beneficial to the group, and of course, the sheep gobble it up and vote yes.

After over 2 years of "negotiating", the company makes a "regressive" (concessionary) offer, and people walk around shocked/insulted. The sad thing is that had that offer been a TA and put to a membership vote, these same folks would've passed it without batting an eye. The even sadder thing is that they will vote yes on an even worse offer, 2 years from now.....

 

[PCL_128]

We are happy to wait out our situation.

And so is management. Hence, no leverage. They don't need a new contract. You want one.

Other legacies are leapfrogging us, a shortage is looming. They're already hiring bc we had a dozen pilots leave for delta. Swa mgmt had more leverage in 2009 than today.

I agree that you are in a better position today than in 2009. But that will only translate to real leverage if you're willing to engage in industrial action. If you're not willing to pick up that picket sign because you're too loyal to the company, then you're left with nothing.

And we are the largest domestic carrier with record profits. Just bc the legacy cycle is on the upswing of their wild swing tendencies, doesn't mean we are performing bad.

I didn't say that you're performing bad. But you're not performing like the other legacies, and that's what the NMB is going to look at. The company is going to make the case to the Board that you don't have the cost competitiveness that you used to, and without the global route network to get the highest yielding business passengers, they won't be able to grow unless they regain that cost advantage. They'll show the Board your profits in the few hundred millions range, and put them on a bar graph with Delta's eclipsing them by several times. The Board will nod and tell SWAPA to get real. That is the reality of bargaining under the RLA. Welcome to the club. The days of asking for a raise and getting it are over.

The biggest leverage mgmt gave us? They gave themselves raises....

Sorry, but that gave you exactly ZERO leverage. The Board doesn't care.

 

[vixin]

You are the only RSW pilot I have ever heard of who does not seem to worship at the altar of "All Things SWA".

Add me to that list. Heck I have my strike fund saved up. I know Ill never get to use it, but its their. Enough to sit on my butt for at least 2 years.

The biggest leverage mgmt gave us? They gave themselves raises.... Sorry, but that gave you exactly ZERO leverage. The Board doesn't care.

Our management actually didn't take a raise this year. Plus the board gives GK his raise. He doesn't just give to himself.

If you're not willing to pick up that picket sign

I will get in line. It could be you me and 1700 FATS for all I care. Maybe a couple hundred RSW's. But I wouldn't count on that. They are still having a FLAP vs speed break discussion on the SWAPA forum that has more importance.

 

[SWA Bubba]

Well, here's some leverage for you-- Southwest has several hundred 737-Max's on order. Our CBA doesn't allow anyone to fly them yet; the CBA would have to be opened and terms agreed upon. The verbiage says that any other plane other than the 737-300, -500, -700, or -800 requires a reopener. Those planes are supposed to hit our pavement in early 2017, so they'll want agreements sometime in 2016. According to GK, they are the future of Southwest.

I guess we'll see what happens.

Bubba

 

[vixin]

And our weak ass union will send 21-0 just to fly shiny new jets. I bet they can get us another useless GDO.

 

[PCL_128]

Well, here's some leverage for you-- Southwest has several hundred 737-Max's on order. Our CBA doesn't allow anyone to fly them yet; the CBA would have to be opened and terms agreed upon. The verbiage says that any other plane other than the 737-300, -500, -700, or -800 requires a reopener. Those planes are supposed to hit our pavement in early 2017, so they'll want agreements sometime in 2016. According to GK, they are the future of Southwest.

I guess we'll see what happens.

Bubba

I'm too lazy to dig through your contract for the answer, but most CBAs have a provision for arbitration if an agreement can't be reached by the time new airplanes are supposed to show up. Does yours?